Russian PAK-DA "stealth" bomber is serious slow mo

a reply to: darksidius

AT least they photoshopped the NASA sign away

a reply to: Zaphod58

So! It seems the Russians are stating they are having serious problems with the Tu-160 production restart. They are stating by 2023 they will have the first production birds done. That is a seriously bad bit of news for the PAK-DA.

Given the Russians' propensity for NOT stating bad news, this has gotta be really bad.

a reply to: anzha

Not surprised after the Su-34 problems a few years ago.

a reply to: anzha

Russia is a declining country. China is the rising country.

I find it far more likely that China has capabilities in development well beyond what is publicly acknowledged, and China will be able to manufacture them. Don't joke about Chinese quality---they make cheap toys of junk because that's where the money is. If there are incentives to make quality----and ripping off the Chinese Military may get you a chance to buy your own bullet as a bonus---quality will come.

In recent years their science & engineering has grown to be far superior than before. The quality of their academic papers is top level now---just 15 years ago, most papers by PRC scientists were superficial or low-quality clones of prior research. Not any more.

They have an optimistic assurance in their strategy, accomplishments and eventual superiority (like the USA in 1950's-1960's) based on a track record of honest success---not a snarling resentment like in Russia.

And most importantly---the government has enormous amounts of money and the will to spend it.

It might not be Cold War II, but it could be Chilly Spat with peer-level capabilities.

a reply to: mbkennel

I have three Yabbuts for China though.

1. Their economic model has reached its logical conclusion. They MUST change it or have an economic meltdown. They are going to get a recession, soon, and what happens then will be interesting. They already failed to reach the economic growth goal for 2015 (at least 7.0 %, but officially hit 6.9%, probably less) and its likely they will grow less and less. There are numerous great articles on this.

2. What happened to the US for China taking our manufacturing jobs is starting to hit China: Africa and India are cheaper to put factories in now than China due to wage convergence. With the coming automation, this is going to wipe out that even more (what economist friends and I call the robopocalypse).

3. They have a demographic cliff that's going to hit them within 3 years. They're going to get their equivalent of the baby boom retirement without the follow-on immigration the US got. The one child policy, while not as all encompassing as the media likes to portray it, is sufficiently blanketing to cause them issues going forward. This is especially in economics.

That said, the Chinese are going to be formidable. The question remains whether they can manage the transition from being the world's factory and the demographic change or not. I am not saying they cannot, but its a seriously tough nut to crack and its just as likely they won't as they will. Only time will tell.

Though I'd not bet against the US to adapt. We've been surprisingly good at it.

a reply to: anzha

I think the real question is if the Chinese power structure will be around long enough to be factor. They are closer to a 1991 Soviet style coup d'état than people think.
If that happens it could leave N. Korea out to dry and up against a wall. Things could get very ugly at that point.

That thing looks huge. They will probably have to build special runways for that. Everybody will know where they are parked. Not so stealthy on the ground.

a reply to: TamtammyMacx

Nothing is. It's hard to hide hangars.

a reply to: Sammamishman

I don't think the government will be toppled.

Just whether or not it might continue to grow at "mature economy rates" or stagnate like the Japanese.

I keep getting a smirk every time I hear about the Chinese taking over the world because it sure sounds like the 1980s and Japan. However, China has 10x the people. OTOH, they also have a demographic, real estate and economic problem that's very, very similar.

We'll see. We'll see.

a reply to: anzha

China also has a cultural attitude which is very different from Japan.

They are less conformist, more ambitious and more creative. I work with many Chinese scientists---much more like Americans than Japanese, except in work ethic.

Their economic problems are like the USA's economic problems in the 1930's, but less severe. Real, yes, but their fundamental core infrastructure: physical and personnel is real and formidable. They can make things that USA used to make and can't any more.

The USA was the manufacturing powerhouse of the world from 1915 or so, despite having the highest wages.

Everybody is getting scared about Chinese growth hitting 5% or 6% instead of 8% or whatever. Really?

It is 5% of a far larger base than just a few years ago. Their absolute growth is still enormous. USA would kill for that growth. Look at the big, long range, picture.

USA had -25% peak to valley by 1933 or something and they came out OK.

a reply to: mbkennel

Generally, I agree. However!

Before I get started, I Am Not an Economist, so some of this will probably come out wrong...my apologies.

There are two problems with the reported stats of 6 to 7% growth.

1. Most people don't believe it, at least economists. They think its cooked and could be as little as half that (the swedes stated that, iirc). IDK what to believe, just that the Chinese seem to be slowing down, even by their own admission.

2. IIRC, the Chinese need 7% minimum to keep full employment given their absorption of vast numbers of the still relatively poor, rural population. There is concern this may cause unrest.

Personally, I don't see china falling apart. My hunch is they are going to go through the same headaches the US did during the end of industrialization. Since they are a different country and culture, the results will be different, but not catastrophic.

Additionally, the world economic structure that made China's rise possible is fundamentally changing and its hard to predict whether or not it'll be hitting them or helping them. Or us for that matter.

I *DO* think the 'China will RULE THE WORLD' narrative is overblown.

And FWIW, the US overtook Britain to be the world's largest economy in the 1870s. Not 1914.

Thought I'd ad this video here.

Seems they came out with a render of the plane.

a reply to: grey580

Nothing like a giant winglet to make a plane stealthy.

a reply to: Zaphod58

That's also based off the wind tunnel model from about 4 years ago.

huh: so the Russians are recapitulating the Vulcan bomber...

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: grey580

Nothing like a giant winglet to make a plane stealthy.

lol. I was like WTH? when I saw those.

However I'm totally for them using them. Maybe they should ad two more facing down. You can't have enough winglets. lol