Why Trump Got It All Wrong in Hanoi

President Trump's diplomatic engagement with North Korea is built on a false assumption, that being that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is interested in "development". Development, as President Trump understands the term is anathema to the North Korean leader. He doesn't want that kind of development because that kind of development would destroy everything that his family has "achieved" in North Korea.

Creating a North Korean tourist industry, a la Donald Trump, would mean that the country started to swarm with Otto Warmbiers. The Kim regime would have to order in hundreds of thousands of body bags to handle the return trips for large numbers of tourists.

Of course one doesn't expect Donald Trump to put two and two together, but people at the State Department and the sane portions of the CIA must be deeply chagrined by what the president is putting the country's image through.

People often refer to North Korea as "the Hermit Kingdom", but that romanticizes them too much.

North Korea is the "Albania of Asia".

Albania was, for decades the most backward country in Europe, a communist hold out long after other communist countries had thrown in the towel on that particular unworkable system.

Enver Hoxha presided over (stifled) Albania for forty years. Three years before his death an assassination was attempted, but failed.

Now that Hoxha is gone Albania is known mainly for being an organized crime hub, moving drugs, guns and white slaves into clandestine networks in Europe.

North Korea will not change until the Kim dynasty is REMOVED.

China tried to hold a card up its sleeve, in the person of Kim Jong Un's half brother. He was an alternative option for them, if Kim Jong Un got to be too much trouble for China to handle easily.

Kim Jong Un realized the trouble his brother represented and had him assassinated, but aside from providing a lurid spectacle of atavistic political brutality, the incident also serves to highlight the fact that not only does Kim Jong Un not want "development" of the sort "the Donald" specializes in, but China too does not want that sort of development for North Korea.

They want a continuation of the family dynasty and as pointed out earlier, development is anathema to that sort of administration, mainly because it requires delegation of authority and devolution of power in the society . . . plus large numbers of body bags for tourists.

So you want regime change eh? Like we did in Iran, Iran, and pick a country in central america. mmmkay.

Plus...albania doesnt have nukes or China backing it up.


I was actually reading an article that walking away really puts pressure on China as Xi knows the US aint playing on trade anynore.
Thats 1000x more important than NK.....and may even push them to negotiate.

a reply to: ipsedixit

I agree that there is no incentive for nth Korea to make a deal and certainly will not back down now they have functional nuclear weapons, even if they are subpar that's irrelevant, they will do the job.

Trump has messed up big-time here and judging by his way of " negotiating " this will not be last time he puts his foot in his mouth over such matters.

a reply to: ipsedixit

I think it's unlikely that you know more about NK and KJU than all the intelligence analysts that have been studying them for 30 or so years.

originally posted by: watchitburn
a reply to: ipsedixit

I think it's unlikely that you know more about NK and KJU than all the intelligence analysts that have been studying them for 30 or so years.

But Trump ignored what his defense analysts said, that Un would simply pretend to agree and would continue doing what he had previously planned.

His father and grandfather did the same.

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: watchitburn
a reply to: ipsedixit

I think it's unlikely that you know more about NK and KJU than all the intelligence analysts that have been studying them for 30 or so years.

But Trump ignored what his defense analysts said, that Un would simply pretend to agree and would continue doing what he had previously planned.

His father and grandfather did the same.

Shhh this is the chess master in action, Kim will soon give up the nukes and personally thank Trump for relieving him of them.

The issue of what will happen in North Korea is a very hard one to answer. The fact of the matter is that everyone is terrified of what would happen if the Kim Regime collapsed.
Let me back up a little. There is no chance of forced regime change and anyone who thinks that it's possible has been smoking something. The North Korean Army is decades behind the US and the South Koreans (their tanks are mobile scrap, their planes are antiques and their ships are effective deathtraps) but the one thing they do have a lot of is artillery, a lot of which is dug into bunkers in the mountains and hills North of the DMZ - and in range of Seoul. Only an idiot would declare war.
The various Kims have been running the country into the ground for decades now, as the droughts of the 1990's and after show. The country is effectively one huge prison camp, run with great brutality. It's also decades behind the South - which is a problem.
The South Korean Government does not want unification, because that would mean spending a horrific amount of money on the North - it would make German Unification look like a walk in the park economically speaking. According to the various observations made by visitors, the average North Korean is anything up to 3 inches shorter than average South Korean, due to the former having a noticeably poorer diet, power is mostly restricted to the cities and up to 97% of the roads are unpaved.
The Chinese Government does not want the Kim Regime to collapse, because that would mean refugees fleeing the country going North into China (the DMZ is a bit of a barrier to South Korea as it's full of mines).
No-one knows how this is going to play out.

a reply to: ipsedixit

He doesn't want that kind of development because that kind of development would destroy everything that his family has "achieved" in North Korea.

Exactly! Trump was trying to sell Kim Jong Un on development, and told him his country could be bustling like Vietnam is! That's the last thing Kim wants. He'd have free thinking people coming around questioning his godhood and talking about the nonsense of democracy and free markets!

In a county where the president gets 90+% negative coverage virtually everything he does or doesn't do is all wrong.

I'm sure most resident ATS armchair foreign policy experts will agree with you OP.

Kim Jong Un willing to sit down with Trump again, North Korea state media says

www.foxnews.com...

originally posted by: AngryCymraeg
The issue of what will happen in North Korea is a very hard one to answer. The fact of the matter is that everyone is terrified of what would happen if the Kim Regime collapsed.
. . . . .

The Chinese Government does not want the Kim Regime to collapse, because that would mean refugees fleeing the country going North into China (the DMZ is a bit of a barrier to South Korea as it's full of mines).
No-one knows how this is going to play out.

I wouldn't say they are terrified, but I think China would step in to shore up the North Korean government if the Kim family lost control. China might actually be the cause of that eventuality at some point. I'm sure they have plans for it.

Having said that, I don't think things would change much. I think it would become clear that President Xi does not share President Trump's hopes for the region.

I see this whole confrontation in Cold War terms. The Chinese and Russians (who supplied Kim with missile hardware) have taken advantage of a mood in international politics that is unrealistic. Everyone on our side of the Cold War has decided to believe that the Cold War is over, up until recently that is. In the Cold War, as long as the geopolitical tectonic plates were grinding together in Europe, things were relatively quiet in other places and Asians could get down to making money.

Unfortunately the Cold War has heated up in Asia. I think the biggest problem in this part of the world is that Japan does not seem to realize or accept what is going on and is not willing to discuss installing ICBMs on their property, only a short flight from China.

The real confrontation here is with China. Trump's job is not to reason with Kim. It is to reason with Japan.

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: watchitburn
a reply to: ipsedixit

I think it's unlikely that you know more about NK and KJU than all the intelligence analysts that have been studying them for 30 or so years.

But Trump ignored what his defense analysts said, that Un would simply pretend to agree and would continue doing what he had previously planned.

I was all for being pragmatic about this peace efforts when they started to offer a glimmer of hope.

Hell, I'd be OK with us saying we'll lift sanctions for six months if you promise to show real improvements, and every six months we'll reconvene look at inspector reports ect.

I wasn't thrilled with opposition so willing to sh## on the idea when we hadn't even given any real concessions to North Korea.

That said, this is starting to look like the old playbook of North Korea. We have to be realist about the situation, and it may be time to start holding them to the fire again given their record for displaying a willingness towards unneeded aggression.

I understand them having rhetoric against the US, we still have troops on their border, but firing missiles over countries is way beyond rhetoric, and often times the countries threatened didn't instigate North Korea.

a reply to: ipsedixit

Kim does want development. He said so in his New Years speech. And the easing of sanctions is his only route to getting there. But you are right, I don’t think he wants the sort of capitalist development Trump has in mind.

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: ausername

Funny their government came out and said trump LIED again !!!!!!
WTF rump roast....

Good god that man is just sick in the head... He needs to go... Yesterday....

Could you do better?

And if so what would you suggest instead of a one liner response Silly?

Lags

originally posted by: Lagomorphe

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: ausername

Funny their government came out and said trump LIED again !!!!!!
WTF rump roast....

Good god that man is just sick in the head... He needs to go... Yesterday....

Could you do better?

And if so what would you suggest instead of a one liner response Silly?

Lags

Trumpers got duped again and now they seek to deflect from the truth that trump sold them out and never had any intentions of negotiating with nk in a serious manner.

Sanctions were issued in steps. The nuke programs were built in steps.

Yet somehow when it comes to removing both the only way potus thinks it can be done is all at once.

Good jopb potus your lover just dumped you and now nk knows you were taking the piss.

a reply to: chr0naut

I am one of those analysts. The difference here from last presidents is that this president has proven to follow through on what he says.

Kim jong un cares about one thing, maintaining power. If he thinks he's going to get annihilated if he pursues the same course of action, he will capitulate in a way that gains him the most he thinks he can get.

This president isn't past presidents and Trump walking away like he did shows he isn't going to do things based on lip service like past presidents.

What he needs to do now is a strategic strike on nuclear facilities to show he's really serious and WILL follow through.

Karen

So you're saying Trump should've just let Kim Jong Un keep sending his missiles over Japan and testing underground nukes?

Because ya know, that's what NK was doing before Trump started with the talks. Now, I know you guys have been fed with false propaganda for 3 years now and your head is not thinking clearly. I get it, and that's no reason to feel ashamed.

But just answer me this and I might change my opinion.

1) Trump wanted full denuclearization, and nothing less. Do you agree with him?
2) Kim wanted all sanctions pulled, without full denuclearization. Do you agree with him?

See, my opinion is that he saw a bad deal and walked out of it. Maybe Kim is trying to be smarter than us, but your President ISN'T giving him anything.

Y'all should stop listening to the crappy narrative the media is pushing, that Trump is being Kim's pawn or lover (yea, CNN actually used this term).

Trump gave Kim nothing so far, and he probably won't, unless he sees a commitment with full denuclearization.

You can all keep hating him how much you want, just be an honest person and praise him for a good deal. Or you can show me why it's such a bad deal to not give Kim what he wants.

I'm all ears.

a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

a reply to: ipsedixit

Your right. We shouldn't even try. We should just forget them (again) and hope for different results.

LOL

personally ive felt that kim is just doing this to use as a bargaining chip with his communist buddies. ive had this feeling since the first talks they had which resulted in practically nothing and again we get noting this trip. im starting to wonder if having talks is even in our best interest at this point.