I stuck this in general chit chat as it crosses a few too many forums...(fora?) to cover it.
We've seen the media targeted build-up of small ot non-existent islands in the South China Sea into viable base-potential sites with saber-rattling
that it's their turf and stay out.
I'd guess their expansion is a valid move and the U.S. is taking, as far as we know, the least amount of action in response, that being surveillance
fights to keep an eye on things. Any less and the U.S. allies in the region would probably freak out..
Yet when one factors in the over-all picture, the overlapping world economy being the biggest, the thought occurred that the U.S. may actually be
supporting the current regime in China, or at the least, taking no action that might weaken or even cause that regime to collapse. Pushing that
possibility one level further, the U.S. will do nothing, or as little as it can to appease it's allies in the region, to stop China from laying claim
to that region of the South China sea,
First, the current oil boom, world-wide, has dropped the cost of crude dramatically. This has hurt the oil producing nations as has been pointed out,
but what hasn't been stressed is how it has helped the importers of crude.
I believe the biggest winner in this scenario is China. They import huge amounts of oil and their costs have dropped dramatically. Some newsletters
had pointed out that China is the world's largest debtor nation and had overleveraged the economy by basing their loans on a national 15% annual
growth rate. Those same newsletters suggest that actually China's economy was the most likely to coolapse, even before the Euro-zone and the U.S.
Allowing China to develop that huge reserve of oil in that sea allows China to stabilize it's supply and hence the world economy also 'stabilizes' as
Any military confrontation with China, even a small, controlled one, likely pushes the world economy beyond any abilty to prevent collapse.
(the Euro-zone also has benifitted mightily from the oil price drop and there's been less hysteria lately about their imminent collapse as well.)
Add in the strengthening U.S. dollar based on it's now expanded oil and gas reserves and things are looking slightly less dire than six short months
Simply put China MUST survive else the rest of the house of cards falls immediately around the world.
So is the U.S. actually an ally of China, at least in the short term?
The only interesting dots that connect to that scenario is the fact that those oil prices, as so often in the past, haven't been driven up by an
military action in the ME, nor any consensus to cut production either. (As a side note, this is proof for me that the oil industry, who has suffered
the most from these crashed prices, has waning influence is a growing world economy with far more voices that has influence than in the day.)
I know squat, I'm neither well educated nor 'connected'. I do, on occasion, think outside the box and this train of thought intrigued me.
edit on 28-5-2015 by nwtrucker because: (no reason given)