Russia Is Overstating The Funds At Its Disposal

a reply to: Blister

So how do we make money by selling more oil for less money? Russia is already weak right now, Europe is doing fine with a mild winter, so I see no benefit to America exporting more when the value is low.

a reply to: KnightLight

The article does actually.

The graph shown from the bank of Russia.. If you click it the graph it will move between the sources used.

a reply to: Blister

All you are doing is copy and pasting an article and then asking other ATS members to analyse it for you.

Isn't that what you do with every thread...copy and paste?

Surely you can read the article and deconstruct it? Yes?

Surely you can offer something other than crying about someone copy and pasting an article.

SO what are your thoughts about the article, or do you just have a problem with the person who posted it?

a reply to: OccamsRazor04

The US actually prohibits exports.

1975 - Energy Policy and Conservation Act

a reply to: OccamsRazor04
You would have to read an oil industry executive's mind for the answer there.

But here is the logic:

(1) The US wants Russia to suffer economically (aim being regime change) and sees the negative impact the lowering price of oil is having on Russian budget (lower income from oil sales).

(2) The US is capable of increasing oil production which could further weaken oil prices.

(3) Russia wants to increase the price of oil, so may cut production (i.e. supply)

(4) US says it may increase oil production, thus weaken oil price.

(5) Result is if Russia cuts and US increases = stable price (if like for like - which it can never actually truly be for technical reasons) + a larger slice of the market for the US and smaller slice for Russia.

IMHO, I think that the unpredictability of the oil market will see a small US increase and no (or a small decrease) decrease from Russia. Other players in the market (like KSA, Venezuela ) can effect the market too.

We will see extraneous market changes that effect payment regimes and contractual matters and further sideline the USD whilst enhancing market security for Russia and its allies (e.g. Iran, Syria, China).

a reply to: tsurfer2000h
I think I have been discussing the OP more than Xcathdra.

He really needs to up his game here.

a reply to: Blister

I think I have been discussing the OP more than Xcathdra.

No you have been crying about what he posts and have yet to refute what he posted...and your opinion is fine, but facts work much better.

So do you have any facts that refute what is in the OP?

He really needs to up his game here.

Do you think your in a position to tell someone that has been following this from the beginning and posting facts that he needs to step up his game...As of yet you haven't proven anything that refutes the OP so it is you that should step up your game because as of now you are just a single A ball player trying to make it in the big leagues and can't seem to get up to speed.

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: OccamsRazor04

The US actually prohibits exports.

1975 - Energy Policy and Conservation Act

But cutting imports of oil would be equal to exporting oil. Result is there would be more oil on the global market.

Here are the numbers:
www.eia.gov...

And anyways, the US does import oil:

www.energytrendsinsider.com...
www.quoteoil.com...

Fracking has cut imports of oil, thus encouraged the future export of oil from the US.

a reply to: Xcathdra

I doubt that Russia will be in that bad of a fix honestly,since they are buying up gold to shore up the ruble.

www.bloomberg.com...

With the current low prices of gold,it makes sense to buy now and hold.Then later if needed they have it to sell off at a good time when gold is much higher. Least thats my guess. As far as how much they really have in reserve to support the economy? Who knows. Its kind of like our gold thats 'supposed' to be here. No one can really produce it,yet we are supposed to 'take their word' right. So both governments lie. Can't believe either one.

a reply to: tsurfer2000h

Do you think your in a position to tell someone that has been following this from the beginning and posting facts that he needs to step up his game...As of yet you haven't proven anything that refutes the OP so it is you that should step up your game because as of now you are just a single A ball player trying to make it in the big leagues and can't seem to get up to speed.

?? LOL.

What are you on about? Have you actually read the thread?

Here is just one contribution from myself:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

originally posted by: Blister
a reply to: OccamsRazor04
You would have to read an oil industry executive's mind for the answer there.

But here is the logic:

(1) The US wants Russia to suffer economically (aim being regime change) and sees the negative impact the lowering price of oil is having on Russian budget (lower income from oil sales).

This is already being achieved.

(2) The US is capable of increasing oil production which could further weaken oil prices.

Which you have yet to prove would have a further benefit other than hurting our allies who are working with us to lower prices.

(3) Russia wants to increase the price of oil, so may cut production (i.e. supply)

And they may capitulate and execute Putin as a traitor. What they may do is irrelevant only what is actually happening.

(4) US says it may increase oil production, thus weaken oil price.

Source that so I can read it.

(5) Result is if Russia cuts and US increases = stable price (if like for like - which it can never actually truly be for technical reasons) + a larger slice of the market for the US and smaller slice for Russia.

You need to get your story straight. Is it the US should do it or they should do it if Russia cuts. So far you are contradicting yourself.

IMHO, I think that the unpredictability of the oil market will see a small US increase and no (or a small decrease) decrease from Russia. Other players in the market (like KSA, Venezuela ) can effect the market too.

We will see extraneous market changes that effect payment regimes and contractual matters and further sideline the USD whilst enhancing market security for Russia and its allies (e.g. Iran, Syria, China).

You think Russia will come out smelling Rosy, never would have predicted that from you. Please source what I asked you to.

And another propaganda piece to influence the minds of Russian citizens, the West sure has to be desperate to trying to get uproar in Russia.

If Russian economy was really in such a bad shape it would cut the gas towards the EU immediately.

a reply to: OccamsRazor04
www.nytimes.com...
www.valuewalk.com...
www.bbc.com...
www.energyglobal.com...

Is that enough evidence to support me saying the US may increase oil production?

a reply to: Xcathdra

I have to say this currency-war is getting more interesting by the day.

Now listen up!
I predict we will see more and more keynesian economists suggesting Russia should establish a currency board system in order to counter the (magical) volatility of the ruble - and back it by the USD as the denominated foreign reserve currency... which is of course itself backed by nothing! Big surprise!

LOL its too funny.

a reply to: ColCurious
I think I read that coming out of Moscow, somewhere.

Using the USD mystifies me. Russia has only just de-linked from the USD.

originally posted by: Blister
a reply to: OccamsRazor04
www.nytimes.com...
www.valuewalk.com...
www.bbc.com...
www.energyglobal.com...

Is that enough evidence to support me saying the US may increase oil production?

No, because none of those have anything to do with the current situation. You have links talking about 2012 being a record year .. unless I am mistaken that was a little before this current situation, right?

I am waiting for a source saying the US will increase production in response to Russia, and the current situation. Otherwise you can link all day long sources about the US increasing production over the past few years, but it has nothing to do with the topic, it's simply the US doing exactly what it planned on doing either way.

originally posted by: BornAgainAlien
And another propaganda piece to influence the minds of Russian citizens, the West sure has to be desperate to trying to get uproar in Russia.

If Russian economy was really in such a bad shape it would cut the gas towards the EU immediately.

So if they were really bad off they lose more money and would destroy their economy for good? Makes sense ...

a reply to: OccamsRazor04
So, apart from the semantics over the dates, what have you got to add to the thread?

Jus do a google search if you are so keen on the answer. Oh hang-on here's a few news articles on the US production increase to hurt Russia...

oilprice.com...
www.ft.com...
This FT article is a good look at my thesis, or similar.
iranian.com...
Yup, an Iranian analysis too...

You got anything yet, anything? Hellooo? No?

a reply to: OccamsRazor04

EU economy would crumble.

The Kremlin isn`t going to wait till it lies in the ropes before playing their trump card, the minds in the Kremlin are too bright for that. According to The Economist Russia only can last for 3 months, if that was actual the case it would cut of the gas to the EU immediately.

China is also not stupid and knows it will be next in line, and will help Russia out if Russia would be in that situation.

The West got played by China at the APEC meeting by Asians countries siding with China and not going for the TPP, so now US doesn`t get to control the Pacific. The childish behavior of the Western politicians at the G20 showed exactly what had happened.

Russians have internet freedom and read things like Yahoo, CNN, etc...so what better way as to use a tool like The Economist to write such a piece and to let Yahoo take snippets out of it.

The situation The Economist is describing goes hand in hand with Russia cutting off all gas to the EU...

So it`s easy to spot it was a propaganda piece if EU still gets gas from Russia.

They even try to take a stab at Brazil in the piece to say Brazil will get hurt too by it. Yes Brazil is also in the cross-hair of the West...

BRICS’ Brazil President Next Washington Target

Source

It just doesn`t go all that well for the West, so Kiev (The West) will probably launch a new offensive also in Eastern Ukraine in the not so near future, and of course Russia will get blamed for it again.

originally posted by: Blister
a reply to: OccamsRazor04
So, apart from the semantics over the dates, what have you got to add to the thread?

Jus do a google search if you are so keen on the answer. Oh hang-on here's a few news articles on the US production increase to hurt Russia...

oilprice.com...
www.ft.com...
This FT article is a good look at my thesis, or similar.
iranian.com...
Yup, an Iranian analysis too...

Did you read your sources?
oilprice.com...
Talks about Saudi lowering oil prices, it does not talk about the US doing it. This source backs up my position, not yours.

www.ft.com...
This talks about the US selling off it's strategic reserves .. because we don't need it. Genius idea. Just to drive the point home, he says we could use the money to drive down the deficit. Except any oil sold would have to be replaced, when prices were higher, causing more deficit in the long term, while having a small effect on oil price $10-$12. This was also written back in march, when oil was $100/barrel. It's now at $79/barrel. So his entire point is moot and the article is outdated. OPEC and the Saudis already did what this guy said should be done .. only twice as much. You also fail to realize anything below $80/barrel means US oil producers may LOSE money, and driving oil prices lower would have severe effects to the US oil sector while having a much smaller effect on Russia. Assuming oil fell $10/barrel it would be at $69/barrel. The big oil companies will survive, smaller ones might not. We are at the point where we can not lower prices further, and $69/barrel would halt a LOT of production.

Nineteen shale regions in the U.S. are no longer profitable with oil at $75 a barrel, data compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance show. Those areas, including parts of the Eaglebine and Eagle Ford in Texas, pumped about 413,000 barrels a day, according to the latest data available from Drillinginfo Inc. and company presentations.

www.bloomberg.com...
Can you show me anything recent, saying that with under $80/barrel the US should lower the price further?

You got anything yet, anything? Hellooo? No?

Rude disgusting behavior. Next time you should be careful about making a comment like that, since the fact I just destroyed your entire argument with sources makes you look like a fool, and you made yourself look like a disgusting human being.