The Rising Human Tides

Syria has a large proportion of its population which is migrating north. Whatever one might think of the reasons (war, ISIS, cruel governance), there is one fact that preceded the internal struggles… drought.

www.irinnews.org...

www.pnas.org...

www.theguardian.com...

But there are other places where populations are going to be on the move as well, for various reasons based on natural conditions.

Florida:

grist.org...

miami.curbed.com...

East Coast, USA:

www.salon.com...

West Coast, USA:

sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com...

usnews.nbcnews.com...

www.coastal.ca.gov...

www.bcdc.ca.gov...

I’ve coupled the situations found in Syria to possible scenarios in the USA because, primarily, the members here are mostly Americans. Fact is, such situations are repeating themselves across the planet.

The world is in a state where, depending on where you live, one may be forced to relocate and NO-ONE is going to be unaffected whether chased out by natural forces or not. Those masses migrating are going to wind up in places where there is a chance of survival.

So, with that in mind, here is my personal prophecy:

In decades, if the global food distribution systems becomes strained, many millions will increasingly be forced to move or watch their families starve. This is an untenable situation and I dare say no father or mother would stand fast and watch their children waste away. They will go on the move in the faint hope of preserving life itself.

Building fences will not deter them. Police and the military cannot hold them back in the long run. Violence will happen, but I say it is better to be shot and killed than die of starvation.

As the coming migrations increase, governments will come under increasing financial pressure, both in trying to stem the tides or provide humanitarian aid.

There are no happy solutions when entire countries fail.

Please dissuade me of this perilous view.

I only read the east coast link as that is where I am (kind of). I am looking forward to Atlanta having some ocean front property!

While I am sure what you wrote is happening, I don't think it will be within any of our children's or even great-great-great grandchildren's lives...

As far as migration....it will be a bit different in the US I think. We all speak the same language and live under the same laws and leaders as everyone else here (for the most part). I would hope that people would come together to fix things once broken, but my dad always asked if I "hope" in one hand and $hit in the other, which fills up faster?

originally posted by: Vasa Croe
my dad always asked if I "hope" in one hand and $hit in the other, which fills up faster?

Your father is a wise man. Mine always told me to never $hit in my back yard. I think the message is the same in both instances.

As far as your statement about our great-great-great grandchildren not being affected, I'm quite sure they already are by the influx of immigrants as the situation has been for their great-great-great grandparents, what with the many millions who have come to America from a pestilent and war-torn Europe as well as refugees from places like Viet Nam. Not making any connections to Central and South America, you'll notice... I'll leave that up to The Donald.

a reply to: masqua

Agreed that effects are already being felt. In other posts I've explained how I am witnessing the town I was born, raised and currently live in (for now) literally going down the crapper right before my eyes. When we purchase our home, it will not be in "my" town. I suspect that in about a decade, the place that was once a safe, friendly suburb will essentially be a no-go zone.
Very sad.

a reply to: eluryh22

I'm sorry to hear that. I myself was a family member that fled war-torn Europe in 1954, so I know about cutting the 'ties that bind' even though I was only 7 when I emigrated from Holland to Canada. My extended family overseas gradually lost meaningful contact regardless of visits back to the 'Old Country'. One just loses touch.

The growing numbers of people fleeing is on top of the 38 millions that were on the move at the end of 2014.

As of the end of 2014, 38 million people around the world had been forced to flee their homes by conflict and violence. Never in the last 10 years of IDMC’s global reporting, have we reported such a high estimate for the number of people newly displaced in a year.

This report is based on data and analysis gathered between January and December 2014 in 60 countries and territories across the world. Our research shows that the causes and impacts of displacement are multiple and often overlapping, including those related to disasters induced by natural hazards

www.internal-displacement.org...

PDF shows the countries affected last year and the numbers fleeing:
www.internal-displacement.org...

I'm sure there has been a dramatic increase over 2015, but the numbers have yet to be listed.

I discussed the issue with a person who wished WWIII would begin in order to alleviate the pressures the global community is beginning to experience.

I don't go along with that for one main reason: IF we did go down that path, a conventional war would increase the amount of people moving from a war zone to a conceived place of safety. The numbers displaced from their homes would increase from the estimated 60 millions today up to billions.

These people will be desperate and no amount of restrictions on movement will stop a tide of that size. They will come Hell or high water.

For one thing, why is Cali bent on building high speed rail instead of desalination?

Why is Syria bent on war instead of desalination?

If people seriously think this drought is the new normal, why aren't they building desalination plants and why aren't people demanding them?

Why are Cali ecoweenies bent on destroying Cali's water management infrastructure to restore natural water drainage?

Seems we are our own worst enemies, and when people make the beds they lie on, why should they be allowed to leave to come destroy other areas?

originally posted by: ketsuko

Seems we are our own worst enemies, and when people make the beds they lie on, why should they be allowed to leave to come destroy other areas?

Well stated.

About the 'allowing bit'. At the moment, the largest group on the move are those fleeing Syria and Iraq. The combination of war and drought is what's pushing these people and if my family was in the same situation, I guarantee that I would not hesitate to get my family out of that Hell too.

No-one is waiting to be 'allowed' out of Syria. They're just going.

originally posted by: masqua
a reply to: eluryh22

I'm sorry to hear that. I myself was a family member that fled war-torn Europe in 1954, so I know about cutting the 'ties that bind' even though I was only 7 when I emigrated from Holland to Canada. My extended family overseas gradually lost meaningful contact regardless of visits back to the 'Old Country'. One just loses touch.

The growing numbers of people fleeing is on top of the 38 millions that were on the move at the end of 2014.

As of the end of 2014, 38 million people around the world had been forced to flee their homes by conflict and violence. Never in the last 10 years of IDMC’s global reporting, have we reported such a high estimate for the number of people newly displaced in a year.

This report is based on data and analysis gathered between January and December 2014 in 60 countries and territories across the world. Our research shows that the causes and impacts of displacement are multiple and often overlapping, including those related to disasters induced by natural hazards

www.internal-displacement.org...

PDF shows the countries affected last year and the numbers fleeing:
www.internal-displacement.org...

I'm sure there has been a dramatic increase over 2015, but the numbers have yet to be listed.

I think you're probably entirely correct and just to add some information I'd heard on Al Jazeera TV yesterday. They made the statement, albeit not backed up, that there are presently 59 million people "on the move" around the world in the "Great Migration".

Again, I don't know where they got that number. Maybe the UN, but it certainly grabbed my attention.

Another interesting thing I saw yesterday was a report on Climate change and air pollution and they were comparing Beijing to LA while airing the typical unbelievably polluted air pictures from China and some from LA. (smog, I guess).
Anyway, they reported that LA has just appointed their first "Sustainability Director" and they interviewed him and he stated they want to reduce air pollution by 30% by 2030. He didn't say how in the world they were going to do that but as he was talking they presented views of gridlock on the LA Freeways.

I asked myself, "how in the world will they be able to do that" and then it hit me that the only way they can clean up LA that much, that fast is to eliminate the source of the pollution, i.e. the people driving to work and the way they do that is to pass regulations with fees and fines and levies so tough that the business employers are forced to leave LA and relocate elsewhere. So, my "guess" is that we'll start to see these "Mega Cities" actually shrink, and to shrink dramatically in terms of population and business counts.

So anyway my point is that not only will we see trans national migrations. We'll see internal displacements as businesses are forced to relocate to low density population areas.

Interesting times indeed!