Let's Deny Ignorance: The Not So Doom-y Truth About Comet ISON

Tucket

Scurrilous
reply to post by Tucket

 

Probably because they don't state "Doom Porn" in the title? Also, they relate to ISON and if you haven't noticed there is plenty of discussion regarding this comet. Therefore, everyone is eager to separate fact from fiction and dispose of the fabrications. Isn't that what this site is about? Also, studying and being able to identify the misinformation only strengthens and distinguishes your understanding of the truth (hence you can quickly identify fallacies and eliminate them when used on the other side of a debate).

Doom porn isn't stated in the titles, but often it's suggested.
And why would a doom porn thread make someone wanna throw their iPad against the wall out of frustration?
Really, who cares?
Take it for what it is, cheap entertainment.

I was kidding. Lighten up, for crying out loud.

thanks for this OP... sometimes, when i see all the freaks going crazy about the appearance of a comet i can t help but thinking, that we never left the middle ages... all the superstition and doom... ridiculous... looks like these people WANT doom to happen, to brighten their dull, mundane lives... sad, really

Atlantican
Only one thing could possibly alter it's course and that's a direct hit from a CME. There is mass and extreme force involved.

Unlikely, but it could. I really don't care either way lol!

Eh? There's no mass involved, at least not in the sense you are implying and that it will 'push' a comet out of the way. CME's are comprised of solar winds and magnetic fields.

Atlantican
Only one thing could possibly alter it's course and that's a direct hit from a CME. There is mass and extreme force involved.

Unlikely, but it could. I really don't care either way lol!

Funny you should say that.


ISON and CME

Comet ISON is in solar probe's sights — and a storm is coming!

Comet ISON popped into the very edge of the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory's field of view late Tuesday, and it looks as if it might be in for an early surprise: an encounter with a storm of electrically charged particles from the sun.

The interaction with the outburst, known as a coronal mass ejection or CME, would take place a day before ISON makes its long-anticipated Thanksgiving Day swing around the sun. It's uncertain whether ISON will survive the next couple of days, but experts say a solar storm by itself shouldn't cause the comet's doom.

You can Count how many Tumbs for ya..! Great Post!

reply to post by Phage


Hi Mr.Phage! glad to see you here..All dooms Lover Get shake when you here..

wellcome back sir,
You must solve this..

Asteroid Under Comet Ison..
spaceweathergallery.com...

It is Ison's possible electrical interaction with the sun that has many of the doom merchants concerned. we will know in the next 3 or 4 days if there is anything to be worried about. If Ison makes it around the sun with little fanfare then we should be in for a spectacular sight come late december.

symptomoftheuniverse
how fast would a grenade explode in the vacume in space?

A grenade?
As it happens I had a few hours before my GF finishes work, so I dusted off an old program I wrote in VB5 back in the 1990's, reworked it a bit, and ran a simulation.

What would happen to the fragments, if aliens landed on comet ISON on November 1st, and exploded a grenade?
Using this page as a source, grenade fragments:

but some traveled as fast 1,500 miles per hour

1500 miles per hour.
2 414.016 kilometres / hour, or more than 6 days to get to the moon.

The simulation looked like this: Red for fragments, white for the comet:
From November1, to December 30th


Now recall thats only in two dimensions.
If you have a look at the orbit viewer in three dimensions, you'll see the hypothetical grenade fragments still arent anywhere near hitting anything.

OOOOOO
reply to post by Phage

 

There is at least one documented case of a meteor passing through a human. The individual, who remains nameless, was killed when a meteor passed through his chest. Death was instantaneous.
1420 BC Israel - Fatal meteorite impact.
588 AD China - 10 deaths; siege towers destroyed.
1321-68 China - People & animals killed; homes ruined.
1369 Ho-t'ao China - Soldier injured; fire.
02/03/1490 Shansi, China - 10,000 deaths.
09/14/1511 Cremona, Italy - Monk, birds, & sheep killed.
1633-64 Milono, Italy - Monk killed.
1639 China - Tens of deaths; 10 homes destroyed.
1647-54 Indian Ocean - 2 sailors killed aboard a ship.
07/24/1790 France - Farmer killed; home destroyed; cattle killed.
01/16/1825 Oriang, India - Man killed; woman injured.
02/27/1827 Mhow, India - Man injured.
12/11/1836 Macao, Brazil - Oxen killed; homes damaged.
07/14/1847 Braunau, Bohemia - Home struck by 371 lb meteorite.
01/23/1870 Nedagolla, India - Man stunned by meteorite.
06/30/1874 Ming Tung li, China - Cottage crushed, child killed.
01/14/1879 Newtown, Indiana, USA - Man killed in bed.
01/31/1879 Dun-Lepoelier, France - Farmer killed by meteorite.
11/19/1881 Grossliebenthal, Russia - Man injured.
03/11/1897 West Virginia, USA - Walls pierced, horse killed, man injured.
09/05/1907 Weng-li, China - Whole family crushed to death.
06/30/1908 Tunguska, Siberia - Fire, 2 people killed. (referenced throughout paper)
04/28/1927 Aba, Japan - Girl injured by meteorite.
12/08/1929 Zvezvan, Yugoslavia - Meteorite hit bridal party, 1 killed.
05/16/1946 Santa Ana, Mexico - Houses destroyed, 28 injured.
11/30/1946 Colford, UK - Telephones knocked out, boy injured.
11/28/1954 Sylacauga, Alabama, USA - 4 kg meteorite struck home, lady injured.
08/14/1992 Mbole, Uganda - 48 stones fell, roofs damaged, boy injured.

I note that you don't provide a source for this list. I think I'll go with the Natural History Museum, who has this to say;

Has any one been killed by a meteorite?
There have been no recorded deaths due to a meteorite fall. A dog was, however, reputedly killed by the fall of the Nakhla martian meteorite in Egypt in 1911 and a boy was hit but not seriously injured by the fall of the Mbale meteorite in Uganda in 1992. The chances of witnessing a meteorite fall let alone being hit by one are negligible.

www.nhm.ac.uk...

Dynamitrios
thanks for this OP... sometimes, when i see all the freaks going crazy about the appearance of a comet i can t help but thinking, that we never left the middle ages... all the superstition and doom... ridiculous... looks like these people WANT doom to happen, to brighten their dull, mundane lives... sad, really

edit on 27-11-2013 by Dynamitrios because: because i CAN !!!!!111!!

Whats so sad? that we still live in dark ages or that so many people on this planet are forced to have dull, mundane, and miserable lifes?

Anyway Ison was a huge disappointment,
1st it wont come close enough to destroy us and,
2nd it won't put any good naked-eye show either!
But don't worry folks maybe tommorow or next week or sometime, another big space rock will come our way and kill us all!
Hopefully...

reply to post by daryllyn


I agree that some of the info on Ison is twisted into a doom scenario, that happens with everything.
But you say "Let's deny a little ignorance", asking us to have faith in an institute like NASA, with their track record, sorry.... but to me that is the epitome of ignorance.

Phage
reply to post by hoochymama23

 

Either way, John Lear once said "there is an atmosphere" on the Moon and he was thought to be crazy.

Full of crap is not the same thing as crazy. The Moon has an "atmosphere" but Lear claimed it was breathable.

edit on 11/27/2013 by Phage because: (no reason given)

to use an old internet term

ROTFLMAOPMSL.

I couldn't have put that better Phage. Ol' Johnny was a character alright, and I very much doubt he was crazy.



Awesome thread Daryllyn. But so out of character for this place. You'll give it a reputation if you keep this up!

reply to post by alfa1


So Alfa1 are you admitting to knowing about the deadly space vehicle ISON way back in 1995 and writing simulations to interperet the data of when the aliens explode grenades on it as it approaches?

This is a mind blowing revelation.

Proof that nasa has lied to us all along, and we are in extreme danger. Why else would you code a simulation of an explosion on it, way back in 1995. And as you've never mentioned this until now, then obviously our demise is imminent.

Disclosure and destruction in the same event.



Thanks folks, it was nice knowing y'all..

alfa1

ThePeaceMaker
...could this theoretically cause the fragments to change course?

Well naturally a bit breaking off will be going on a different course, but the path of it is still constrained by the laws of physics.

Consider this:
Right now, comet ISON is moving at a speed determined by orbital mechanics, and the details of such orbits have been known for hundreds of years. An object in orbit around the sun moves in ways known to Kepler, back in the 1600's.
The orbit of comet ISON is known from thousands of observations, and so we can state with great certainty that it is currently moving at 230,000 miles per hour.

Read that again. 230,000 miles per hour.
At perihelion, at its fastest, it will be moving at 845,000 miles per hour.

So lets assume a bit breaks off, and explodes away from the comet at a massive 1000 miles per hour.

In comparison to the orbital speed it already has, thats only a small fraction of its momentum. Despite earlier claims that "NASA has no way of calculating...", you can even see without such calculations that to all intents and purposes the direction and velocity of the broken off bits is largely the same as the original comet.

Even for a bit to simply come to a stop, it would have to explode away in the reverse direction at 230,000 miles per hour. Isnt going to happen. And you doomsdayers want to send a large chunk flying in the direction of earth? Isnt going to happen.

You can of course do the calculations for yourself.
Exactly how much energy does it take to send a large chunk, lets say 1 mile across, flying away at a significant speed, lets say 1,000,000 miles per hour? (And what magical unicorn is going to provide that energy?)

Thanks for your reply and just for the record I'm not a doomsdayer I was simply asking a question. The question was could a pocket of releasing gas cause any fragment to change course. I didn't mention anything about pieces hitting earth

reply to post by daryllyn


Well Miss Daryllyn, I wasn't worried about it before, and I'm certainly not worried about it now.

Thank you for your common sense approach, I hope it helps relieve at least someone's 'doom and gloom'!

I cant believe how many people trust NASA, and actually believe we'd be warned if a comet was heading our way.
I put my hopes in some of the 'amateur' astronomers out there, i guess a few are honest.
This is just like what happens with scientists and global warming, they hide the truth from us.
DONT TRUST THEM!

reply to post by daryllyn


I can't see it yet! When can I expect to see it with human eyes?

I don't get it...... must be me but, why does everyone have such a problem with these so called doom and gloom sayers. I mean, why take it so literally, these are opinions by people based on their observations on information they perceive to be false, sinister, lies, inaccurate..... etc etc, that's all.
It doesn't necessarily mean these people have an ill intent.

It's up to the individual reader to discern the difference between fantasy and fact, and if you're incapable of that, what are you doing looking it up?

Personally, I find some of the doom porn highly entertaining, and every now and then, a bit of info comes out that just makes a bit of sense, to whatever avail.
And if the worst doesn't happen...... then you have another awesome excuse to party hard!

One problem I have is that they don't know whether or not it will break up. When calculating trajectory, you need speed and mass. If it breaks up the mass will be different so the trajectory will be different. We can't possibly know if or how it will break up, what size it will break into. Right now the mass is such that it will have an orbital arc that carries it away. Reduce the mass and the arc gets tighter bringing it closer and changing speeds. We will find out when it emerges on the other side.

jlafleur02
One problem I have is that they don't know whether or not it will break up. When calculating trajectory, you need speed and mass. If it breaks up the mass will be different so the trajectory will be different. We can't possibly know if or how it will break up, what size it will break into. Right now the mass is such that it will have an orbital arc that carries it away. Reduce the mass and the arc gets tighter bringing it closer and changing speeds. We will find out when it emerges on the other side.

But the orbital plane of the comet is different from earths so it won't matter. Your thinking is two dimensional like Kahn in Star Trek you need to think 3D like Kirk.