NOAA Announces Arrival Of El Niño, 2015 Poised To Beat 2014 For Hottest Year

originally posted by: CranialSponge
a reply to: lostbook

Now were set to break the heat record for 2015.

How so ?

According to the article, there is an average projection rate for how much the Earth warms every year. Last year broke the WORLD heat average even without an El Nino. Now this year, given the projected warming trend(s) and the El Nino; although a weak El Nino, the article says that we are on par to break last year's heat record.

The warming effect(s) aren't as prevalent here in the US because we are in one of the cooler spots on the Earth.

Here's a graph on the ThinkProgress page where they depict the warming trend. Check it out:

thinkprogress.org...

originally posted by: WP4YT

originally posted by: nullafides
a reply to: lostbook

Why, that's strange...

For 2014 being the hottest year on record....I certainly did hear "Polar Vortex" an awful lot. And, hasn't the NE coast of the US been blanketed with snow....a...."snowmageddon" ????

More fodder for the Global Warming™ parrots...

Global warming is real. Anyone with half an ounce of knowledge in science and chemistry can tell you that global warming causes severe cold. That's why they call it climate change now, because "global warming" was too confusing for rednecks who couldn't be bothered to actually research the topic.

The global warming at first will create weird weather patterns. We are in store for some very hot summers and frigid winters. Hot, cold, hot, cold, and end with cold and stay cold.

It's like putting ice cubes in a glass of water. The water gets colder, and the air above it also gets colder. That's what happens when global warming melts the glaciers, and the cold water flows into the warmer oceans.

See, you need that global warming first in order to have an ice age. Look at historical data: Before any ice age, it was always extremely hot before the ice age rolled in. This was of course natural though, this was before humans were creating global warming. The difference is, the earth's natural global warming patterns were spread out over thousands of years. We can be sure humans are to blame now, as this recent global warming is spread out over only a few decades, not thousands of years like a natural warming period.

It's fine, enjoy your denial of the problem humans are making. In most of our lifetimes, it won't just be extremely hot during the summer and extremely cold during the winter every year. It will be winter year round. Enjoy that.

And I'm also a gun toting redneck myself, who is also buried under about 7ft of snow right now, but unlike many of my associates I have a simple understanding of how heat and energy work. Makes the family dinners interesting...

That's funny because here in Ohio we are breaking Cold weather records left and right this year. Records set back in the 1800s.

I think you know my next question. Why was it so frigidly cold in the 1800's? Long before we pumped too much CO2 into the atmosphere.

Why did the Ice age happen? Corporate America caused that one too Mr. Gore?

It's natural, all of it.

-1 outside right now, and its March 6th.

EDIT: I should state my entire post, is in regards to Al Gores version of Global Warming, the big bad evil that bellows out our smoke stacks. supposedly.

originally posted by: WP4YT

originally posted by: nullafides
a reply to: lostbook

Why, that's strange...

For 2014 being the hottest year on record....I certainly did hear "Polar Vortex" an awful lot. And, hasn't the NE coast of the US been blanketed with snow....a...."snowmageddon" ????

More fodder for the Global Warming™ parrots...

Global warming is real. Anyone with half an ounce of knowledge in science and chemistry can tell you that global warming causes severe cold. That's why they call it climate change now, because "global warming" was too confusing for rednecks who couldn't be bothered to actually research the topic.
The global warming at first will create weird weather patterns. We are in store for some very hot summers and frigid winters. Hot, cold, hot, cold, and end with cold and stay cold.
It's like putting ice cubes in a glass of water. The water gets colder, and the air above it also gets colder. That's what happens when global warming melts the glaciers, and the cold water flows into the warmer oceans.

See, you need that global warming first in order to have an ice age. Look at historical data: Before any ice age, it was always extremely hot before the ice age rolled in. This was of course natural though, this was before humans were creating global warming. The difference is, the earth's natural global warming patterns were spread out over thousands of years. We can be sure humans are to blame now, as this recent global warming is spread out over only a few decades, not thousands of years like a natural warming period.
It's fine, enjoy your denial of the problem humans are making. In most of our lifetimes, it won't just be extremely hot during the summer and extremely cold during the winter every year. It will be winter year round. Enjoy that.
And I'm also a gun toting redneck myself, who is also buried under about 7ft of snow right now, but unlike many of my associates I have a simple understanding of how heat and energy work. Makes the family dinners interesting...

Thanks for your input.

Herre's another article that's saying the same thing....this year could be the warmest year on record due to El Nino.

www.slate.com...

El Nino means wetter.
The one thing calif can use is more rain.
Global warming means more rain as warmer seas mean more evaporation..

One i do not believe in man made global warming.

The AGW people are playing games by using 50 and 100 year charts.
but you can see there games when you look at 500,000 year charts.
iceagenow.info...
cdn.antarcticglaciers.org...

Add in there adjusting the temps from sites around the world.
www.livescience.com...

Complete records of temperatures across the US only go back 150 years. (1849 for calif records.)

a reply to: ANNED

El Nino means wetter ????? . Here in Australia it means hotter weather and less rain . Something we can well do without .

the capitalized term "El Niño" refers to the Christ child, Jesus (literal translation "The (male) Child")

If it does anything to this summer, it'll probably increase the rainfall some, and the temps just a hair. I seem to remember some of Florida's wettest El Nino summers weren't the hottest summers. Dunno what to expect for MI summer (other than not being hotter than the Devil's Crotch) but whatever we get, it's got to be better than what I'm used to from FL.

That said. I'm loving real winter. Spring can just go back where it came from, I'll gladly take more snow. < looks around, see pitchforks rising >

a reply to: WP4YT


What has a bigger impact on weather.....Humans or solar cycles? Also when you have to cut people down to get your point across it is a sign of weakness. I would be willing to bet you have no scientific background and are parroting truths you feel are facts.......Am I right....I bet I am.




Remember when you have to cut people down to make a point you are weak.

originally posted by: hutch622
a reply to: ANNED

El Nino means wetter ????? . Here in Australia it means hotter weather and less rain . Something we can well do without .

the capitalized term "El Niño" refers to the Christ child, Jesus (literal translation "The (male) Child")

It really does depend on where you live, if anyone can settle on a trend at all. For you, hotter & drier. For, say, the US southern end, a little warmer, & wetter. For other places, a coin toss.

'Quatze' blog has a report on why 'global warming' has been still for the last 16 years, and says that it could continue till the end of the decade, lots of theories, facts, and figures. Another one to archive.

a reply to: WP4YT

This NYC redneck sees it a bit differently. Maybe you need to educate yourself.

originally posted by: Bilk22
a reply to: WP4YT

This NYC redneck sees it a bit differently. Maybe you need to educate yourself.

So a single, regional record is indicative of the entire Earth now?

a reply to: Greven

A record, it should be noted, that doesn't show the last 130 years.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Greven

A record, it should be noted, that doesn't show the last 130 years.

I think that discrepancy might actually be longer than that:

Easterbrook plots the temperature data from the GISP2 core, as archived here. Easterbrook defines “present” as the year 2000. However, the GISP2 “present” follows a common paleoclimate convention and is actually 1950. The first data point in the file is at 95 years BP. This would make 95 years BP 1855 — a full 155 years ago, long before any other global temperature record shows any modern warming. In order to make absolutely sure of my dates, I emailed Richard Alley, and he confirmed that the GISP2 “present” is 1950, and that the most recent temperature in the GISP2 series is therefore 1855.

Ergo, the chart itself is falsifying information.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Greven

A record, it should be noted, that doesn't show the last 130 years.

Well here you go then



As we can see, the Medieval Warming wasn't even the highest temps while man was walking the Earth.

a reply to: Greven

Ergo, see the chart I recently posted.

a reply to: Bilk22

That charted was created by David Lappi, who is now deceased. He was infamous for his home made charts. It also worth noting that I believe that chart was made by the same David Lappi who was trying to convince Alaskan residents to drill on their land. homernews.com...

Getting drilled

Editorial

Homer residents recently met with the man who holds leases to subsurface rights for 21,000 acres of private property. That man David Lappi, of Anchorage tried to soothe residents' fears about the process by which he hopes extract shallow gas methane from their land.

Essentially, Lappi said he wouldn't drill someone's private property without their permission. He also tried to alleviate concerns about his intentions for the land on which Paul Banks Elementary School sits, though he has subsurface lease right there, too.

"I'm not in the business to make enemies," Lappi said.

Can we trust Mr. Lappi? No one knows. He gave us his word, and he should be recognized for that, though the bigger story is that thanks to House Bill 69, which Gov. Murkowski signed into law in May, hedidn't need to. The bill lets the commissioner of natural resources waive local planning requirements. It also reduces public notice requirements to a minimum and gives state agencies the authority to draw up new rules for shallow gas development.

It also should be noted that chart is a product of Joanne Nova's website, someone who is notorious for using pseudoscience.

a reply to: Bilk22

That is a Roy Spencer product. Here is a little background on him:

thinkprogress.org...

Long wrong climate science disinformer Roy Spencer has published another deeply flawed article. That ain’t news. What is news is that the deniers have a couple of new tricks up their sleeves.

First, the disinformers have figured out they should focus on journals that don’t seem to have a very deep understanding of climate science. In May, it was a paper in a statistics journal, which was ultimately withdrawn because of “evidence of plagiarism and complaints about the peer-review process.” This time it’s an article in the open-access Remote Sensing co-authored by Spencer.

It bears repeating that Spencer committed one of the most egregious blunders in the history of remote sensing — committing multiple errors in analyzing the satellite data and creating one of the enduring denier myths, that the satellite data didn’t show the global warming that the surface temperature data did.

It also bears repeating that Spencer wrote this month, “I view my job a little like a legislator, supported by the taxpayer, to protect the interests of the taxpayer and to minimize the role of government.”

www.skepticalscience.com...

originally posted by: Bilk22
Well here you go then

As we can see, the Medieval Warming wasn't even the highest temps while man was walking the Earth.

I do so love having to track down mysterious sources of charts.

This one appears to be by Roy Spencer. It references work done by Craig Loehle who is clearly a talented researcher:

In 2007, Loehle published a paleoclimate reconstruction which reconstructed temperatures over the last 2,000 years, in Energy & Environment.
...
This paper was criticized by Gavin Schmidt, who wrote on the blog RealClimate that "the Loehle reconstruction has mistakenly shifted all three of these records forward by 50 years (due to erroneously assuming a 2000 start date for the ‘BP’ time scale)." Loehle later acknowledged this error, and published a correction the following year.

Given that Spencer marks the chart as 2007, the date-shifting error in that chart remains uncorrected.

By the way, do you know when the Medieval Warming Period was? It is thought to have occurred between ~950AD and ~1250AD. Check out the boundaries for Medieval Warming on that chart.

originally posted by: nullafides
a reply to: lostbook



Why, that's strange...



For 2014 being the hottest year on record....I certainly did hear "Polar Vortex" an awful lot. And, hasn't the NE coast of the US been blanketed with snow....a...."snowmageddon" ????



More fodder for the Global Warming™ parrots...

Here in Dallas...We just had 5 inches of snow yesterday, breaking the record. It's rare to have snow for Dallas in March!