Interactive Graphs Show Future Of Ebola Outbreak

Found some very interesting graphs on the current Ebola outbreak from the Health Intelligence website. It looks like October 2014 is going to be a very important month for things will go either one of two ways.

Let me know what you think, AB

This interactive data visualization shows the actual trends of total cumulative number of cases and its prediction for the next six weeks in the current Ebola virus disease outbreak, specifically considering Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, countries with widespread and intense transmission. The predictive models in this visualization has been improved and they fit much better than other models published in the previous post. Data set was updated as of Septemeber 21st, 2014 based on WHO Disease outbreak news on Ebola virus disease and Situation report: Ebola response roadmap.
I hope this tool allows all public health professionals, decision makers and policy makers involved in the current Ebola virus disease outbreak in West Africa to plan and made informed decisions on the resources needed to control this epidemic.
In a further iteration of this tool, the prediction of deaths will be included.
As always, your commets, critics, suggestions and recommendations are welcome.

Link to Interactive Graphs from Health Intelligence

Add: They all seem to be headed into that same hyperbola looking shape. I heard somewhere when y-axis overtakes the x-axis the tide has shifted for the worse, in this case.(notice the dates when that is supposed to happen, hint: Right now!)

a reply to: AnteBellum

I love statistics. I wonder how they plotted their curve. I just toy around with the numbers until something looks intuitively correct. The problem with logarithmic or exponential curves like that is you have such a broad variance it is impossible to predict things accurately. Even with seasonal influenza, which they have lots and lots of data about, they get it wrong much of the time.

a reply to: Nechash

I hope your right this time, by the graph the next few days things will start to get exponentially worse.

Didn't have time to go deeply into their data structure, although WHO #'s are industry standard.

This interactive data visualization shows the actual trends of total cumulative number of cases…

Density of population in a city versus rural areas isn't accounted for in projections of "total cumulate cases" in a region or country.

How fast Ebola burns through a closely packed population in a large city remains to be seen. So far, that is unchartered territory.

Stay tuned.

a reply to: AnteBellum

The scale of this is absolutely horrific, I wonder at what stage it becomes impossible to contain and spreads to other parts of Africa. And then of course these countries who are already struggling will collapse into ruin. Dark days ahead me thinks.

a reply to: weirdguy

The part I could never understand about a contagious epidemic like this is, Africa is basically a large island. At some point(tipping point) the world needs to declare everything going in or out of Africa must pass the appropriate screening. That way it won't be able to spread elsewhere.

All the talk of how the world will be sent to ruins just never seemed a valid excuse. For example if England were to be effected, how hard would it be to just seal it off from everyone else, until it's resolved. Same for Australia, SA, NA, etc.

a reply to: AnteBellum

I hope your right and they do close all their borders, especially if it does reach the 100,000 mark by janurary.

Looking at the information provided and the rate this could easily spread .... I'd like to suggest to folks that instead of nonsensical Christmas gifts this year, folks give prep items. What would be better ... give you mom a hundred dollar gift card to Target for trinkets or give her two big long term storage pails of rice and peas? I'm thinking the rice and peas will be needed more than the trinkets. If this gets really bad, ya'll will be glad to have something to eat while under quarantine in the home.

Just a thought for those interested.

a reply to: FlyersFan

That's an awesome idea!
I have to be selective though, 1/4 of my family already thinks I'm crazy for talking about fringe issues. I afraid this may give them the ammunition they always wanted for a conspiracy intervention. lol

One year my ex asked me what I wanted for x-mas and I told him; Potassium Iodide Pills for 5 people, a blast resistant safe and an M1911acp.45

Best Christmas in years!

a reply to: AnteBellum

I think you just gave everyone on here the best idea ever - for Christmas wish lists, ha, ha. Love it!

I wonder if this map is a prediction or a plan.

originally posted by: AnteBellum
a reply to: weirdguy

The part I could never understand about a contagious epidemic like this is, Africa is basically a large island. At some point(tipping point) the world needs to declare everything going in or out of Africa must pass the appropriate screening. That way it won't be able to spread elsewhere.

All the talk of how the world will be sent to ruins just never seemed a valid excuse. For example if England were to be effected, how hard would it be to just seal it off from everyone else, until it's resolved. Same for Australia, SA, NA, etc.

How do you gst migratory animals to obey a
quarantine?

"The map below tells the tale. Looking only at the Ebola-carrier fruit bat's range outlined in magenta, you can see this particular fruit bat populates almost all of the African continent, parts of Europe, Eurasia, Asia, Australia and the island nations. It's range spans Africa, up into Turkey, the coastline of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, the Southern quarter of China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, through Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Phillipines, New Guinea, around the coast of Australia, and up to the Southern coast of Japan.

Ebola-carrier fruit bat's range outlined in magenta
Source

Some pundits and military strategists still think quarantine is the answer, predicting the epidemic will "burn itself out" - but they know nothing about epidemiology, and mistakenly assume exclusive human-to-human transmission.

johnb, posted on Sep, 23 2014 @ 01:48 PM

….presumably rats and possibly wild dogs and any and all other carrion eaters, birds and insects will be feasting on some of these dead bodies if they are lying in the streets and villages and especially out in the bush.

If pigs, bats (and monkeys?) can catch/carry Ebola then presumably the chances of other animals and insects catching/carrying is massively increasing too - i wonder if anybody is keeping an eye out on the local wildlife and its effects on them….

"

Why Quarantine Won't Stop the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

And there goes another great point I for sure overlooked, probably like many others.

This post of yours is really worthy of more awareness then the one already posted as a thread. Exposure to infected animals are what started this whole mess to begin with IMO.

a reply to: AnteBellum

Thank you, most of that post was actually penned by soficrow.

Though I did find independent corroborating evidence as noted here:

Identifying the regions where wild animal populations could transmit the Ebola virus should help with efforts to prepare at-risk areas for future outbreaks.

Image Large regions of West and Central Africa (red) have the right environmental conditions for Ebola infection in wild animals

As you can see, this overlaps past and current outbreaks to a great extent and gices credence to the notion that this could become a recurring problem.

The new map reveals that large swathes of Central and West Africa appear to have the right environmental conditions for Ebola infection to occur in non-human species.

Furthermore, when the analysis was repeated without using data about the on-going outbreak, an area deemed to be at risk was still within 5 kilometres of the village thought to the origin of the current outbreak.

This ‘at-risk area’ spans 22 countries and is inhabited by 22 million people. It should be stressed that this is not necessarily the size of the population at risk of getting infected with Ebola virus; rather, it represents the population that lives within the area estimated to be suitable for transmission in animals. Once an outbreak has started, transmission from human-to-human could easily spread the virus away from the source.

Epidemiology: Mapping Ebola in wild animals for better disease control