Ebola - my visual charts & projections based on WHO data

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posted on Jan, 5 2015 @ 02:39 PM
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According to WHO, the latest reported numbers for Ebola cases and deaths were:



I've updated the Ebola charts with the latest WHO data. Explanations of the charts are below.









Charts 1, 2, and 6 show the cumulative numbers of reported cases and deaths so far. In Chart 1, the y (left) axis is linear. In Chart 2, the y axis is a logarithmic scale where major divisions of the axis increase by powers of 10 (the base is 10). Chart 6 has the y axis in powers of 2 (the base is 2, so 1, 2, 4, 8, etc.), so each major division represents a doubling of the numbers.

Exponential growth will look like a rapidly escalating curve on a linear scale but like a straight line on a logarithmic scale (base 10 or base 2 in these charts). Linear growth will look like a straight line on a linear scale and like a curve approaching a flat horizontal line on an exponential scale.

Charts 3, 4, and 5 are historical projections that would have been most likely if nothing changed to slow or stop the spread. For quite a while, reported cases and deaths followed these projections closely. But reported numbers finally started dropping below these historical projections several months ago. That may be temporary, or it may be due to problems in collecting or reporting data, or it may (hopefully!) be a real improvement that will continue.

Charts 4B-4E and 5B-5E include more recently updated projections. For charts with color coded ranges, the green ranges are the projection if the spread continues as it has over recent weeks. The darker green in the lower part of some ranges would be expected if the spread continues to trend away from exponential growth toward linear growth (toward the bottom of the shaded areas).

The yellow range would be expected if the trend goes back to spreading at previous faster rates. And the red range would be expected if it starts growing again at the worst rates experienced so far during this epidemic.

Interestingly, reported cases have been gradually dropping below these more recent projection ranges as well, but reported deaths have continued to fall within the projection ranges. I will be updating these range projections when I get some spare time this month.

Charts 7-8 were discontinued quite a while back.

Charts 9-12 were merged previously, and the combined chart shows monthly new cases and deaths reported.

Interestingly, new cases reported continued to decline in December but new deaths reported showed the largest increase yet in December. It's hard to tell whether that is significant or whether it is due to a number of large downward and upward adjustments in reported deaths over the last two months.

Charts 13-14B show cumulative cases and deaths by country.

Chart 15 shows how many days it has taken for the cumulative number of cases to double over time. Higher points in the chart are good, they mean it is taking longer to double. Lower points are bad, they mean it is doubling faster. Previously cases doubled every 3 to 4 weeks. But for the last several months, the doubling rate has been slowing down. Currently, cases are doubling in about 10 to 10.5 weeks according to reported numbers and the doubling rate has been steadily slowing down.

The charts do not include the Congo, as that was allegedly an unrelated outbreak and it has been declared over.

These charts rely on 'official' reported numbers and can only be as accurate as that data. Reported Ebola data is subject to change as cases and deaths are reclassified, or as data sources or reporting methods change. I do not know how accurate 'official' reported numbers are, but there are a number of possible issues:

1. WHO,the CDC, Doctors Without Borders (MSF), etc. have in the past stated that actual cases and deaths "vastly" outnumber reported figures, possibly by at least 2 to 5 times.

2. There have been sudden large decreases or increases over the last several months in officially reported cases and deaths. It is unclear whether decreases represent improvements. The decreases and increases may all be due to an inability to keep up with data tracking and recording.

3. Many countries have clamped down on Ebola news. At least one journalist has been arrested and at least one newspaper has been closed in west Africa. In the USA, an 'Ebola Czar' with a reputation as a political/public relations 'fixer' (and with no medical experience) was appointed to lead the US Ebola effort.

4. There are theories regarding Ebola that differ from the 'official' reports. Some believe there is no such thing as Ebola or that what is spreading is not Ebola. Some believe there is no outbreak at all. Some believe people are purposely being infected for economic or depopulation plans. I do not know if there is any truth to any of these beliefs, it can be a strange world.

The same disclaimers and references apply to all of these charts:

Charts and future projections were done by me, not by WHO, except in cases where it is stated that a chart includes WHO projections. I am not an Ebola expert, epidemiologist, virologist, or MD, but I manually compiled the data used to create these graphs from news updates on the following websites:


SOURCE: WHO website 1

SOURCE: WHO website 2

SOURCE: WHO website 3

SOURCE: WHO website 4

SOURCE: WHO website 5

SOURCE: CDC website 1

SOURCE: The New England Journal of Medicine

SOURCE: Guinea Situation Reports (posted on Humanitarian Response)
[NOTE: Situation Reports from Guinea are in French.]

SOURCE: Liberia Situation Reports

Mali Ministry of Sanitation and Hygiene
[NOTE: Situation Reports from Mali are in French.]

SOURCE: Sierra Leone Situation Reports

Please do not do anything you might regret based on charts or projections. Hopefully efforts to contain, quarantine, treat, prevent, or cure Ebola will eventually be successful, and hopefully sooner rather than later.




posted on Jan, 5 2015 @ 03:35 PM
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a reply to: ikonoklast



Thankfully this disease is dying out or so it seems. It was touch and go for awhile and even governments bought into the hype. They estimated millions by this point infected. Go's to show no one can predict the future.
edit on 5-1-2015 by SubTruth because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 5 2015 @ 03:39 PM
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Given my thread on big scary numbers....

And hold on, I'm not slamming anyone here



Although I do see these numbers as being small....the idea of the probably vectors from intercontinental airtraffic is what truly scares me enough to the point where my bowels want to take things into their own hands...


Thanks for the post!


-NF



posted on Jan, 16 2015 @ 12:09 PM
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According to WHO, the latest reported numbers for Ebola cases and deaths were:



I've updated most of the Ebola charts with the latest WHO data. Some of the projection charts are still in progress. I am working on updating some of the projection ranges based on newer data and that is considerable more time consuming.

Explanations of the charts are below.







Charts 1, 2, and 6 show the cumulative numbers of reported cases and deaths so far. In Chart 1, the y (left) axis is linear. In Chart 2, the y axis is a logarithmic scale where major divisions of the axis increase by powers of 10 (the base is 10). Chart 6 has the y axis in powers of 2 (the base is 2, so 1, 2, 4, 8, etc.), so each major division represents a doubling of the numbers.

Exponential growth will look like a rapidly escalating curve on a linear scale but like a straight line on a logarithmic scale (base 10 or base 2 in these charts). Linear growth will look like a straight line on a linear scale and like a curve approaching a flat horizontal line on an exponential scale.

Charts 3, 4, and 5 are historical projections that would have been most likely if nothing changed to slow or stop the spread. For quite a while, reported cases and deaths followed these projections closely. But reported numbers finally started dropping below these historical projections in October 2014. That may be temporary, or it may be due to problems in collecting or reporting data, or it may (hopefully!) be a real improvement that will continue.

Charts 4B-4E and 5B-5E are not included in this update because I am still working on updating some of the projection ranges based on newer data and will be updating these some time this month.

Charts 7-8 were discontinued quite a while back.

Charts 9-12 were merged previously, and the combined chart shows monthly new cases and deaths reported.

As others have noted, one would expect to see a bell curve shape to the epidemic over time. Looking at Charts 9-12 (which are merged into one chart), that appears to be what we are seeing. Barring a resurgence, the spread of Ebola cases peaked in October 2014 and has been declining since then - IF reported numbers are reasonably accurate or have at least been consistently proportional to reality. WHO and various health authorities have previously estimated actual cases and deaths to be 2-5 times higher than reported numbers.

Charts 13-14B show cumulative cases and deaths by country.

Chart 15 shows how many days it has taken for the cumulative number of cases to double over time. Higher points in the chart are good, they mean it is taking longer to double. Lower points are bad, they mean it is doubling faster. Previously cases doubled every 3 to 4 weeks. But for the last several months, the doubling rate has been slowing down. Currently, cases are doubling in about 12 weeks according to reported numbers, and the doubling rate has been steadily slowing down.

The charts do not include the Congo, as that was allegedly an unrelated outbreak and it has been declared over.

These charts rely on 'official' reported numbers and can only be as accurate as that data. Reported Ebola data is subject to change as cases and deaths are reclassified, or as data sources or reporting methods change. I do not know how accurate 'official' reported numbers are, but there are a number of possible issues:

1. WHO,the CDC, Doctors Without Borders (MSF), etc. have in the past stated that actual cases and deaths "vastly" outnumber reported figures, possibly by at least 2 to 5 times.

2. There have been sudden large decreases or increases over the last several months in officially reported cases and deaths. It is unclear whether decreases represent improvements. The decreases and increases may all be due to an inability to keep up with data tracking and recording.

3. Many countries have clamped down on Ebola news. At least one journalist has been arrested and at least one newspaper has been closed in west Africa. In the USA, an 'Ebola Czar' with a reputation as a political/public relations 'fixer' (and with no medical experience) was appointed to lead the US Ebola effort.

4. There are theories regarding Ebola that differ from the 'official' reports. Some believe there is no such thing as Ebola or that what is spreading is not Ebola. Some believe there is no outbreak at all. Some believe people are purposely being infected for economic or depopulation plans. I do not know if there is any truth to any of these beliefs, it can be a strange world.

The same disclaimers and references apply to all of these charts:

Charts and future projections were done by me, not by WHO, except in cases where it is stated that a chart includes WHO projections. I am not an Ebola expert, epidemiologist, virologist, or MD, but I manually compiled the data used to create these graphs from news updates on the following websites:


SOURCE: WHO website 1

SOURCE: WHO website 2

SOURCE: WHO website 3

SOURCE: WHO website 4

SOURCE: WHO website 5

SOURCE: CDC website 1

SOURCE: The New England Journal of Medicine

SOURCE: Guinea Situation Reports (posted on Humanitarian Response)
[NOTE: Situation Reports from Guinea are in French.]

SOURCE: Liberia Situation Reports

Mali Ministry of Sanitation and Hygiene
[NOTE: Situation Reports from Mali are in French.]

SOURCE: Sierra Leone Situation Reports

Please do not do anything you might regret based on charts or projections. Hopefully efforts to contain, quarantine, treat, prevent, or cure Ebola will eventually be successful, and hopefully sooner rather than later.



posted on Jan, 16 2015 @ 01:16 PM
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I'm still working on the updated Ebola death range projections, but here are the old and new Ebola case range projections compared side by side. On the left are the last previous projections. On the right are the newest projections. I kept the scales the same for this update so that you can easily see that the new projection ranges are considerably lower than previously.

Explanations of the charts are below, and you can click on the graphic to open up a full-sized version.



The green ranges are the projection if the spread continues as it has over recent weeks. The darker green would be expected if the spread continues to slow down as it has been.

The yellow range would be expected if the trend goes back to spreading at previous rates. And the red range would be expected if it starts taking even more of a turn for the worse.

The charts do not include the Congo, as that was allegedly an unrelated outbreak and it has been declared over.

These charts rely on 'official' reported numbers and can only be as accurate as that data. Reported Ebola data is subject to change as cases and deaths are reclassified, or as data sources or reporting methods change. I do not know how accurate 'official' reported numbers are, but there are a number of possible issues:

1. WHO,the CDC, Doctors Without Borders (MSF), etc. have in the past stated that actual cases and deaths "vastly" outnumber reported figures, possibly by at least 2 to 5 times.

2. There have been sudden large decreases or increases over the last several months in officially reported cases and deaths. It is unclear whether decreases represent improvements. The decreases and increases may all be due to an inability to keep up with data tracking and recording.

3. Many countries have clamped down on Ebola news. At least one journalist has been arrested and at least one newspaper has been closed in west Africa. In the USA, an 'Ebola Czar' with a reputation as a political/public relations 'fixer' (and with no medical experience) was appointed to lead the US Ebola effort.

4. There are theories regarding Ebola that differ from the 'official' reports. Some believe there is no such thing as Ebola or that what is spreading is not Ebola. Some believe there is no outbreak at all. Some believe people are purposely being infected for economic or depopulation plans. I do not know if there is any truth to any of these beliefs, it can be a strange world.

The same disclaimers and references apply to all of these charts:

Charts and future projections were done by me, not by WHO, except in cases where it is stated that a chart includes WHO projections. I am not an Ebola expert, epidemiologist, virologist, or MD, but I manually compiled the data used to create these graphs from news updates on the following websites:


SOURCE: WHO website 1

SOURCE: WHO website 2

SOURCE: WHO website 3

SOURCE: WHO website 4

SOURCE: WHO website 5

SOURCE: CDC website 1

SOURCE: The New England Journal of Medicine

SOURCE: Guinea Situation Reports (posted on Humanitarian Response)
[NOTE: Situation Reports from Guinea are in French.]

SOURCE: Liberia Situation Reports

Mali Ministry of Sanitation and Hygiene
[NOTE: Situation Reports from Mali are in French.]

SOURCE: Sierra Leone Situation Reports

Please do not do anything you might regret based on charts or projections. Hopefully efforts to contain, quarantine, treat, prevent, or cure Ebola will eventually be successful, and hopefully sooner rather than later.



posted on Jan, 17 2015 @ 03:57 AM
link   
Here are the old and new Ebola death range projections compared side by side. As with the new case projections, on the left are the last previous projections. On the right are the newest projections. And I kept the scales the same for this update so that you can easily see that most of the new projection ranges are considerably lower than previously.

Explanations of the charts are below, and you can click on the graphic to open up a full-sized version.



The green ranges are the projection if the spread continues as it has over recent weeks. The darker green would be expected if the spread continues to slow down as it has been.

The yellow range would be expected if the trend goes back to spreading at previous rates. And the red range would be expected if it starts taking even more of a turn back towards the worst.

The charts do not include the Congo, as that was allegedly an unrelated outbreak and it has been declared over.

These charts rely on 'official' reported numbers and can only be as accurate as that data. Reported Ebola data is subject to change as cases and deaths are reclassified, or as data sources or reporting methods change. I do not know how accurate 'official' reported numbers are, but there are a number of possible issues:

1. WHO,the CDC, Doctors Without Borders (MSF), etc. have in the past stated that actual cases and deaths "vastly" outnumber reported figures, possibly by at least 2 to 5 times.

2. There have been sudden large decreases or increases over the last several months in officially reported cases and deaths. It is unclear whether decreases represent improvements. The decreases and increases may all be due to an inability to keep up with data tracking and recording.

3. Many countries have clamped down on Ebola news. At least one journalist has been arrested and at least one newspaper has been closed in west Africa. In the USA, an 'Ebola Czar' with a reputation as a political/public relations 'fixer' (and with no medical experience) was appointed to lead the US Ebola effort.

4. There are theories regarding Ebola that differ from the 'official' reports. Some believe there is no such thing as Ebola or that what is spreading is not Ebola. Some believe there is no outbreak at all. Some believe people are purposely being infected for economic or depopulation plans. I do not know if there is any truth to any of these beliefs, it can be a strange world.

The same disclaimers and references apply to all of these charts:

Charts and future projections were done by me, not by WHO, except in cases where it is stated that a chart includes WHO projections. I am not an Ebola expert, epidemiologist, virologist, or MD, but I manually compiled the data used to create these graphs from news updates on the following websites:


SOURCE: WHO website 1

SOURCE: WHO website 2

SOURCE: WHO website 3

SOURCE: WHO website 4

SOURCE: WHO website 5

SOURCE: CDC website 1

SOURCE: The New England Journal of Medicine

SOURCE: Guinea Situation Reports (posted on Humanitarian Response)
[NOTE: Situation Reports from Guinea are in French.]

SOURCE: Liberia Situation Reports

Mali Ministry of Sanitation and Hygiene
[NOTE: Situation Reports from Mali are in French.]

SOURCE: Sierra Leone Situation Reports

Please do not do anything you might regret based on charts or projections. Hopefully efforts to contain, quarantine, treat, prevent, or cure Ebola will eventually be successful, and hopefully sooner rather than later.





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