Asteroid 2013 TX68 Could Be a Close Shave at Just 11.000 miles on March 5th

There's an amount of uncertainty as to the distance the object will actually pass due to the short period it has been observed but NASA have said it could pass between 11,000 miles or 238,854 miles take your pick , but they're fairly certain it won't hit us .... at least not this time , but it is due back next year (if it doesn't hit this year) and there is a slight chance it may hit us then.

Even if it did hit it isn't an extinction event object as it's relatively small at 100 ft but it could pack twice the punch of the 2013 Chelyabinsk object.

And according to NASA’s Center for NEO Studies (CNEOS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, it will be passing us again in a few weeks time, specifically between March 2nd and 6th. Of course, asteroids pass Earth by on a regular basis, and there is very rarely any cause for alarm. However, there is some anxiety about 2013 TX68’s latest flyby, mainly because its distance could be subject to some serious variation
www.universetoday.com...

If it does pass at its possible close estimate would it be visible to the naked eye ?

a reply to: gortex
1 mile is close, 11 thousand? Not so close.

a reply to: gortex

If it does pass at its possible close estimate would it be visible to the naked eye ?

Unless you can see the statue of liberty 11,ooo miles away, no.

(Insert Bionic Man sound)

originally posted by: Iamnotadoctor
a reply to: gortex
1 mile is close, 11 thousand? Not so close.

In astronomical terms it is next to nothing.

The moon is around 22 times further away than that.

originally posted by: gortex

If it does pass at its possible close estimate would it be visible to the naked eye ?

No, you have to remember that it is not an object that emits light. It is only when it hits Earth's Atmosphere that it 'lights up'.

So when you can see it with your naked eye, you better run for cover! :-D

a reply to: DupontDeux

Surely it would be illuminated by the sun , I guess the size would be the limiting factor unless it passes even closer than the estimates.

a reply to: DupontDeux
Was I talking in 'astronomical terms' ?
Obviously not. Why state the obvious ?

originally posted by: gortex
There's an amount of uncertainty as to the distance the object will actually pass due to the short period it has been observed but NASA have said it could pass between 11,000 miles or 238,854 miles take your pick , but they're fairly certain it won't hit us .... at least not this time , but it is due back next year (if it doesn't hit this year) and there is a slight chance it may hit us then.

Even if it did hit it isn't an extinction event object as it's relatively small at 100 ft but it could pack twice the punch of the 2013 Chelyabinsk object.

And according to NASA’s Center for NEO Studies (CNEOS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, it will be passing us again in a few weeks time, specifically between March 2nd and 6th. Of course, asteroids pass Earth by on a regular basis, and there is very rarely any cause for alarm. However, there is some anxiety about 2013 TX68’s latest flyby, mainly because its distance could be subject to some serious variation
www.universetoday.com...

If it does pass at its possible close estimate would it be visible to the naked eye ?

A direct hit on Raqqah would be brilliant.....

originally posted by: Iamnotadoctor
a reply to: gortex
1 mile is close, 11 thousand? Not so close.

In orbital terms that is hairbreath.

originally posted by: DupontDeux

originally posted by: Iamnotadoctor
a reply to: gortex
1 mile is close, 11 thousand? Not so close.

In astronomical terms it is next to nothing.

The moon is around 22 times further away than that.

I never understood why some people don't consider 11,000 miles close when referring to distances in the vastness of space.

originally posted by: gortex
If it does pass at its possible close estimate would it be visible to the naked eye ?

Not by a long shot. Its apparent magnitude at the nominal-distance close approach will be around 15, which is fainter than the maximum brightness of Pluto. In fact, it's closer to the brightness of Charon, Pluto's moon.

As always, it's fun to plug the known data into an asteroid impact calculator and see what it would have done to us had it impacted: Bang!

Parameters I chose:
Projectile diameter: 35.00 meters ( = 115.00 feet )
Projectile Density: 3000 kg/m3 (dense rock)
Impact Velocity: 17.00 km per second ( = 10.60 miles per second )
Impact Angle: 45 degrees
Target Type: Sedimentary Rock

Energy:
Energy before atmospheric entry: 9.73 x 10^15 Joules = 2.32 MegaTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth is 323.6 years


Atmospheric Entry:
The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 54000 meters = 177000 ft
The projectile bursts into a cloud of fragments at an altitude of 12800 meters = 42000 ft
The residual velocity of the projectile fragments after the burst is 7.84 km/s = 4.87 miles/s
The energy of the airburst is 7.66 x 10^15 Joules = 1.83 MegaTons.
No crater is formed, although large fragments may strike the surface.

Air Blast:
The air blast will arrive approximately 38.8 seconds after impact.
Peak Overpressure: 4420 Pa = 0.0442 bars = 0.628 psi
Max wind velocity: 10.2 m/s = 22.9 mph
Sound Intensity: 73 dB (Loud as heavy traffic)

~~~

So, all in all we're looking at a 1.83 megaton explosion at the altitude of around 13 km above ground, and some large pieces impacting the ground. If this happened over a city, there'd be some serious structural damage and maybe even some fatalities.

a reply to: crazyewok

a single celled microbe brushes 1 inch from your face.........

a reply to: wildespace

I determined nearly the opposite using your same results.

You have to remember 1,83 megatons is a lot, but it's way up in the atmosphere still. The 115ft object reached a critical point or air resistance where it could no longer maintain it's shape creating a shockwave with in the object. It would likely break up into mostly smaller pieces, and may further break as it continues. I always look back to bullets being shot into water, the faster it's moving the more it breaks into tinier pieces.

The smaller pieces carry much less energy, the air blast "may" break windows. 22.9 Mph winds are a day in early april/may....

Anything is possible, someone could be hurt or die. I do not how ever think it is a reality, or even likely at that size. I know you proposed a direct strike but it would more likely strike uninhabited land, than populated cities and even more likely than that wide open ocean.

If it is rocky it might not be so bad.
Bit if it was metallic, that would be a different story.

I guess an approximate comparison would be like trying to see a black 737 from 11,000 miles away so not with the naked eye.
It would definitely ruin your day though if it were to enter the atmosphere over your town, especially as butcherguy said, if it was metallic rather than rocky.

Hope it hits over a desert if it hits at all, some good research material to be had, plus some locals could get a few quid from it as well. Gotta look on the brightside.

originally posted by: Ghost147

originally posted by: DupontDeux

originally posted by: Iamnotadoctor
a reply to: gortex
1 mile is close, 11 thousand? Not so close.

In astronomical terms it is next to nothing.

The moon is around 22 times further away than that.

I never understood why some people don't consider 11,000 miles close when referring to distances in the vastness of space.

You make a very good point really, space is vast.

The nearest object, apart from satellites and a few rocks, to earth is the moon, which is about 240,000 miles away.
Mars at its closest is about 35,000,000 miles and that is the next nearest thing.
So 11,000 miles really is close in the grand scheme of things.

I suppose we consider it far away because lets be honest, not many of us take 11,000 mile walks every day.

originally posted by: Iamnotadoctor
a reply to: gortex
1 mile is close, 11 thousand? Not so close.

1 mile? Small single-engine planes can fly two miles up.

The Chelyabinsk meteor airburst occurred 18 miles up.

originally posted by: Iamnotadoctor
a reply to: DupontDeux
Was I talking in 'astronomical terms' ?
Obviously not. Why state the obvious ?

Well, it IS an "astronomical" topic, so, one could be forgiven for making the mistake of assuming that, just maybe, you just might possibly be thinking and or speaking in terms appropriate to the subject matter.

When the experts say it might be passing at 11k, the margin of error absolutely allows for the possibility it may impact our atmosphere or surface. So, it could very well hit our planet. Is that close enough for you to consider using the term "close" to describe it, astronomically or otherwise?

originally posted by: 3n19m470

originally posted by: Iamnotadoctor
a reply to: DupontDeux
Was I talking in 'astronomical terms' ?
Obviously not. Why state the obvious ?

When the experts say it might be passing at 11k, the margin of error absolutely allows for the possibility it may impact our atmosphere or surface.

The 11k estimate is the minimum, the nominal trajectory is much further away (311,541 miles) while the maximum is a whopping 8,887,280 miles away. ssd.jpl.nasa.gov...

Astronomers have been doing this kind of thing for a long time, when they say there's no risk of impact at this close approach - I tend to believe them.

Phil Plait chimes in: www.slate.com...

On March 5, an asteroid the size of a football field will pass the Earth. It'll miss us for sure, but by how much? The range is from 17,000 to 14 million kilometers! Why don't we know that more accurately? It has to do with how the asteroid was discovered.

And here's the interesting bit:

If it does pass only a few tens of thousands of kilometers away, the Earth’s gravity will change its orbit (it also may pass within 20,000 kilometers of the Moon, further altering the asteroid’s orbit), making it even harder to predict its future position.

All of this underscores our need to have more eyes on the sky.