World War III. What would it look like?

I was wondering which global conflicts would play out under a new world war. Thought I could turn to ATS for some clarity.

Here are the most obvious conflicts I see turning hostile

Russia Vs Ukraine
China vs Taiwan
Israel vs Iran
Pakistan vs India

I admit that I am not very educated on global conflicts. Moreover, I don't even know what to easily search for on google.

I figure that considering all the intensity over the current events, WWIII has been flirted with in discussions. Which got me to thinking, what would the global war look like and what would they be hoping yo gain after the dust settles.

What better place to construct the model of thought than to ask ATS?

AAC

reply to post by AnAbsoluteCreation


Someone gave a star for.........Nothing.......ATS.

SubTruth
reply to post by AnAbsoluteCreation

 

Someone gave a star for.........Nothing.......ATS.

Well, it wasn't me, but I did take a moment to consider if the empty ops was actually some sort of statement of the subject at hand...very zen.

SubTruth
reply to post by AnAbsoluteCreation

 

Someone gave a star for.........Nothing.......ATS.

I thought that was funny. I pressed post on accident after writing title.

AAC

SaturnFX

SubTruth
reply to post by AnAbsoluteCreation

 

Someone gave a star for.........Nothing.......ATS.

Well, it wasn't me, but I did take a moment to consider if the empty ops was actually some sort of statement of the subject at hand...very zen.

I'm not the clever... Usually.

AAC

Depends on who gets involved and what kind of weapons are used. Even without nukes it could be pretty devastating, just look at the middle east right now. If nukes were involved, it would likely result in complete devastation for either one or both sides of the conflict (probably not the entire country leveled - but with fallout who knows how much of the country would be affected). Worst case: A conflict between US and its allies (the UN, Israel, South Korea, Australia, etc) vs Russia, China, North Korea, the Muslim world, and their allies that goes nuclear. In this case there will be millions of casualties and at least one side will be completely devastated. The only way that both sides aren't completely devastated is if one side has the intel to pre-emptively take out the other's nukes before attacking. We hope that the theory of Mutual Assured Destruction (that no side will attack because it would be suicide) will prevent a nuclear war. The US has about 20 nuclear-armed submarines in unknown locations all over the world and the US can nuke any location within minutes if necessary, so completely disarming the US nuclear arsenal seems pretty much impossible. Similar story with Russia, who actually has about 2500 nukes to the US' 1500 (Obama has been and wants to continue cutting funding for our nuclear program).

Actually, I foresee a potential for a sort of controlled cold war between Russia and the EU. mostly economic and back stabby type things between the two, perhaps some proxy skirmishes. I think the days of superpowers warring are over. most superpowers have learned a lesson or two at this point about wars in general...far more effective to do intelligence wars than guns and ammo type wars.

Perhaps some flare ups in the middle east (as usual)...but frankly, War is, in this day and age with international law and such, ultimately a fools errand. you can't really conquer new lands anymore. its a huge investment into nothing...and war has typically been about a country trying to achieve some net gain...this is done via computers and purchasing the loyalty of puppet government officials now moreso than tanks. (for the big boys that is)

SaturnFX
Actually, I foresee a potential for a sort of controlled cold war between Russia and the EU. mostly economic and back stabby type things between the two, perhaps some proxy skirmishes. I think the days of superpowers warring are over. most superpowers have learned a lesson or two at this point about wars in general...far more effective to do intelligence wars than guns and ammo type wars.

Perhaps some flare ups in the middle east (as usual)...but frankly, War is, in this day and age with international law and such, ultimately a fools errand. you can't really conquer new lands anymore. its a huge investment into nothing...and war has typically been about a country trying to achieve some net gain...this is done via computers and purchasing the loyalty of puppet government officials now moreso than tanks. (for the big boys that is)

I can almost agree with everything you stated. But what would Russia be forced to do if crippled by sanctions? The business side would eventually be disregarded when the threat of losing the business completely manifests. Kind of like when japan was forced to strike when sanctions cut off their oil supply in WWII.

AAC

reply to post by SaturnFX


That's very realistic. I was assuming that the OP was referring to a military confrontation. It would take a lot for a conflict to be termed a "world war" without it.

Ok for fun ill make up an analysis...mind you this is just off the top of my head...and is completely for entertainment only.

1) US/Europe put sanctions on Russia.

2) Russia/China pull money out of US and counter with their own sanctions.

3) Russia invades Ukraine at the same time Azerbaijan and Armenia vote to be assimilated back into Russia.

4) Turkey is finally let into the European Union---for strategic purposes only.

5) China invades Taiwan...depending on the difficulties of it they are eyeing Japan next and several other islands in the area.

6) "Ally" forces begin to amass in Europe and Oceania....

7) Someone of importance is assassinated.

8) Ally forces invade (USA and allies) Russia through the Ukraine...the war is fought conventionally.

9) The Kashmir region is disputed between India and Pakistan.

10) Russia invades Alaska to get as what they would call "counter play".

11) Mexico invades Texas....Ya I said it...Mexico invades Texas.

12) Israel attacks Iran, Syria, and threaten Egypt....

13) Pakistan and India nuke each other....no one knows who fired first...

14) All countries offer a cease fire.....

15) Aliens come down and intervene.

16) The new superpowers are New Zealand and Brasil.....

In the end....Russia and the USA will both be broken up into many smaller countries after years of civil war. Pig Latin will become an official language in one of the US countries. Countries will later have salary caps and no one will know what twerking is.


Oh and finally...people can trade with Cuba...who had no idea there was even a war taking place the whole time...

A Canticle for Leibowitz is a pretty good summation of what it would look like.

Set in a Catholic monastery in the desert of the Southwestern United States after a devastating nuclear war, the story spans thousands of years as civilization rebuilds itself. The monks of the fictional Albertian Order of Leibowitz take up the mission of preserving the surviving remnants of man's scientific knowledge until the day the outside world is again ready for it.

Inspired by the author's participation in the Allied bombing of the monastery at Monte Cassino during World War II, the novel is considered a masterpiece by literary critics

Bellor
A Canticle for Leibowitz is a pretty good summation of what it would look like.

Set in a Catholic monastery in the desert of the Southwestern United States after a devastating nuclear war, the story spans thousands of years as civilization rebuilds itself. The monks of the fictional Albertian Order of Leibowitz take up the mission of preserving the surviving remnants of man's scientific knowledge until the day the outside world is again ready for it.

Inspired by the author's participation in the Allied bombing of the monastery at Monte Cassino during World War II, the novel is considered a masterpiece by literary critics

Im so glad you posted this...someone recommended this book long ago and I totally forgot about it....thx for bringing it up....ordering now...

Canticle was a great read...But I dont think the US or Russia will get out the nuclear arsenal. North Korea, Pakistan or India more likely. Or Israel who doesn't have nuclear weapons.

I remember reading somewhere that the US has only had 21 years of its existence without some kind of armed conflict. War is peace. And big business.
I think other posters have summer it up nicely. Except Mexico. They have too much internal strife.

Open conflcit even a on regional scale are unlikely and on a global scale almost impossible. The problem is the balance of power is all on one side.

The Western Camp
The US by far the most powerful nation Earth alone is responsible for half the worlds defense spending. Beside the US are the other 27 members of NATO, including UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Turkey etc., beside them you have the very pro US EU states who are not in NATO but, support the alliance with troops, Sweden, Finland, Bosnia, Montenegro etc., by now you have 75% of the world defense spending. In places like South America the US maintains close military ties with Colombia and Chile. The only other power their is Brazil who would neither go to war for or against the US despite the fact they maintian a small US naval station. Africa is full of either US allies like Morocco, South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania, Ethopia, etc. or UK/French former colonies now allies. In the middle east you have by the most powerful state Israel as a US ally along with Jordan, Saudi Arabia, The Gulf states, and Yemen. In Asia US allies include Australia, New Zealand, Phillipines, Thialand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan along with UK allies Brunie and Malaysia.

Russian Camp
Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Iran, Cuba, Syria, Venezuala. (Although these states are isolated from each other and surrounded by more powerful enemies and would be unlikely to go to war to support each other because they really could do nothing to aid each other. In fact most of them are moving towards becoming failed states or like Iran and Cuba now flirting with the West)

China's Camp
Pakistan, North Korea (Although China does not really conduct any sort of military excersises with anyone and Pakistans only interest is keeping India in check which it also depends on the US for. We also know China and NK ties are not strong anymore)

Some people would be tempted to put China and Russia in one camp however the reality is they are more likely to go to war with other before they would ever go to war to support each other.

It is for this reason even regional wars are unikely until the day the US leaves the world stage.

I don't think that ww3 will be fought with thermonuclear bombs; to much radiation and they really make a mess of things.

However Bio/chem is another matter entirely. An entire population could have the antivirus and just waltz into basically an untouched country populated by dead people and very sick survivors.

reply to post by MrSpad


China and Russia have indeed done military maneuvers together at least in the last decade...My thesis in college was going to be on their relationship until I realized how boring grad school was. Also this was almost 10 years ago and I havent been following up on their ties. I wouldnt say they are allies but they both have interests that could support each other. The enemy of my my enemy is my friend...that kind of thing.

I am glad you posted on this thread the mrspad as you are spot on with military analysis in most of the threads I come across.

Russia and China Military Exercise Together 2014

Although this exercise is involving quite a big more than Russia and China it seems even this year they were working together.

My biggest most honest cautionary tale in all this is....the world does not like America.....I spent close to 30% of my adult life overseas and although people love Americans...they do not like America. We saw when we invaded Iraq and had a "coalition of nations".....most of which didn't even have a military. People are tired of our warmongering and we had very little support....at least publicly. A funny story about that is Germany said they wouldn't support us during the Iraq war then later they took over the security at our bases in Germany which freed up 1000s of soldiers to be deployed elsewhere....so I know we cant always believe what is in the media. Man I could talk about this # all day haha.

I think both Russia and China are more ideoligicaly suited to one another to be considered in the same camp. They probably decided the world would be a better place without the U.S

Bellor
I think both Russia and China are more ideoligicaly suited to one another to be considered in the same camp. They probably decided the world would be a better place without the U.S

What has changed then from the old Cold War?



Except now places like Vietnam actually fear Chinese expansion and have asked for US Naval presence, Eastern Europe [With the exception of Crimea, Recent election returns of 123% to join Russia, Which was better than the 100% vote for North Korean Great Leader Jr] no longer want to be a part of Russian influence.

if it went crazy with weapons here is what it would look like x 5000

those on the iss would get the best fireworks show in space

The polar bears really will be up a creak then

and much much later



that is why i stay drunk better safe than sorry