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originally posted by: BeefNoMeat
a reply to: Greggers
True about the population size, my bad, I was doing back-of-the-envelope math and used the entire population because I knew that number and failed to remember not everyone can vote -- plus I didn't know the entire population of eligible voters and the sample size of 1069 would've captured the same voting split with 320M voters.
I could google it easy (probably will), but do you have an idea of the voter participation rate in Presidential versus mid-term elections? How about the cohort split (e.g. the number of persons over 18 that constitute the voting population) of eligible versus ineligible voters? Again, I can always google it, but I enjoy the conversation so it's more an attempt at extending the discussion...thanks in advance.
originally posted by: Davg80
a reply to: darkuniverse
someone should start a poll on ATS to see what way the ATS public sway, hard to know the truth these days, i never believd brexit would happen, primarily because of the human condition of fear of change, and i am sure HC will win, but i want trump, simply because he is crazy enough to go after the demon puppeteers of this world. TRump - change in my opinion, whether that change is pos or neg, may well be revealed soon enough.
originally posted by: Greggers
When Trump loses, will you come back and acknowledge that scientifically conducted polls use reliable methodology, while Facebook polls have no statistical relevance?
Since Trump won, can you come here now and acknowledge that practical data analysis is an art and not a science?
The assumption that any given set of data represents the system as a whole in it's entirety is what lead the Clinton campaign towards focusing their strategy on wasteful efforts.
There's always information within the system not presented in the statistics.