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Current polling suggests that Trump only needs to flip one more state to win the Presidency

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posted on Sep, 15 2016 @ 03:05 PM
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Fivethirtyeight.com have a really useful view of the state by state race:





What this chart shows is that Trump is currently on track to flip a number of states to red, including Iowa, Florida, Ohio and Nevada. He's also close in a number of other blue states, including a couple on the east coast that he was not expected to challenge in.

What is interesting about the chart represented is that New Hampshire, Trump's first primary win, could end up being the state he needs. It's currently the most likely to flip to red of Clintons current leads. The latest poll in NH has Clinton up by just 1%, with the average of the last 3 polls giving Clinton a +5 lead. The other important thing about NH is that fivethirtyeight.com show it as the number one state for voter power index (i.e the power of a single vote on the overall state result).

Still a long way to go, but what was once bleak for Trump only 3 weeks ago is now a knife-edge election. If Trump holds his current state leads and flips NH he will be President.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com...
edit on 15/9/2016 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)




posted on Sep, 15 2016 @ 03:10 PM
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Debates.

We'll see how the debates go.



posted on Sep, 15 2016 @ 03:11 PM
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No matter who wins, I'll get to see all the bitching here, live on ATS.



posted on Sep, 15 2016 @ 03:13 PM
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I imagine there are some "deplorables" that would normally not vote going to vote just for spite this year.



posted on Sep, 15 2016 @ 03:14 PM
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a reply to: UKTruth

A knife edge election that still has Clinton forecasted (within the very source you quoted) with a 65% change of winning 270+ electoral votes? I'm not sure you and I have the same idea of what a neck-and-neck race is supposed to look like...

You do know that even a spread of 5 percentage points is still like 15 million people right?



posted on Sep, 15 2016 @ 03:14 PM
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Viva El Presidente!

I mean, cool, Good for Trump. I hope if he does win he actually implements his common sense foreign policy. That's the main reason I want him to win after all, since US domestic policy doesn't affect me very much (to my knowledge anyway).



posted on Sep, 15 2016 @ 03:14 PM
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a reply to: Orionx2

They've been deployed?



posted on Sep, 15 2016 @ 03:25 PM
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Polls......where we're going we don't need polls.



posted on Sep, 15 2016 @ 03:26 PM
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originally posted by: Annee
Debates.

We'll see how the debates go.


I don't think Hillary is medically fit enough to participate,not going by her last collapse in public or her last few public appearances. Regardless of what her latest medical report would suggest.
edit on 15/9/16 by Cobaltic1978 because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 15 2016 @ 03:33 PM
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originally posted by: Annee
Debates.

We'll see how the debates go.


Will she do it without her 'secret' earpiece and clandestine whispers?



posted on Sep, 15 2016 @ 03:39 PM
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I'm not looking forward to a Trump styled fascist dictatorship; But as I expect he will sell out to the neocon Corporate Oligarchy and continue the wars for Profit. Business as usual....Trump alone won't be able to do a damn thing without GOP support and apparently, they hate his guts. And the democrats will do exactly what the republicans did to Obama. stalemate.




I however have changed my tune and do see Trump as pulling this deal off. I'm not looking forward to eating my shoes or that big plate of crow.


edit on 15-9-2016 by olaru12 because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 15 2016 @ 03:41 PM
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a reply to: olaru12

You little devil, you.

edit on 15/9/2016 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)

edit on 15/9/2016 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 15 2016 @ 03:46 PM
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originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: UKTruth

A knife edge election that still has Clinton forecasted (within the very source you quoted) with a 65% change of winning 270+ electoral votes? I'm not sure you and I have the same idea of what a neck-and-neck race is supposed to look like...

You do know that even a spread of 5 percentage points is still like 15 million people right?


The current head to head spread is 1.8% according to RCP and 2.3% according to fivethirtyeight.com, not 5%.
That is margin of error level.
edit on 15/9/2016 by UKTruth because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 15 2016 @ 03:49 PM
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a reply to: Krazysh0t




You do know that even a spread of 5 percentage points is still like 15 million people right?

Wouldn't that require 300 million registered voters?



posted on Sep, 15 2016 @ 03:50 PM
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originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: UKTruth

A knife edge election that still has Clinton forecasted (within the very source you quoted) with a 65% change of winning 270+ electoral votes? I'm not sure you and I have the same idea of what a neck-and-neck race is supposed to look like...

You do know that even a spread of 5 percentage points is still like 15 million people right?

Yeah, and the other 95 percent is still like 300 million people. Right?

soulwaxer



posted on Sep, 15 2016 @ 04:31 PM
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a reply to: UKTruth

I long predicted Trump cant win. It will bea very tight race, and a tight race the Dems can steal. He would have to win Ohio by a large margin and Florida as well.

Barring a health issue, its HRC to win. And, dont forget the debates. The Dem picked moderators will make hash of Trump.



posted on Sep, 15 2016 @ 04:34 PM
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originally posted by: TonyS
a reply to: UKTruth

I long predicted Trump cant win. It will bea very tight race, and a tight race the Dems can steal. He would have to win Ohio by a large margin and Florida as well.

Barring a health issue, its HRC to win. And, dont forget the debates. The Dem picked moderators will make hash of Trump.


Debates will be important for sure - I just heard Facebook are deciding the questions! Hope I have that wrong.



posted on Sep, 15 2016 @ 04:54 PM
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a reply to: Krazysh0t

More like 6.66 million.

Assuming voter turnout was as high as 2012 election.




posted on Sep, 15 2016 @ 05:01 PM
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Hey, Trump's getting closer, polls matter again!

Let's ignore the fact that for weeks we heard that polls were the work of the MSM in the tank for Clinton.

Ironic.



posted on Sep, 15 2016 @ 05:02 PM
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a reply to: Gryphon66

Polls do matter, it tells us what story they are trying to tell, or in many cases what story they think they can get away with.



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