Odds Favor a Greece Deal Failure and Defacto Grexit

The odds now favor the tentative deal struck over the weekend to “rescue” Greece, which many have correctly depicted as a brutal economic colonization of Greece by its lenders, coming unraveled. It’s hard to see how Greece could muddle through, given that a sketchy plan attribute to German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schuble over the weekend, that of a five-year temporary Grexit, was so obviously a napkin doodle rather than a plan as to be a negotiating chip and a taunt rather than a serious idea. But the lack of any alternative to the punitive plan that is starting to go pear shaped means that Greece would stumble into a Grexit utterly unprepared, with its banks unable to open at any foreseeable time in the future. That’s a game plan for utter catastrophe. If you think the unplanned Lehman bankruptcy was an unmitigated disaster, a Grexit would make that look like a walk in the park.*
www.nakedcapitalism.com...

Bookies all over the world are giving odds that are the opposite of what this article claims. I just think it's critical to consider all viewpoints before one comes to a conclusion.

a reply to: Profusion

3rd bail out in 5 years, what is it they say about attempting the same thing and expecting a different result? Insanity.

a reply to: Profusion

It will fail.....The fundamental reasons remain for the failure in the first place. Greece is a socialist utopia or so they thought and now it so far gone they only way out is a crash of the epic kind. Progressives cry about austerity but fail to understand why it happens in the first place.




What happens when you are not conservative with your money at home? If you do not follow a budget and take on debt you will fail in time.

There is a good reason why you tax people. This is what happens when you don't.

Understand the structure of what is happening. It’s essentially a three-part process: Greece passes mandated sets of bills on July 15 and July 22. Some key European parliaments approve must approve the weekend agreement. Separately, the European Commission, unable to find money to keep Greece afloat, as in not defaulting on the ECB on July 20. The only way it can find is to activate a dormant facility, the European Financial Stability Mechanism. In theory that should mean Greece gets its bridge financing, but as we’ll see soon that is not a given.

The bridge financing is essential because if Greece were to default on the ECB, the central bank could not lend to Greek banks under the ELA. That would be a death sentence to the Greek banking system. The big reason that Greece has been willing to prostrate itself is that it is desperate to get ELA funding back, hopefully Thursday after it passes part of its required legislation Wednesday,. It can then get its banks open again, ideally in some form this week before the damage to importers and the tourist industry becomes irreparable.

www.nakedcapitalism.com...

It seems that the three dates of July 15/20/22 will answer the question of feasibility.
a reply to: Profusion

Ofc it`s bound to fail. Thing is that EU can`t afford to lose Greece due to various reasons (geo strategic location, integrity of the union, leaving it to Russian influence, etc...) and the Greek politicians know that. It`s easy to do business this way...same thing will happen next time, only now Italy and Spain will want pardons also.

Just my opinion...

originally posted by: rossacus
There is a good reason why you tax people. This is what happens when you don't.

It is like akin to using your credit card and saving your cash and then pretending the money you spent on you credit card never really existed in the first place. It is faulty progressive logic and it always fails.

a reply to: rossacus

The article states that Greece only taxes about 30% of the population. They definitely need to tax everyone across the board. However, I think the main point of this showdown is the issue of PENSIONS...if the creditors can force Greece to lop off a large portion of their pension costs by forcing the people to accept pennies on the dollar...it will snowball across ALL COUNTRIES. The U.S pension showdown is coming!

a reply to: Profusion

There is a audio interview and text worth looking into on the subject . "Phillip Adams: “Schauble has been less than helpful of course he came into the weekend talks expecting and I quote ‘exceptionally difficult negotiations’ saying the figures the Greeks submitted were not believable while others were saying just the opposite. Can you explain why the finance minister seems to be seeking the dreaded Grexit.

Yanis Varoufakis: “I have a great deal of respect for Wolfgang Schauble, I think is the only person around the euro group that has a plan, I’ll just written an article about this which will appear in a German newspaper to???? on Thursday. Look Phillip, let’s be frank here, these are crucial moments, critical moments in European history and I don’t believe that will be judged anything other than harshly if we don’t speak out at this moment. Dr Schauble wants Grexit, he has been planning for it, he considered it to be an essential aspect of his plan for Europe, for a kind of political union that is now missing, a very specific kind of union, a disciplinarian one, one that is not a federation but one that is based on the capacity of a single fiscal overlord to veto national budgets and therefore to annul national sovereignty and he thinks that Grexit was essential for this because a Grexit would create the fear in the minds and hearts of French and Italian politicians in particular, to force them to acquiesce to the Schauble plan…

Crosstalk

Phillip Adams: …” So you’re saying that Greece is simply a pawn on the board”

Yanis Varoufakis: “Well it is. So what we have here is a major clash of titans between Dr Schauble on the one hand and Paris and Rome on the other and the Chancellor Angela Merkel has not committed one way or the other and Dr Schauble who’s been around for a very long time, he’s been here in the centre of the euro project from its inception, he’s not happy with the way that monetary union was not accompanied by a political union, he would probably would like to have a federation but he feels that he doesn’t have the political power to create one so he’s trying to what he considers to be, not me, what he considers to be the second best which must in his mind involve a Grexit that will inspire sufficient fear in Paris and Rome and possibly in Berlin too, in order to bring about that disciplinarian negative political union, negative in the sense that the overlord, the you know, the equivalent of the Federal treasurer will only have negative powers, powers to veto national budgets not creative powers, powers to transfer surpluses and to do a Marshall plan let’s say and the reason I’m saying all this Phillip is not because I have a theory it’s because Dr Schauble has told me so.” www.informationclearinghouse.info...

a reply to: the2ofusr1

Wow !!!?!!!

In another thread on Webster Tarpley (this week). Tarpley was cited by quoting Schauble making a offhanded joke to Sec. State John Kerry that was in the neighborhood of "want to trade Greece for Puerto Rico?"

class warfare at its finest. The imf is there to do one thing.....force nations into default so that bankers and investors can go in and steal everything not bolted down, and most things that are. All those yelling about taxes and pensions....garbage. The greeks are more productive and spend more hours at work than most of Europe. If you think otherwise you are a victim of propaganda. The greek people were not living high on the hog....they were getting no more than what hard working people deserve. Most of you have merely been conditioned to think that hard working people deserve no more than minimum wage with no social safety nets and with exhorbitant education and health care costs. The US debt is far beyond Greece's, and I guarantee that the majority of americans are not living beyond their means....most people live paycheck to paycheck, and not because they spend superflouosly, but because expenses are so high, and pay is declining....and yet we are told to think that this is the natural way.....all the while corporations rake in record profits.

Not a single one of you is in the ruling class. You don't have elected representatives...you have owners. And as long as you refuse to see the prison they hold you in, you are giving them the leash attached to your own necks, with a "thank you, master" to seal it off.

Kudos, kudos, to all of you who have not lived in Greece, but can judge the greek, who have not lived in Russia, but can judge the Russians, who have not grown up in the ghetto, but can judge the poor. You must truly be well developed minds and souls.

The greek "benefits" were surely no more than US benefits were 30 years ago....before the corporations took such a hefty percentage of the wealth created by our productivity. They are no more than your average European nation. And yet their interest payments are much more stringent than those given to Germany and Britain. Their repayment terms more draconian.

If you really want to know where greeces massive debt originated, look not at pensions and tax failure....look at military spending. Where Germany and france are their largest lenders, who bribed their corrupt officials to push through military loans, with the help of goldman sachs' fraud. The sum of their military payments and interest over the past 10 years is equal to 1/2 of Greece's debt. ANd then look at the terms of the "Austerity" imposed upon Greece by Germany, france, et al......that they must cut pensions, wages, social programs, but CANNOT cut military spending....which is going to those nations regulating the bailouts. Its all a scam, and you will not see it until it comes to you.

First the bankers came for Iraq.....but I didn't speak out because I wasn't Iraqi. Then the bankers came for Venezuela....but I didn't act because I wasn't Hispanic. Then the bankers came for Greece....but I didn't fight for I wasn't greek..... who is next? they have been trying for Russia, but brics and the SCO is well on the way to building a successful wall against them. So all the sooner they will focus on their own people, those of us here in the US, Britain, etc. Make no mistake, they started on us long ago, but soon it will be more in earnest. And then, perhaps, we will find some common ground with the greek commoners?

a reply to: pexx421

Not everyone belives the OFFICIAL propaganda. There are a few Americans that have travelled and think for themselves. Other than, "genocidal attack" on the Ugly Americans...that was a great post...thanks for insight on military spending.

This is a good doc.

originally posted by: SubTruth
What happens when you are not conservative with your money at home? If you do not follow a budget and take on debt you will fail in time.

What's happening in Greece is far closer to mirroring current conservative thought in the US. Greece is spending loads of money (in their case social programs, in our case military) but is constantly cutting taxes. In their case it's because no one pays them, and there's no system to ensure people pay them. The government has taken the view that they should just let people pay as little as they want, in the US we instead simply keep lowering them through acts to do so, or inflating them out of relevancy by never passing increases.

originally posted by: fshrrex
a reply to: rossacus

The article states that Greece only taxes about 30% of the population. They definitely need to tax everyone across the board. However, I think the main point of this showdown is the issue of PENSIONS...if the creditors can force Greece to lop off a large portion of their pension costs by forcing the people to accept pennies on the dollar...it will snowball across ALL COUNTRIES. The U.S pension showdown is coming!

It goes beyond that, it's business in usual in Greece to only report about 10% of your income for a business or individual. Not only do most not pay taxes, but the ones that do aren't paying very much. This is the main part of their issue, they simply have no revenue coming in.