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Gillett co-authored the new research in pre-publication with Geophysical Research Letters. The findings show that aerosols have blunted 60 percent of the warming in the Arctic through the 20th century, a notable statistic given that the Arctic has still warmed at twice the rate as the rest of the planet.
This summer saw the fourth-lowest extent on record (and this winter also saw the lowest winter maximum on record). With temperatures projected to keep rising, it’s only a matter of time before the Arctic experiences an ice-free summer.
Going forward, aerosols — small particles that make up air pollution and reflect sunlight back into space — could continue to keep the northern reaches of the planet somewhat cool. Using a middle of the road carbon emissions scenario (which is a little optimistic given currently pledges) as well as rising aerosols, Gillett and his team show that the Arctic is likely to see an ice-free summer around 2057.
When his team ran the same scenario but capped air pollution at 2000 levels, ice-free summers in the Arctic started more than a decade earlier in 2045.
originally posted by: network dude
I am still not sure what percentage Man has in the great Climate Change debate, but it appears pollution and contrails/clouds are actually helping.
originally posted by: network dude
a reply to: smurfy
Yes, that was what I had leaned also. Though, as you said, the amount is unknown.
Did you read the article? This is saying the pollution and aerosols (that cause contrails), when factored into existing models, extend the life of the glaciers by a decade. It'll be interesting to see if this is the case.