Our Civilization does'nt need us all to work. Now what?

originally posted by: corvuscorrax
a reply to: HighDesertPatriot

So capitalism isn't failing it's other issues that cause it to fail?

Hmm sounds like... Communism?

The irony is insane. Communism gets corrupted and everyone wails that it's an unfeasible system that could never possibly succeed. Same thing happens to capitalism but it's not capitalisms fault! It's everything BUT capitalism!!!

And people don't even realize how stupid they sound.

When communism fell, I was reminded of what Scipio said while watching Carthage burn:

"And one day Rome."

originally posted by: dashen
Get a Job Hippy!
well, people of like mind can get together, start advanced communities that produce their own power, food, and life needs within a mile of their homes and use their free time to discover themselves, improve the world, and reach toward a better tomorrow

Yep and in the current state of affairs in some parts of the world doing just as you have stated could get one arrested.....its messed up world

No I am not interested in your dystopian future. I prefer to work for a living.

a reply to: Xeven

It isn't about stuff.

Some things are skills that no robot can really replicate nor ever will be able to. Which would you rather have doing surgery on your brain for example: a programmed robot or a human?

Who is better to make food or bake cakes? A programmed robot which is constrained by the parameters plugged into it, or a human who can experiment and innovate and create new dishes?

Will robots create new medical treatments and drugs? Design new cars? Open up new technologies?

Somehow I doubt it.

And why should the people who can do these things be constrained to carry the burden of the rest of the human race? What is the impetus to design, create, innovate? Sure people have a passion, but they also need to reward.

originally posted by: Xeven
What is next for us?

Population control by strictly limiting births (no need to kill anybody).
Self-replicating artificial superintelligence singularity.
Either immortality or death, depending on how our new supercomputer overlords see us in the grand scheme of things.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Capitalism does not need to be tied to current production or requirements.

Entrepreneurs will always create new markets, products and services that will enter into the supply and demand market.

If in a 100% service environment there will be persons who are better than others, thus increasing their demand.

There's just so many reasons why what you're saying is wrong but lets start with the fundamental relationship of supply and demand and the labor market:

What you're effectively saying is that labor supply increases labor demand and that's obviously not true.

I suppose you might be trying to make a point that other sectors of the economy will magically compensate for falling labor demand in others but what are you basing that opinion on?

I'm of the opinion that the key to continuing capitalism for the forseeable future without conditions devolving to the point of revolution might lay in decreasing the standard work week proportionate to the decrease in labor demand owing to factors like automation and computerization. I could be wrong, France's mixed results in doing this haven't been particularly inspiring but there's definitely things to be learned there.

There's also a lot of support among some economists for some sort of basic income. I certainly don't have all the answers and neither does anyone else — even the most learned and brilliant economists on the planet disagree with one another constantly. What's clear to me though is that a lot of people, particularly American libertarians, have completely irrational beliefs about the nature of capitalism; putting an almost religious faith in a mythical "pure capitalism" with "unregulated free markets" that inevitably self-organize and regulate themselves to the benefit of everyone.

a reply to: Xeven

A post-employment model has been created by more than one economist. This is an inevitablility that will require the extinction of our current value system (a person's production or wealth = that person's worth as a human).

It can be pretty simple, really:

- A nation reaches a point where the automatically-generated GDP creates a surplus and the need for labor is minimal.
- That nation gives each citizen an income sufficient enough for food, housing, bills, etc (flat, regardless of extra income).
- People will still create businesses in which the people will then spend the government money from. Those businesses will be the only thing taxed.

Basically, instead of the failed "trickle-down" model, it will be more like a "trickle-up" system. To hold on to the "every man for himself" economic culture we have now, society will collapse by the weight of the super wealthy.

a reply to: HighDesertPatriot

Why is there always a guy on here -- quick with the insult or inane opinion -- on just about everything?

Personally I can't wait for the state vector to collapse entirely. You rely on fake duality; worship it even. It's obnoxious.

The US economic system has been a hybrid market / socialism creation since its inception. Like everything in life, pure capitalism and pure socialism are merely points on a mathematical line; a continuum of experience that molds the economy in its own image.

Capitalism is awesome, and it certainly drives a certain kind of innovative egoism, but it isn't the be all / end all of reality. Far from it. We could, for example, modify capitalism so that the rewards for innovation are more evenly distributed amongst the people using the system, because all of them are vital to its function. When 90% of GDP growth since 2008 has gone to the top 1/2 of 1%, the "mix" if you will is borked, and needs modification.

Otherwise, working people won't buy your junk, or use your services, and eventually -- if the disparity continues long enough -- they will start killing those they perceive as "taking more than their share" for whatever they have in the driveway, or pocket.

This is civilization 101, folks. Only the willfully ignorant still believe the legions haven't crossed the Rubicon, and the horde isn't at their gate. There is no escape from history, no matter how much monopoly you play.

a reply to: ketsuko

Some things are skills that no robot can really replicate nor ever will be able to. Which would you rather have doing surgery on your brain for example: a programmed robot or a human?

It's a point of fact that robotic surgeons will eventually replace human surgeons. Surgeons are already augmenting their abilities with robots now. I'm sure you've heard of the Da Vinci Surgical System? There's already quite a few projects using AI for diagnosis and given the resources required to train new doctors and human fallibility, you can expect to see diagnostic AIs playing a major role in medicine in the next few decades.

Who is better to make food or bake cakes? A programmed robot which is constrained by the parameters plugged into it, or a human who can experiment and innovate and create new dishes?

What miniscule fraction of the people involved in the production of food are innovators creating new dishes or artisans decorating cakes? 1 in 1000?

Will robots create new medical treatments and drugs? Design new cars? Open up new technologies?

Somehow I doubt it.

You'd be surprised what can be accomplished with AI. I seem to remember you once mentioning that you had worked previously in some literary field or another? Are you aware that there are services selling computer generated sports and business articles?

I have actual experience relevant to this very topic. I have personally designed business software that has eliminated jobs — and not as an unintended consequence — I was contracted to write software to do what human beings had previously done. Believe me when I say that there are far fewer professions that are actually as resistant to computerization as people generally believe.

And why should the people who can do these things be constrained to carry the burden of the rest of the human race? What is the impetus to design, create, innovate? Sure people have a passion, but they also need to reward.

What about the 99.9% of the population who simply aren't capable of performing in one of the professions not at risk of being rendered obsolete by technology in the coming decades?

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: Xeven

It isn't about stuff.

Some things are skills that no robot can really replicate nor ever will be able to. Which would you rather have doing surgery on your brain for example: a programmed robot or a human?

Who is better to make food or bake cakes? A programmed robot which is constrained by the parameters plugged into it, or a human who can experiment and innovate and create new dishes?

Will robots create new medical treatments and drugs? Design new cars? Open up new technologies?

Somehow I doubt it.

And why should the people who can do these things be constrained to carry the burden of the rest of the human race? What is the impetus to design, create, innovate? Sure people have a passion, but they also need to reward.

Actually I would rather have a robot doing brain surgery on me if one has the skills. They would be far faster, better and more efficient at the job then a human. They also won't have the human frailties. Don't have to worry if they are stressed out about their life, are overworked and exhausted or just have an oops moment while moving around in my brain. Brain surgery is a bad example anyway as well as any surgery, since now many surgeries use a combination of robots and surgeons allowing the surgeon to perform small localized and complex surgery that human hands could never achieve. Such as the many forms of key hole surgeries being performed now.

And robotics will only get better and better. Eventually they will replace everything humans can do except create ideas, but unfortunately the bulk of people are not really that creative or inventive. Most people today live off simply doing jobs that need to be done, they aren't creating or innovating anything. Though there will always be a need for idea people, you don't really need all that many and as machines become more and more complex the idea people won't need the workers to build their ideas, the machines will do it better and faster.

And when you look at burgeoning technologies like 3d printing which is growing ever more sophisticated eventually the way we manufacture things will completely change. Eventually it will be machines building everything, because they will be assembling the objects at the molecular level. And no human hands will ever be capable of that. It's just the way it is since the industrial revolution humanity has been set on this path and it will not stop, machines are the future and will grow every better and more efficient.

Add in the eventual development of AI and even merging man and machine into a cyborg unit and machines will be capable of everything humans are even coming up with ideas. Sure it may be hundreds of years in the future, but it's already happening, look at the trends of technology and medicine look where they are going and you can see the inevitable conclusions.

And as far as passion, people only really need passion. Look through history at all the people who have devoted their life's work to profitless endeavors and stuck with it just because of passion. Look how many artists especially in earlier eras that barley lived above the poverty line eking by while painting. Many of the paintings that sell for millions today were painted by paupers while they were alive and why did they do it, not for money, but for passion. And even if people do need rewards, rewards can come in many forms, besides material gain. There is notoriety, recognition, just the satisfaction of achieving something. After all look at people who spend hours doing simple and meaningless virtual tasks just to get an achievement in a video game. Those achievements have no real value, but they do it anyway, because it has a perceived value to them.

Many people today fear that future, but whether they like it or fear it, they won't stop it. You can no more stop it then you could the industrial revolution, it's inevitable. Even if those who fear it move out to the country and become Luddites, the rest of the world will continue developing and advancing technology and will do it without them.

And you can doubt it all you want. Just like Lord Kelvin emphatically doubted that heavier then air flight would ever be possible. well we do have planes today. You can't stop technology, nor can you claim it will never be able to do something.

originally posted by: theantediluvian
a reply to: ketsuko
What about the 99.9% of the population who simply aren't capable of performing in one of the professions not at risk of being rendered obsolete by technology in the coming decades?

Not to mention that it just isn't possible, using the US as an example, that 300 million people can all be bio chemists, surgeons, or engineers.

For some reason the simple fact that we are quickly losing jobs, is something that is lost on people. If we refuse to accept the inevitability of what's coming, we will doom ourselves by our own technological creations.

It's like a group of people riding in a car. They've been driving for days looking at signs saying there's a cliff coming. They ignore all the signs and no one steers the car off its course. When the cliff comes, they all perish through deniability.

originally posted by: dashen
Get a Job Hippy!
well, people of like mind can get together, start advanced communities that produce their own power, food, and life needs within a mile of their homes and use their free time to discover themselves, improve the world, and reach toward a better tomorrow

Wow, someone that sees what is in the future. Tiny houses, community gardens, communal type living, all good things. I am old, so probably won't see it in my life, but then government can serve it's true function of infrastructure and common defense.

originally posted by: Metallicus
No I am not interested in your dystopian future. I prefer to work for a living.

But if you could live with a group of like minded folk, supporting yourselves, wouldn't that be working?

I concur Xeven

Capitalism will die. It is inevitable.

Massive inequality and environmental degradation is the result of this system. Greed, arrogance and zero empathy rules the day (I was one of those I admit).

Capitalism requires continuing population growth (customers) to achieve continuing profit growth.

According to various forecasts, world population will plateau at about nine billion at around 2050 and then it will either plateau or go into decline.

Think about that.

Empty houses (collapsed property market).
An old population base not working/unable to work.(no money to spend)
= Shrinking corporate profits (= Low confidence in markets = less investors = etc, etc...)
Shrinking tax base (No infrastructure investment, social expenditure etc,etc..)
Not to mention A.I. and the continuing replacement of jobs with machines, alternative energy and the effect this will have.
The profit economy will more than likely collapse. IMO needs to.

What next?

No-one really knows, but there are ideas out there.

Link Huff..
Link A J Johnson

For the idealist..

Link Jacque Fresco

The consensus is it will have to work parallel to what we have now rather than a complete and sudden collapse and the start of another type of economy. But I doubt the PTB and the financial elite would concur.

Serious, urgent and open minded discussion amongst the influencer's is needed (Yea right!)

Baby steps...but sooner rather than later

But WTF do I know

Kia Ora

originally posted by: BubbaJoe

originally posted by: dashen
Get a Job Hippy!
well, people of like mind can get together, start advanced communities that produce their own power, food, and life needs within a mile of their homes and use their free time to discover themselves, improve the world, and reach toward a better tomorrow

Wow, someone that sees what is in the future. Tiny houses, community gardens, communal type living, all good things. I am old, so probably won't see it in my life, but then government can serve it's true function of infrastructure and common defense.

That literally sounds like a nightmare for me. Living in some Government minimalist housing commune surrounded by a bunch of freaking hippies. Hopefully I won't live to see it either.

a reply to: Metallicus

Freakin' commie gardens is what I'd call em!

In all seriousness, what's wrong with community gardens? Do you have any idea how much produce arrives in this country from South American countries? Places where the labor is cheap enough that it makes sense for growers to have people hand stack 20 pallets worth of product on the floor and then palletize it in the US to fit an extra half pallet of product in a shipping container.

The fresh product like fruit is then fogged with methyl bromide to kill off any of the critters that might be stowed away. Methyl bromide is what was in the pesticide that poisoned the Delaware family on vacation in the Virgin Islands earlier this year.

Then there's the containers of crap from China including the not-rarely-enough arsenic laced apple concentrate coming from China.

Locally grown/raised is a win-win!

Besides, if you added guns, his idea of utopia doesn't sound that different from a militia compound with fresh produce.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

originally posted by: MystikMushroom
If no one can afford a product, the companies can't sell any products.

Then supply and demand takes over and the price of the product comes down.

That cut and dried huh.

If only it was so simple like that.

People can act like we still have capitalism.

I personally think we do not have capitalism anymore.

We have not had true capitalism for some time even.

Am I too much the purist?

We have fake markets, too much intervention, too much manipulation ... etc etc

Not capitalism. Not for a long time now, actually.

originally posted by: MystikMushroom
When has that actually happened? People just go into debt or work two jobs these days. I can't think of anything that has gone down in price...

Really? Nothing?

How much was a flat screen television when they came out? Desk top computers?

What do you think you could get a rotary phone for these days? Same price as 40 years ago?

Supply and demand always functions, even with outside interference (you get black markets), it is so simple in its operation and observable throughout history.

originally posted by: Metallicus
No I am not interested in your dystopian future. I prefer to work for a living.

But what happens in 30 or 40 years when there is no work for you?

We may be heading on a course with technology were there may be only a fraction of the jobs there are now.

What happens when there atr 7 billion people and only 500 million jobs?