Deflation is coming and you can't run from it

originally posted by: Metallicus

originally posted by: toysforadults

originally posted by: projectvxn
This is what they've been trying to accomplish with the rate hikes at the Fed.

We shall see. Deflation is great for savings, not so much for everything else.

I'm actually not sure what the Fed is trying to accomplish at this point because inflation was flat last year and they kept raising rates anyway.

Raising interest rates is suppose to be a tool to slow inflation down not cause deflation.

They were / are trying to destroy the Trump economy to help with Midterms and 2020. Globalists don't like Trump and they especially don't want a strong U.S. economy since they are actively trying to destroy predominantly European countries as a precursor to increasing their Global control of all humanity.

could very well be true, talked to a lot of Europeans on social media recently and they ain't such happy folks anymore

originally posted by: toysforadults

originally posted by: projectvxn
a reply to: toysforadults

Deflation. Seems like all the CBs are pitching for deflation. I have to wonder if this will be measured deflation, or out of control deflation.

We'll see.

yeah see here's the thing though, I believe that they are disconnected from average America.

they are so busy crunching numbers that they are not in fact making their choices based on how it affects individual households but they are reacting to the market on a macro level and this is where the flaw begins.

They are so disconnected from everyone they don't know what's happening in the real world anymore.

This is one of the major flaws in a centrally planned economy.

They are not disconnected. They know exactly what's going on. More than you or I do anyway. They have been engineering these bubbles and busts for a long time now. You can be sure they are making money from this racket.

The only thing I can give an opinion about is the iPhone. These are way overpriced. Other phones in Asia has demonstrated success at a lower price point. Now Apple must compete or go away since they don't have a wide range of products and they're not offering much in the line of innovation either. I believe this is not really related to the real estate market and the fed.

originally posted by: Metallicus

originally posted by: toysforadults

originally posted by: projectvxn
This is what they've been trying to accomplish with the rate hikes at the Fed.

We shall see. Deflation is great for savings, not so much for everything else.

I'm actually not sure what the Fed is trying to accomplish at this point because inflation was flat last year and they kept raising rates anyway.

Raising interest rates is suppose to be a tool to slow inflation down not cause deflation.

They were / are trying to destroy the Trump economy to help with Midterms and 2020. Globalists don't like Trump and they especially don't want a strong U.S. economy since they are actively trying to destroy predominantly European countries as a precursor to increasing their Global control of all humanity.

It is rather hard to ignore that angle , will see as the year progresses I guess.

However, it was Trumpy boy who selected The current Chairman Jerome Powell.

originally posted by: toysforadults

originally posted by: projectvxn
This is what they've been trying to accomplish with the rate hikes at the Fed.

We shall see. Deflation is great for savings, not so much for everything else.

I'm actually not sure what the Fed is trying to accomplish at this point because inflation was flat last year and they kept raising rates anyway.

Raising interest rates is suppose to be a tool to slow inflation down not cause deflation.

I can give you a guess.

Hint: He currently resides in the White House.

originally posted by: toysforadults

originally posted by: projectvxn
This is what they've been trying to accomplish with the rate hikes at the Fed.

We shall see. Deflation is great for savings, not so much for everything else.

I'm actually not sure what the Fed is trying to accomplish at this point because inflation was flat last year and they kept raising rates anyway.

Raising interest rates is suppose to be a tool to slow inflation down not cause deflation.

Hmmm, makes me wonder if they are doing it to sabotage Trump because they do not like him. I know for a fact that the powerful dudes who pull all the financial strings here in the UK really do not like him. He is not an insider. He is a maverick. Is it their weapon against Trump's economic success? Is it to sabotage his presidency by a deliberately manipulated deflation?

It would be very sad if this is the case. I think he has gottten on the nerves of some investors, stopping them making a killing in China. At least Trump has scruples. He really does care about America. The Fed only care about the Fed or so my observations tell me.

If there is a recession of any kind the voters will disown Trump as they are pretty fairweather, mostly. How sad it would be if the Fed can "take out" a President by sobotaging the economy. Different kind of assassination to the JFK one, but still an assassination.

Then suddenyl a shining insider Democrat light shines and the Fed go all amorous again! That is the problem with private nation banking. Same problem here in the UK.

originally posted by: interupt42

originally posted by: Metallicus

originally posted by: toysforadults

originally posted by: projectvxn
This is what they've been trying to accomplish with the rate hikes at the Fed.

We shall see. Deflation is great for savings, not so much for everything else.

I'm actually not sure what the Fed is trying to accomplish at this point because inflation was flat last year and they kept raising rates anyway.

Raising interest rates is suppose to be a tool to slow inflation down not cause deflation.

They were / are trying to destroy the Trump economy to help with Midterms and 2020. Globalists don't like Trump and they especially don't want a strong U.S. economy since they are actively trying to destroy predominantly European countries as a precursor to increasing their Global control of all humanity.

It is rather hard to ignore that angle , will see as the year progresses I guess.

However, it was Trumpy boy who selected The current Chairman Jerome Powell.

yes but the Fed makes monetary policy based on it's interactions with the BIS and not on our needs it needs ot be abolished

a reply to: toms54

that's what it seems like the more I learn about the market the less I trust the power structure

originally posted by: Malak777

originally posted by: toysforadults

originally posted by: projectvxn
This is what they've been trying to accomplish with the rate hikes at the Fed.

We shall see. Deflation is great for savings, not so much for everything else.

I'm actually not sure what the Fed is trying to accomplish at this point because inflation was flat last year and they kept raising rates anyway.

Raising interest rates is suppose to be a tool to slow inflation down not cause deflation.

Hmmm, makes me wonder if they are doing it to sabotage Trump because they do not like him. I know for a fact that the powerful dudes who pull all the financial strings here in the UK really do not like him. He is not an insider. He is a maverick. Is it their weapon against Trump's economic success? Is it to sabotage his presidency by a deliberately manipulated deflation?

It would be very sad if this is the case. I think he has gottten on the nerves of some investors, stopping them making a killing in China. At least Trump has scruples. He really does care about America. The Fed only care about the Fed or so my observations tell me.

If there is a recession of any kind the voters will disown Trump as they are pretty fairweather, mostly. How sad it would be if the Fed can "take out" a President by sobotaging the economy. Different kind of assassination to the JFK one, but still an assassination.

Then suddenyl a shining insider Democrat light shines and the Fed go all amorous again! That is the problem with private nation banking. Same problem here in the UK.

yup and just like Schiff says Trump will shoulder full responsibility

originally posted by: Bluntone22
The apple cult following is cracking.
About time.

And people have been over paying for homes for a while now, its bound to bite them in the butt eventually.

Autos are next.
$75k for a fricken truck.....hell no.

And the value drop $30,000 the second you drive it off of the lot.

originally posted by: toysforadults

originally posted by: burdman30ott6
Well, the can was kicked down the road in 2008, so here we are. Personally, I'm a fan of deflation... but I'm not an investor, I'm but a saver. From a non-credit using consumer's perspective, deflation is a wonderful thing.

I actually totally agree with you. We NEED a deflationary period. We have for a while. If there was a solid correction and the Fed didn't rescue all the bad investments then maybe we could have a shot at a stable economy again.

The strength of the dollar presents it's own problems but overall I agree with you.

And I totally agree with you as well.

Other pressures aside, we have needed a real cooldown for at least a decade or two.

My Aunt is predicting this too.

You may consider it anecdotal, but she has run our family finances for the last 50 years or so and we've never really had bad times.... on her 40th anniversary we had a family reunion/investors party and she had averaged a 13% return year to year over that time. That was about 12 years ago.

As someone who has no debt per say and only one trading investment right now, It's not going to really hurt me at all.

Unless oil hits $27 a barrel.... LOL

But yes, in this case I think you are entirely correct.

originally posted by: Lumenari
Unless oil hits $27 a barrel.... LOL

None of us in Alaska see humor in that idea.
That would be a doomsday scenario.

Agree with you OP, looking like a head and shoulders on most stocks and starting to see the cancelling of the right shoulder, haven't seen this since 2008, but hey was wrong before... which was 2007..

originally posted by: burdman30ott6

originally posted by: Lumenari
Unless oil hits $27 a barrel.... LOL

None of us in Alaska see humor in that idea.

That would be a doomsday scenario.

It really isn't.

In the Bakken oil field, this is what would happen:

Operating costs go over net profit.

Wells shutter in.

6-8 months later, when reserves flatline and demand goes through the roof, you unshutter at about $68-70 a barrel.

You ride the wave, up to $100 a barrel, put in new wells, drill baby drill, get in some more Nat Gas infrastructure.

Then you are back in business, it settles in at $60-70 a barrel and you ride the summer peaks, shutter in what you have to in the winter.

Just business.



ETA... when all is closed and doom is on the horizon, throw some money into one of the medium oil companies that are stable.

WPX was a good choice last time for me.

dup post

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: toms54

that's what it seems like the more I learn about the market the less I trust the power structure

You and me both..it certainly can be manipulated

There are many things affecting the market right now that make it hard to say with any certainty whether this will be controlled or uncontrolled. Even if everything was done correctly it still would be hard to predict what will happen tomorrow and there are simply too many variables.

The market is a place for the brave right now. Timid souls should probably stick to bonds and stable funds rather than risk the farm on questionable gains. This is NOT the place for emotional traders. You. Will. Lose. Plain and simple.

That being said I think 2019 has some potential, but I have a gut feeling that we need to take one more step back before moving forward in measurable increments. We will continue to see the typical vacillation along the way but overall I believe (for no good reason I can fathom) there will be at least one more setback before any substantial gains are made. That puts me firmly in the emotional trader category. Which is why I am in bonds and currencies right now more than anything else. To be honest, I have one fairly substantial chunk of capital waiting for a large cap investment. Another 8 to 10 points down and its time to buy. After that I am in it for the long haul. And I have a feeling it will be a long long haul.

a reply to: Lumenari

The main issue really is that asset values (probably mostly due to inflation and bad policy by the Kensyian government to offer corporate welfare) have ran away from the general public

If that issue corrects we will be in much better shape

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: Lumenari

The main issue really is that asset values (probably mostly due to inflation and bad policy by the Kensyian government to offer corporate welfare) have ran away from the general public

If that issue corrects we will be in much better shape

I agree, with a minor caveat...

Keynesian policies might have actually worked.... in essence, a government (or business) should save in boom times, spend in busts.

When the government adopted Keynesian policy, what soon happened was that our government spent in the boom times, spent in the busts.

So it wasn't really a good test run, as it were.

Although I prefer Hayek's thoughts on the matter as more realistic.

That will hurt the manufacturing industry if the dollar gains strength. Overseas sales will plummet.

And it looks like a good time to buy a house soon if prices fall.

a reply to: toysforadults

The stock market just show how fear quickly spread in public when presented in media.
And we live in a time of doom porn and fear mongering. So out of nothing comes somehing.