DOW Sinks Over 800 Points Today; Futures Down Over 1,000 for Tomorrow

As I write this, the Dow Jones Index is down approximately 615 points with 40 minutes left of trading in the day



This is a mere 2.3%, so it isn't huge when you are looking at the index as a whole sitting at around 26,000, however there are a number of concerning things we are seeing play out:



**US Treasury Yields continue to rise - the 10 year was at 3.4% yesterday and is hovering at around the same right now

**The Federal Reserve needs to raise the Federal Funds Rate (currently at 2.25%), which means it costs a lot more to maintain debt, which governments, individuals, and companies have loaded up on after 10+ years of "cheap" money with near-zero interest rates

**The S & P 500 has had the most "down" days in a row since sometime in 2016 (not a huge talking point, but notable nonetheless)

**As I mentioned in B, the US government has loaded up on debt (as have many other nations), and consumers are also loaded up on debt in the forms of student loans, auto loans, credit card debt, and mortgages


ETA: After hours trading has the DOW sitting bruised up a bit at 831.83 points down, or a 3.15% drop. We'll have to see how the week finishes up.

Keep in mind that a 10% drop would constitute a "correction", so this isn't even a significant correction yet.

DOW Futures are now down over 1,000 points for tomorrow, that would be a total of over 1,830 points if the DOW closes that low tomorrow: MarketWatch

Tomorrow looks to be off to a rocky start for US equities! CNBC Futures Charts

I look forward to hearing from my fellow market watchers and ATS friends about what we are seeing. The next 2 days will be telling.

Is this the begin if a bull market? Is it still the calm before the storm?

Is this nothing major at all and we will see things recover in a few days/weeks? Let's hear it!

a reply to: FamCore

From what I've read, many are speculating that this trend has to do with US and China trade talks, and the FED's decision to raise interest rates, but more importantly indicating that more raises are to come in the future.

The latter is probably the case IMO, large companies are going to aim at aggressively dealing with any debt on the books, which will mean growth in stock won't be as lucrative as it has been.

If it drops much more by week's close, I bet there is a strong open next week to buy cheap(ish) stocks once things start to settle down.

I think Treasury yields are going to put a hurting on the housing market which will begin to ripple throughout the rest of the economy. Mortgage rates are solidly at 5% right now. With the inflation of home prices, people are going to start stepping back on purchases as it gets more and more expensive. Mortgage and real estate industries are laying people off left and right now.

I think a lot of the market run up is irrational exuberance.

Fed should have raised the Fed Funds rate years ago. They kept it too low for too long and I think it resulted in economy painting itself into a corner.

I just hope people took advantage of the boom over the past few years Obama through Trump and deleveraged their consumer debts.

a reply to: FamCore

oh my, may have waited too long to switch 401k to bonds..... will have to monitor over the next couple of days.

The market has been sideways since the end of January (January Effect). I don’t see today’s loss portending anything of substance. As far as daily percentage gain/loss, it’s well within 2 standard deviations. Look for the sky to start falling when that yield curve is inverted — still a ways to go before that happens.

I do believe there is some frothing, but the president and his team have managed the economy pretty damn well. Definitely deserves the lion’s share of credit w.r.t. the health of the economy.

Probably due to the hurricane hitting.
It'll close between -250 to -200.

Edit: Ignore above....-740 now.

Watch it REALLY drop if Dems get the House.

Well the US is just on her last legs. Spending 1 trillion more than they have each year and nations worldwide waking up on the reality that the US doesn't got much going for. Starting trade wars (&real ones) and tensions (w Russia etc) (more weapons to sell).. alienating other nations (even good allies) and so on just making it all that more obvious.
So the economy is doing great! yea with over 1 trillion more spending then they have in the pocket/year, sure!
It's really a miracle that the stocks did so well against all odds for such a long time. Of course this latest drop isn't all saying still. All that spending is making it look like everything is great and it's creating tons of new jobs! I can give lots of people allot of money (if I could) and create jobs with doing so and tell everything is great!

You also have the states, which are mostly in big debts, it isn't just the government which is overspending. Those states are like EU country's in the EU.
Germany alone comes close to the US with exports worldwide in money, just 1 state really in the EU coming pretty close too the whole of the USA in exports worldwide!

Hard to tell when the realization comes the US is really broke and has nothing going for but it's getting pretty close.

It's like Tesla really, hype and belief in nothing much.

Tillray is still making money.

Thats a weed stock.

a reply to: FamCore

Wow, its erratic in these closing minutes. Down ~750, then 650, then back down 750. Now 810.

a reply to: FamCore

thanks Obama.

originally posted by: C84K2
a reply to: FamCore

Wow, its erratic in these closing minutes. Down ~750, then 650, then back down 750. Now 810.

If you watched it during the big drop in February you saw swings just like that as well. High frequency trading, algorithms, or just plain human emotion may all be playing a part.

At one point, the DOW had it's biggest drop in history, but then corrected (here's a thread I did about that, and the high-frequency algorithmic trading if you're curious: thread)

(I didn't mention the "plunge protection team", but got to keep that factor as a real possibility as well)

DOWN -832 !!!!

Panic !!

Lock the windows !!

😃

a reply to: FamCore

A correction was inevitable. We recently set a record for the longest bull market in history, if memory serves correctly. That can't continue forever, and when these things change, it's generally a violent change at first.

originally posted by: xuenchen

DOWN -832 !!!!

Panic !!

Lock the windows !!

😃

A properly paranoid person would already have the windows locked. Get with the program.

originally posted by: odzeandennz
a reply to: FamCore

thanks Obama.

We disagree often, but thanks for the chuckle.

Ford Mo Co expecting massive layoffs

finance.yahoo.com...

Oil prices could possibly explode soon.

When the market imploded in 2007 it started in 2005 with similar occurrences. The auto industry is a good indicator of things to come. Usually car sales are the first thing to get hit and the last thing to recover when the economy tanks. I'm from Detroit I've been watching it happen for 40 years.

The best time to buy in to the market are on days like this with big drops.

Amazon is down $300 a share from it's high.

Google is down $200 a share from it's high.

And so on.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

Large companies have already used the tax breaks that were provided by president doofus that was meant to trickle into the economy for record stock buybacks. They were already ahead of the curve. The diehard trumpers that think he is trying to get rid of the swamp and make the life of the everday man is crazy. He is trying to improve the life of the business. That is his background, and even though he acts like an idiot he knows what he is doing and has his supporters understanding the wrong story.

Bottom line is in the end.. The rich get richer (In this case the corporate worlds) and the rest get worse.

Just starting to see the impact of that now while we rode the wave of previous policies.

a reply to: wantsome

A barometer that I watch. is one of our local companies that manufacture pipe for the development industry. Whe their sales are strong , I find that my sales will be strong for about 18 months. If they drop in 18 months or so my sales drop. Right now they are running wide open and we are booked months ahead.

originally posted by: neo96
The best time to buy in to the market are on days like this with big drops.

Amazon is down $300 a share from it's high.

Google is down $200 a share from it's high.

And so on.

The best time to buy into the market is when it drop 8 9 10,000 points. If I would have bought in with 20 grand back in 07 I'd be a rich man right now.