Very unusual object photographed in Arizona sky

originally posted by: wmd_2008
a reply to: htapath

Sorry right angles the RESOLUTION of the object is not goid enogh to claim that as for the assumption they look ridgid, again a still image with a fixed moment in time. Shaped like the clouds seems more like head in the clouds.

Alright then. Let's break it down into milliseconds.

How long does it take for a bird to flap its wings? Roughly one second? For how many milliseconds would you expect a birds wings to be pointing straight down?

Then multiply that number times the probability of a bird flapping its wings after reaching its desired altitude.

Now calculate the probability of someone randomly capturing said bird on an image in that position without even seeing the bird in the first place.

At high noon in the desert, with oddly shaped surrounding clouds, which just happen to be shaped like this bird, which was invisible to the naked eye.

If one could place a wager in Las Vegas on the likelihood of such an image being captured, what would the odds be?

a reply to: htapath

And let me reiterate one key point: You yourself were not a witness to that which you so vehemently maintain wasn't a bird.

So we are all equally qualified to interpret your photo.

I hike all the time here in Arizona. I see lots of large birds, including red tail hawks, turkey vultures, you name it. It's not that hard to catch a bird with its wings down while flying...

originally posted by: draknoir2
a reply to: htapath

And let me reiterate one key point: You yourself were not a witness to that which you so vehemently maintain wasn't a bird.

So we are all equally qualified to interpret your photo.

With this statement I would somewhat agree. Something compelled me to pull over and capture the image. Would you have pulled over and done the same? Would any other ATS member have done the same? Who am I to say.

The circumstances might be different for each of us. So our interpretations of the image might also vary.

a reply to: htapath

Now calculate the probability of someone randomly capturing said bird on an image in that position without even seeing the bird in the first place.

If the random person is pointing the camera in the right position at the right time without seeing the bird and capturing a bird on photo I would say its a 1:1 ratio of probability if there was a bird and wasn't noticed by said person taking the pic.

I looks like a bird as has been repeatedly pointed out,

You can believe it was invisible to the human eye or what you wish,

You can believe that clouds look weird, that is normal around these boards especially in the geoengineering forum where a few fear clouds.

If one could place a wager in Las Vegas on the likelihood of such an image being captured, what would the odds be?

Like I said, 1:1.

many images show how its possible, many images have show quite similar shape, those images have been of birds, larger birds of prey.

a reply to: InhaleExhale

My philosophy is not to believe anything, mate.

Beliefs are very limiting, and all of those were shed many moons ago.

originally posted by: gavron
I hike all the time here in Arizona. I see lots of large birds, including red tail hawks, turkey vultures, you name it. It's not that hard to catch a bird with its wings down while flying...

Yes it's those invisible ones that are so elusive.



Nice pic, and thanks for your input.

originally posted by: htapath

originally posted by: wmd_2008
a reply to: htapath

Sorry right angles the RESOLUTION of the object is not goid enogh to claim that as for the assumption they look ridgid, again a still image with a fixed moment in time. Shaped like the clouds seems more like head in the clouds.

Alright then. Let's break it down into milliseconds.

How long does it take for a bird to flap its wings? Roughly one second? For how many milliseconds would you expect a birds wings to be pointing straight down?

Then multiply that number times the probability of a bird flapping its wings after reaching its desired altitude.

Now calculate the probability of someone randomly capturing said bird on an image in that position without even seeing the bird in the first place.

At high noon in the desert, with oddly shaped surrounding clouds, which just happen to be shaped like this bird, which was invisible to the naked eye.

If one could place a wager in Las Vegas on the likelihood of such an image being captured, what would the odds be?

OK...calculate the odds of someone photographing the Sun, then of catching Venus transiting the sun, then a plane flying across the sun at the same time. I didn't see the plane when I photographed this....so does it make it a UFO as well?

a reply to: htapath

Now calculate the probability of someone randomly capturing said bird on an image in that position without even seeing the bird in the first place.

The odds of that happening are 100% since you did exactly that.

If one could place a wager in Las Vegas on the likelihood of such an image being captured, what would the odds be?

My advice, dont go to Vegas.

rationalwiki.org...

Shuffling a deck of cards

Do you want to witness an "improbable" event right now in your very own home?

Take a standard deck of 52 cards, shuffle it well and spread the cards in a line. Look at them well. Assuming an ideally random shuffle, the probability of a card sequence in this exact order is...

1 in 80658175170943878571660636856403766975289505440883277824000000000000

Really. And yet despite this very low probability, you just got that sequence. Which may be mindblowing if you haven't studied statistics or combinatorics. Of course, this is because the probability that is given to you is ex ante and when you are reading the sequence of the cards after you shuffle them, you are simply validating what you see. The ex post probability of getting that particular sequence is always 100%

a reply to: htapath

My philosophy is not to believe anything, mate.

Cheers for that, it brought a smile to my face.


What about everything instead of anything, I hope its not nothing though?

Beliefs are very limiting

Well sorry you have such limited mind,

Beliefs are limited depending on what one believes, you place limits on you beliefs or have such a limited philosophy there is only one that can change that.

and all of those were shed many moons ago.

Ahh, sort of like you cant teach an old dog new tricks.

Oh well,

Beliefs are all we as conscious beings possess as being true to ourselves and our nature at any given moment.

Those beliefs can change depending on experience and circumstance,

Your Philosophy of not believing anything is like a polar opposite of mine, I believe everything and in everything is possible.

Its just my experience and perception that leads me to believe you have captured a bird.

It could be Mork form Ork or some secret aircraft being tested as I believe you suggested ( its been a while since I read the thread so I might be incorrect with what you suggested), however whats brought to the thread for discussion looks quite similar, almost identical to a bird flapping its wing.


However, these days you cant be really sure,

I mean with claims of ET ships disguising themselves as planes and clouds and what not is quite rampant and I always simply believe the person making the claim believes in what they say however that doesn't mean I agree with their claim or the reasons they have concluded to be what they claim.

I believe everything and in everything but its usually ones making the claim and how and what they present and express themselves that makes me believe what they saw is not what they say it is, either by mistake or a purposeful deceit again depending on how they express themselves.

My old grandma, bless her, had a saying;

If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, swims on the water like a duck, eats what ducks eat, lives in a group with ducks, is called Ducky McDuck and comes from Duck Town, in Duck County, in the great state of Ducksville that forms part of the United States of Duck, then its usually a duck.

Or in this case, probably a small bird of prey.

originally posted by: gavron

originally posted by: htapath

originally posted by: wmd_2008
a reply to: htapath

Sorry right angles the RESOLUTION of the object is not goid enogh to claim that as for the assumption they look ridgid, again a still image with a fixed moment in time. Shaped like the clouds seems more like head in the clouds.

Alright then. Let's break it down into milliseconds.

How long does it take for a bird to flap its wings? Roughly one second? For how many milliseconds would you expect a birds wings to be pointing straight down?

Then multiply that number times the probability of a bird flapping its wings after reaching its desired altitude.

Now calculate the probability of someone randomly capturing said bird on an image in that position without even seeing the bird in the first place.

At high noon in the desert, with oddly shaped surrounding clouds, which just happen to be shaped like this bird, which was invisible to the naked eye.

If one could place a wager in Las Vegas on the likelihood of such an image being captured, what would the odds be?

OK...calculate the odds of someone photographing the Sun, then of catching Venus transiting the sun, then a plane flying across the sun at the same time. I didn't see the plane when I photographed this....so does it make it a UFO as well?

If the wings on the object were both pointing straight down, then I'd say you have a UFO. Wouldn't that be something?

a reply to: InhaleExhale

I haven't stated that the object is anything absolutely. When I get to the other side, I reckon I'll know then.

Look me up and we'll discuss the particulars. If it was a rigid out of place looking bird of prey or not, I'm quite sure we'll have a good laugh.

originally posted by: neformore
My old grandma, bless her, had a saying;

If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, swims on the water like a duck, eats what ducks eat, lives in a group with ducks, is called Ducky McDuck and comes from Duck Town, in Duck County, in the great state of Ducksville that forms part of the United States of Duck, then its usually a duck.

Or in this case, probably a small bird of prey.

I never met your grandma, but it sounds to me like she would require more proof that the object is a bird than yourself and the average ATS'er.

Bless her heart.

originally posted by: htapath

originally posted by: wmd_2008
a reply to: htapath

Sorry right angles the RESOLUTION of the object is not goid enogh to claim that as for the assumption they look ridgid, again a still image with a fixed moment in time. Shaped like the clouds seems more like head in the clouds.

Alright then. Let's break it down into milliseconds.

How long does it take for a bird to flap its wings? Roughly one second? For how many milliseconds would you expect a birds wings to be pointing straight down?

Then multiply that number times the probability of a bird flapping its wings after reaching its desired altitude.

Now calculate the probability of someone randomly capturing said bird on an image in that position without even seeing the bird in the first place.

At high noon in the desert, with oddly shaped surrounding clouds, which just happen to be shaped like this bird, which was invisible to the naked eye.

If one could place a wager in Las Vegas on the likelihood of such an image being captured, what would the odds be?

Probability is always a strange subject when you work back from the end position the probability of the birds wings being straight down are the same as them being at 23.985 degrees when you took the shot, lets take it back further whats the probability of our parents conceiving us that we would both be able to argue about your BIRD picture over the net eh just as well those pesky dinosaurs got wiped out as well then isn't it!

a reply to: wmd_2008

I enjoy fancying such questions. The odds are infinitely against any of this interaction having happened, yet here we are.

What are the odds that the sun will rise for me tomorrow? 50/50 would be my answer.

I'm ready either way. This is how I live every day.

originally posted by: gavron

OK...calculate the odds of someone photographing the Sun, then of catching Venus transiting the sun, then a plane flying across the sun at the same time.

100% according to ZetaRediculian's calculations.

originally posted by: gavron

OK...calculate the odds of someone photographing the Sun, then of catching Venus transiting the sun, then a plane flying across the sun at the same time.

originally posted by: CosmicRay

100% according to ZetaRediculian's calculations.

Hey now! It all depends on how you ask the question. If you are asking what are the odds of something happening (at least once?) and then show photographic evidence of said occurrence, then it certainly has happened at least once. What are the odds of it happening again? I have no clue.

Its like asking what are the odds of a coin flip coming out heads 10 times in a row as opposed to flipping 10 heads in a row and asking "what are the odds of that happening"? One is asking to predict an outcome while the other is asking to verify the outcome.

a reply to: ZetaRediculian

Odds are always 50/50 until it happens, then it's 100%, per the Drak Equation.

a reply to: htapath

Wow, great pic. Maybe the Black Knight Satellite sent down a drone!