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“This is the first time in 10 years — and I’ve been working on this 10 years — that I have come out in front of a bunch of people and said what we think the casualty levels are going to be,” Buck told the City Council, department heads and about 40 audience members during a two-hour briefing on emergency preparedness.
“And the National Guard supports the numbers.”
The six-week casualty projections for Clallam County break down as follows:
• 800 to 3,000 dead from the earthquake — structural and debris strikes.
• 1,000 to 5,000 dead from the 30- to 40-foot tsunami that would inundate low-lying areas.
• 2,700 to 5,500 dead from entrapment and isolation.
• 200 to 4,000 dead among the fragile population and those with special needs like supplemental oxygen.
• 1,400 to 6,500 dead from a lack of food or water or from exposure to the elements.
Exactly when the earthquake strikes — and experts say it is not a matter of if, but when — will go a long way to determine the final death toll, Buck added.
The last major earthquake on the 800-mile long Cascadia subduction zone off the Northwest coast occurred on Jan. 26, 1700, scientists say.
Geologists believe there is a 10 percent chance that another 9.0 earthquake will happen in the next 50 years, Orr said.
“If we have an event, it could affect 7 million people,” Orr said of the regional impacts of a megathrust earthquake.
A large section of Port Angeles — the entire area east of C Street and north of Eighth Street — is expected to experience moderate soil liquefaction in the earthquake, according to Buck’s slides.
The downtown core, which was built on fill, will experience severe liquefaction and the tsunami, Buck said.
“You can expect anything that’s built there to collapse, either through foundation failure, piling failures or just flat liquefaction,” Buck told the council.
“Seventy minutes later, the tsunami — and we think it will be in the 30- to 40-foot range — will come in and it will destroy anything that’s not already destroyed.”
We present a 3-D model of upper mantle seismic discontinuity structure below Cascadia using a receiver function Kirchhoff migration method. A careful analysis of the primary and multiple reverberated phases allows imaging of the Juan de Fuca plate dipping below the North American continent.
This article presents a seismic performance evaluation framework for reinforced concrete (RC) buildings, comprising shear walls and gravity frames. The evaluation is undertaken within a performance-based earthquake engineering framework by considering regional seismicity and site-specific ground motion selection.
The outer coast of Washington State is exposed to significant seismic and tsunami hazard. A Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) event is expected to cause high earthquake intensities and tsunami inundation resulting in considerable infrastructure loss, inundation of developed land, and degraded functioning of coastal communities. One area of particular concern is Pacific County, located in southwest Washington, where over 85% of the population is expected to experience severe shaking intensities. This paper establishes the pre-disaster passenger and freight transportation patterns and the damaged post disaster road network in Pacific County.
The company went as far as to interview native american locals. A group they interviewed near the coast said that many natives drowned from the 1700 tsunami, while inside cliff side dwellings that were quite high up.
Recent investigations at the mouth of Seaside Creek in Mendocino County revealed over six centuries of marine inundation events interspersed with cultural use. The well-stratified sequence at CA-MEN-1818/H reflects resource collection visits that began around A.D. 1400 and were interrupted by a noteworthy depositional event possibly linked to a tsunami emanating from the A.D. 1700 Cascadia temblor. Use by Native Americans during the operation of the Mendocino Reservation and intensive occupation by a family of mixed Wiyot and settler descent after A.D. 1900 also were affected by other tidal surges.
The study examined the Lake Creek-Boundary Creek and Sadie Creek faults along the north flank of the Olympic Mountains, and concludes that there were three to five large, surface-rupturing earthquakes along the faults within the last 13,000 years.
...one occurring around 2900 years ago and one occurring 1300 years ago, were likely of magnitude 7 and magnitude 6 to 7, respectively.