Meteor? Space Debris? Something else?

a reply to: UncleTomahawk

One source:
aerospace.org...

a reply to: FireballStorm

This is not unusual at all, although to those who do not follow/study the field it might seem to be since you/they are not seeing fireball reports all the time.

There was time when scientists called these rare events and they did not happen all of the time.

originally posted by: SeaWorthy
a reply to: FireballStorm

This is not unusual at all, although to those who do not follow/study the field it might seem to be since you/they are not seeing fireball reports all the time.

There was time when scientists called these rare events and they did not happen all of the time.

The frequency of fireball meteor events has not gone up. Granted, there are short periods when meteors and fireballs are more common due to Earth passing through a point in its orbit where there is more cometary debris than usual, but overall the number of events has stayed steady over the decades.

People only THINK there are more because more events are being reported to more people. There are two reasons for this:

1.) There are more cameras today than ever before (webcams, security cams, mobile phones) able to capture these events,

and just as importantly

2.) The news of these events is now spread to the general public globally via the internet, rather than these events being just reported to the public locally/regionally.

For example, 30 years ago a fireball seen in Germany probably would have only caught some local attention by the eyewitnesses and maybe the local news. If that happened today, there is a decent chance that some camera somewhere captured the event, plus knowledge of the event could be known by anyone with internet access.

Another example is this very sighting described on this thread. If the OP saw what they saw 25+ years ago, there would be no similar outlet for them to tell the world what they saw. The only people in the general public who would have known about this particular fireball reported by the OP would be the OP and any other eyewitnesses to the event.

The rest of us would be unaware. Add to that other similar people seeing similar events and reporting it on the internet, and soon it seems that there are a lot more fireballs than in the past.

originally posted by: SeaWorthy
a reply to: FireballStorm

This is not unusual at all, although to those who do not follow/study the field it might seem to be since you/they are not seeing fireball reports all the time.

There was time when scientists called these rare events and they did not happen all of the time.

You are correct that fireballs were once thought to be relatively rare. What you have to keep in mind (as well as what Soylent pointed out) is that it is only relatively recently (in the last 15-20 years) that concerted efforts were made to set up sky monitoring networks.

Once set up, it takes a while (many years) to collect enough data so that it's meaningful or significant. Once you have enough data, it can take months or years to analyze.

So, taking the above into account, as you can imagine, the true picture of what is going on has only just started become clear over the last decade or so, and we are still making new discoveries all the time in the feild, although I think we now have a pretty good "baseline" with which to compare future observations with.

a reply to: NephraTari



up there in the North tier of USA you are within range of those Canadian refugee compounds manned by the ISIS ? Syrian terrorists that the Canadian PM insists on bringing in to Canada at 1 million per year.


betcha that was a RPG or a shoulder fired Man-Pad missile those militant radicals have...probably just training now but wait till the Go-Ahead is signaled for those 10s of thousands holed up in remote Canadian Platoon sized compounds hidden in the country side to conduct insurgency against USA along with China/Russia/Cuba invasion forces...

a reply to: FireballStorm
www.sott.net...

www.sott.net...
American Meteor Society Graph

a reply to: SeaWorthy

Ahh, that old chestnut! Well, this has been almost discussed to death in the past here on ATS, and the answer is still the same. Soylent pretty much explained it in his post above, but I'll try to add a little more detail.

The reason why we can't conclude, from the data in those charts you posted, that there is a change in the rate of fireball class events, is because there are simply too many variables.

Would you agree that the internet/social media has, in general, made people more aware of fireballs, and that they can be reported?

That is a variable. If the above is true, then even if the rate was the same in the early 2000's, we would expect more reports wouldn't we?

It's a problem because we can't adjust for the fact that people's behavior is changing, which can (and has) obviously heavily skewed the result/outcome.

In order to get meaningful data which can tell us about the actual rate (not about people's behavior when it comes to reporting such events), data collection effectively needs to be automated, which removes most of the variables.

That is where the camera networks come in. They automatically collect data without (for the most part) human intervention, and thus without any bias. That is one of the ways we can get accurate data about what is actually going on in terms of the rate of fireballs.

There are other ways too, such as studying craters on the Moon, but that is quite a course measure, and only tells us what is happening over long time scales, not over the course of decades as the data from automated camera networks can.

Is it starting to make a bit more sense now?

One other thing perhaps worth noting (if you were thinking it?), is that fireball report data was never intended to be used as a gauge for how much we get hit by mid-large sized objects. It is however a great way of gathering data on individual events, and helping to track down any fragments which might have made it to the ground, among other things.

It also tells us a great deal about how people perceive and react to such events, revealing many "secrets" about the discrepancy between what people see and what actually happened - which has ramifications for controversial subjects such as UFOs. Fireball reports make very interesting reading

a reply to: FireballStorm

Ahh, that old chestnut! Well, this has been almost discussed to death in the past here on ATS, and the answer is still the same.

Yes I have seen the arguments. At my age I will go with my own instincts. I spent a lifetime not seeing a fireball and since 2012 I have seen 3 major ones. No need to express your view further I get what you are saying I am disagreeing.

originally posted by: SeaWorthy
a reply to: FireballStorm
I spent a lifetime not seeing a fireball and since 2012 I have seen 3 major ones.

So what? As I've stated before on here, my own initiation with this subject, just over 2 decades ago, involved witnessing literally 100's of fireballs over the course of 6-7 hours. From my perspective we reached a peak at the end of the last century, and it's been all downhill from there, although I still catch perhaps 5-10 per year with my own eyes.

So who is right? Surely my perspective is just as valid as yours?????

originally posted by: SeaWorthy
a reply to: FireballStorm
No need to express your view further I get what you are saying I am disagreeing.

I guess not...

Oh I see what you're doing. Post a few charts which you know are out of context and therefore misleading (as was explained to you before), and when the truth of the matter (that the charts are useless for gauging fireball rates) is once again brought to light, all the charts/data gets abandoned, and it's basically back to "well, it seems like it must be an increase to me".

Well, that is the reason we don't rely on you (or any person for that matter) to gather data, where it is important to get an accurate result with out the bias that a human would introduce.

Also, I will happily express my views here. This is not your private thread. You can't shut me up, and stop me from attempting to bring facts/reason/logic to a debate. It is of course your choice if you want to disagree or not, but that won't stop me from pointing out the flaws in your logic. This is an open forum after all.

Have a great day (or night rather)!

a reply to: FireballStorm

loL

Also, I will happily express my views here. This is not your private thread.

honestly I AM VERY SORRY IF THAT IS WHAT YOU THOUGHT I MEANT. I SIMPLY MEANT I HAVE LOOKED AND I HAVE LOOKED AND I HAVE MY OWN EXPERIENCE AND IF THE LONG REPLIES ARE FOR MY SAKE IT IS NOT GOING TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE WE SIMPLY DISAGREE ABOUT THE INFORMATION.
DANG hit the stupid caps again

a reply to: SeaWorthy

I have appreciated your input in this thread. Don't let anyone make you feel like what you have contributed was not welcome.. especially by the OP ! I was really just wowed by this whole experience which may seem odd to some considering my past experiences shared here, but this was my first fireball sighting and it was very exciting. It has also settled the idea that I need a dashcam as that would have most certainly caught the object for posterity whatever it was.. debris or meteor.. I may never know.. but it was still a great experience.

a reply to: St Udio

I honestly do not know what you are referring to.. but I can assure you it is highly unlikely as this area has not one but 2 military bases within a 40 mile range on either side.. so I seriously doubt it was a terrorist missile. they don't fall and disintegrate without an explosion. at least to my knowledge. THanks for the theory though!

a reply to: Phage

That is a handy link! thanks for sharing. I don't see anything documented for the late afternoon of Feb 8th there but could there be some that are missed? btw.. nice to see you! I can always count on you for sound scientific analysis.