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POLITICS: Exit Poll Results Explained

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posted on Jan, 19 2005 @ 10:54 AM
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For months now we have been hearing comments from the Democrats that there was fraudulent voting in the last presidential election. This claim was mostly based on the fact that there were differences in exit polls results and actual vote totals. According to this report, Kerry's results were overstated simply because more Kerry supporters participated in the exit polling than did Bush supporters. One other contributing factor that was mentioned was the early leaking of the exit poll numbers to the internet, which also contributed to the conspiracy theories.
 



www.cnn.com
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Exit polls overstated John Kerry's share of the vote on November 2, both nationally and in many states, because more Kerry supporters participated in the survey than Bush voters, according to an internal review of the exit-polling process released Wednesday.

The report said it is difficult to pinpoint precisely why, in general, Kerry voters were more likely to participate in the exit poll than were Bush voters. "There were certainly motivational factors that are impossible to quantify," the report said.

Problems with the numbers first surfaced on Election Day, when exit polls showed Kerry with a 3-point lead nationally and an edge in some key battleground states. Those exit poll results were leaked and became widely known through the Internet.




Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


Finally, we can put and end to all the claims of voter fraud based on exit poll results. According to the report, it is still unclear why miore Kerry supporters participated in the exit polls. It states that there could have been a number of motivational factors, but that they are difficult to quatify. The fact that the release of data on the internet contributed to the appearance of voter fraud is well born out by the sheer number of such threads here on ATS.

Truly, time to let the election go and move forward.




posted on Jan, 19 2005 @ 12:25 PM
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This is hardly proof that there was no election fraud, and we can't put the though of fraud behind us. This article is a theory, just like countless other theories out there.

However, the question they have is why did more Kerry voters participate in the exit polls than Bush supporters? The answer is simple. Because there WERE MORE Kerry supporters.



posted on Jan, 19 2005 @ 12:34 PM
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Originally posted by sensfan
This is hardly proof that there was no election fraud, and we can't put the though of fraud behind us. This article is a theory, just like countless other theories out there.

However, the question they have is why did more Kerry voters participate in the exit polls than Bush supporters? The answer is simple. Because there WERE MORE Kerry supporters.



Moveon.org "planted" liberal liars at the exit poll stations. This is a fact proven shortly after the election. The exit polls were a typical liberal LIE.


Odd

posted on Jan, 19 2005 @ 12:39 PM
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Originally posted by sensfan
This is hardly proof that there was no election fraud, and we can't put the though of fraud behind us. This article is a theory, just like countless other theories out there.

However, the question they have is why did more Kerry voters participate in the exit polls than Bush supporters? The answer is simple. Because there WERE MORE Kerry supporters.



I've said this before, and I will say it again.

There were Kerry supporters on college campuses and on Internet message boards. In small-town America, there were not.

I spend three-quarters of my time in a very liberal college town, and the other one-quarter in various other parts of the state and country, and I can tell you that there were virtually no "Kerry/Edwards" bumper stickers in the vast majority of the New York and North Carolina towns I visited.

You support yourselves and one another strongly... but you seriously overestimate your own numbers.



posted on Jan, 19 2005 @ 01:13 PM
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come on...

we all know that President Bush is behind all of this..... don't worry, it'll come out soon...



posted on Jan, 19 2005 @ 02:36 PM
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I am willing to bet alot of people told those taking the exit polls said it is none of your business who I voted for. When that happened more then likely they just said thats one vote for kerry.



posted on Jan, 19 2005 @ 02:40 PM
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Yeah and people lie too, if you're an elderly person and you're assaulted by a college aged exit poll worker with a peace-sign shirt and a bandana on her ., you'll probably either say "no comment" or lie and say you voted for Kerry.



posted on Jan, 19 2005 @ 02:48 PM
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Who does these exit polls are they real or are they made up. Do people lie about who they voted for that would change the numbers.
If Die-Bold makes ATM machines that disperses money and a receipt why cant' they make a voting machine that prints a receipt also, what is so technically difficult about that?



posted on Jan, 19 2005 @ 02:55 PM
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Originally posted by Sauron
Who does these exit polls are they real or are they made up. Do people lie about who they voted for that would change the numbers.
If Die-Bold makes ATM machines that disperses money and a receipt why cant' they make a voting machine that prints a receipt also, what is so technically difficult about that?


An exit poll is just that a poll. People can say anything they want - truth or lie. They can say they voted for Kerry when they didn't really vote at all. They can even say they voted for Kerry to 5 people working on the same poll to make it look like 5 people voted for Kerry when maybe it was only one. See, that's why all this emphasis on exit polls is just a load of BS.

Regarding the design of polling machines, I'm sure that if the manufacturers of the machines had been told that a receipt was a requirement, they would be there now. Guess no one thought that was important at the time the machines were ordered.



posted on Jan, 19 2005 @ 02:59 PM
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This whole article can be disregarded as propaganda/opinion by a simple logic analysis:



Originally posted by centurion1211
One other contributing factor that was mentioned was the early leaking of the exit poll numbers to the internet, which also contributed to the conspiracy theories.


"Early Leaking," can be mistaken from speculation. There are no pyshical basis to call any information on the internet a "leak," except for exit polls and their accuracy is such that we don't base an election winner off of them.



 



www.cnn.com

The report said it is difficult to pinpoint precisely why, in general, Kerry voters were more likely to participate in the exit poll than were Bush voters. "There were certainly motivational factors that are impossible to quantify," the report said.


Exit polls are not being explained if the lion statement is, "difficult to pinpoint precisely." That sets you up for speculation and opinion based statements. Hardly proof of anything.




Problems with the numbers first surfaced on Election Day, when exit polls showed Kerry with a 3-point lead nationally and an edge in some key battleground states. Those exit poll results were leaked and became widely known through the Internet.




Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


Problems with the numbers should have been evident with the amount of people being confronted with the option for an exit poll - I never saw any one asking any questions after I left my polling location.


Finally, we can put and end to all the claims of voter fraud based on exit poll results.


Why? Because we can't "precisely pinpoint" a leading factor?


According to the report, it is still unclear why miore Kerry supporters participated in the exit polls. It states that there could have been a number of motivational factors, but that they are difficult to quatify.


Convenient that the final answer is "difficult to quantify."



The fact that the release of data on the internet contributed to the appearance of voter fraud is well born out by the sheer number of such threads here on ATS.


The introduction of electronic polling is a highly skeptical move in that there is no paper trail. Elections this close can as such be manipulated easily and conspiracy theorists will always suspice it.


Truly, time to let the election go and move forward.


I disagree.


I don't mean to sound abrupt, however this doesn't say anything substantial. Merely relagating the inaccurate exit polls as a higher participation of Kerry supporters is a redundant interpretation of the data, not a reason to explain the difference of results.



posted on Jan, 19 2005 @ 03:00 PM
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The originator of this thread has it all wrong.

It's not fraudulent voting that's the problem, it's fraudulent counting - along with deliberate programs to disenfranchise voters by making it near impossible to vote.

This "news" does nothing to end concerns at all. For every report that puts up simplistic hypotheses about poll participation rates, there will be several others that point to the known scientific validity of exit polls with the 2000 and 2004 methods. Exit polls are but one measure of potential fraud and corruption in the recent elections, the other evidence is overwhelming. Exit polls will continue to be used as a check on validity throughout the world.

Truly, time to fix the corrupt US electoral system and deny ignorance.



posted on Jan, 19 2005 @ 03:05 PM
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Originally posted by MaskedAvatar
The originator of this thread has it all wrong.

It's not fraudulent voting that's the problem, it's fraudulent counting - along with deliberate programs to disenfranchise voters by making it near impossible to vote.

This "news" does nothing to end concerns at all. For every report that puts up simplistic hypotheses about poll participation rates, there will be several others that point to the known scientific validity of exit polls with the 2000 and 2004 methods. Exit polls are but one measure of potential fraud and corruption in the recent elections, the other evidence is overwhelming. Exit polls will continue to be used as a check on validity throughout the world.

Truly, time to fix the corrupt US electoral system and deny ignorance.


A true liberal. You can tell that by even when they are presented with evidence to the contrary, they choose to continue believing in conspiracy theories.

Golden Gate Bridge for sale here - cheap!



posted on Jan, 19 2005 @ 03:07 PM
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No, not a liberal.

You presented no new evidence here at all. The actions of Blackwell in Ohio, like Harris in Florida, speak for themselves.

Have you got any more evidence, or just stupid insults now?



posted on Jan, 19 2005 @ 03:08 PM
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what a crock. these exit polls were no different than any other exit polls, and the degree of margin should remain consistent. a crock of steaming bull droppings. crock.

it has been proven on videotape that valid democrat votes were literally being thrown in the garbage. audio of a technician 'fixing' the computers for the recount is also a part of the collective video record.

fascists stole your country, and some of you are too biased and uninformed to realise it. maybe i should say your 'based' and 'uniformed', instead.



posted on Jan, 19 2005 @ 03:15 PM
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Originally posted by centurion1211
[A true liberal. You can tell that by even when they are presented with evidence to the contrary, they choose to continue believing in conspiracy theories.

Golden Gate Bridge for sale here - cheap!



Do you just pick and choose the posts you read? There is no evidence presented here!!



posted on Jan, 19 2005 @ 03:18 PM
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To verify the legitimacy here i think we should sit back and question why Kerry voters out numbered Bushies when it came to exit polling.

Questionable reasons,

1. Kerry/Dem voters care more for their country?

2. Kerry/Dem voters have the extra time it takes to poll?

3. Kerry/Dem voters out number Bush/Rep but faced voting obstruction?

4. Bush/Rep voters do not enjoy participating in polls?

5. Impossible to get fabricated votes to show in person to take real-life polls?

6. Other?



posted on Jan, 19 2005 @ 03:25 PM
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People can also lie about who they voted for in an exit poll, but the motives for doing that are more than a little unclear.



posted on Jan, 19 2005 @ 03:40 PM
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Originally posted by MaskedAvatar
People can also lie about who they voted for in an exit poll, but the motives for doing that are more than a little unclear.


Oh, I don't know. Maybe they'd lie to purposefully distort the results. They might do that if they thought how they voted was none of anybody else's business.

There is another scenario which I've posted before that quite nicely explains how the exit poll results could have been skewed for Kerry - namely that in their exuberance and desire for Kerry to win, some dems got carried away and reported their votes to pollsters more than once.

Also, what about the pollsters themselves? Some, at least, must have had their own agenda for who they wanted to win.

Remember the principle of Occams Razor - the simplest explanation is usually the right explanation.



posted on Jan, 19 2005 @ 03:47 PM
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Originally posted by centurion1211
(1) There is another scenario which I've posted before that quite nicely explains how the exit poll results could have been skewed for Kerry - namely that in their exuberance and desire for Kerry to win, some dems got carried away and reported their votes to pollsters more than once.

(2) Also, what about the pollsters themselves? Some, at least, must have had their own agenda for who they wanted to win.



(1) How would that be possible?

(2) Why would exit poll people breach their ethics and professional standards? Are they selected or supervised in a way that enables them to lie about what voters have said?


Occam's razor points readily to fraud in this case, when you look at the totality of behaviors of the election officials in Ohio, particularly given statements by O'Dell at Diebold and the conflict of interest and constant stonewalling of Blackwell to prevent the count every vote and make every vote count "idealism".



posted on Jan, 19 2005 @ 03:47 PM
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Who you voted for is your choose thats why we do it privately.
Exit polls are, or should be just a broad brush snap shot , to give the political pundits something to talk about, until the results come in.
I also give different answers depending on who asks , just for devilment



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