Quake Watch 2012

reply to post by TrueAmerican


I'm on the plane to berkeley to talk Cascadia earthquake early warning this morning, so the discussion is timely.

Originally posted by JohnVidale
reply to post by TrueAmerican

 

I'm on the plane to berkeley to talk Cascadia earthquake early warning this morning, so the discussion is timely.

Excellent, thanks man.

Any news you can come up with on OBS status and/or data from that one network that has them deployed in Cascadia would be much appreciated.

reply to post by JohnVidale


John I don't expect you to discuss Federal funding, however I don't think it does any harm to let people such as yourself know what the feelings are out there in the places that don't matter to Government.

This is a conspiracy site and we conspire! TA quite rightly says we do not want you to go somewhere else (not that there is a better conspiracy site to go to ) but also we would not be expected to have to change because of your presence. There is no bad feeling in all of this, other than towards Governments everywhere!

Good luck with getting more funding for Cascadia.

On a lighter note

But residents of the village of Dull in Scotland are hoping that an association with a town called Boring in Oregon, US, will boost tourism and lead to closer links between the two communities.

Read more: Daily Mail

John Audubon was not a spy. He is an expception. Because he was an independant person. Rock on. The were other exceptions. I think Muir.

The others, including Darwin, were out runnning around the globe bringing intelligence from every corner of the empire. Darwin was also a geologists. The naturalist Wallace was not an active spy trying to uncover the designs of a foreign government. He was a scientist using the method to record the world so that it may enlighten the world by empirical measures. Maps and all that. You can invade, or elude, if there's no roads, or if there are and you don't know which direction to go. The geology would tell you what kind of soils you'll find. And the botonist will tell you where rubber and tea will grow the best. India etc... The scientists are part of the machinery. Part of the military. The British needed the scientist to inform them so the armies could make plans and know where a threat may come from. Like a natural threat. Volcano, earthquake, tsunami.

The Americans conquered the Japanese and they own the Pacific. If you don't believe this. Just get yourself a navy and try to dispute this. All of these island nation are very suseptible to natural forces. The army needs the USGS's data geeks to inform them where to put there boats.

Also, the Americans pride themselves on being a benevolent giant. If you are an impoverished third world nation, you'll get lots of wheat bags with the American Flag printed boldly. The Americans want to win hearts and minds. When there's a disaster, the American Military is never far away. They respond quickly and since they have specialized equipment, they can rescue and feed many desperate people. In time, the saved people will be very appreciative and will remember the help. So, when it comes to a vote of confindence when the Americans need it, the obligatory nation will rarely fail to support America. I should start spelling America the way Mitt does.

To try and not have this discussion become political is impossible. It's all about the politics. In Japan, before the quake, the height of the break walls was a political decision. The politicians decided which researchers had the information they wanted to hear. Not the researchers infromation they needed to know. Because that was there as well and was ignored and dismissed. They were told of a giant tsunami and they never accounted for it in the final math. Politics determines which data is the real data.

Cascadia is a real risk. And it is a risk that is not taken as seriously as it should be. Why?
Politics.

Hey, that Geophysicist is a smart feller. He understands like I do that if you keep doing something, something else keeps happening. It's so silly I'm giggling. It's simple physics. How can you with a straight face deny such a thing?

To demonstrate to my seven year old son why this is wrong I set up a simple experiment.

To do this you need a ballloon. A straw. and lots of play doe to make crust.
You put the straw into the open end of the balloon and tap it to make it air tight. When you blow in the straw, you can inflate the balloon.

Now lay the balloon on the table. With your play or plastercine, model yourself some ground with maybe a home or building on it. Put a roadway across part of it for effect.

Now blow into the straw slowly up and down for awhile. You may see some cracks develope. Blow more vigorously up and down and you got an earthquake.

It's silly really. Kinda like thinking you can keep sweeping everything under the rug.


edit


how am i too read this really?

I think LDEO are spot on at 6.0 for yesterays Maule, Chile quake
You don't need $60millon budget to be able see it, just take a look at the LISS graphs (SNZO in this case)
From my Archives - Chile
yesterdays quake
a slightly smaller trace 5.9
a slightly bigger trace 6.1, also from Atacama
6.2, too big
another 6.2
6.3, no way
as you see there is a definite difference in the size of the signals, (even taking into consideration the huge length of Chile the distance from NZ doesn't vary that much), to be able to tell the magnitude to within 0.1 size.
this is what a 7.1 looks like

If anyone mentioned it I didn't see, so what did the Chileans say?
6.1ML

JV says 0.1 isn't a significant difference
Well when you get up into the 6's I believe it is
as you can see from the chart below, the difference in Tons of TNT released between a 5.9 and a 6.0 is equal to a Mag 5.644


Edit:
also the difference between a 5.9 (usgs) and a 6.1 (emsc) is equal to another 5.9
so size does matter, a great deal

reply to post by JohnVidale

Thank you, John. I sincerely hope it goes well! And like Puter and TA have said, we certainly want you to stick around (so that among other things, we can pick your brains )

******************************************************************************************************************************

If anyone wants to read a little more about the efforts of John and some of his colleagues in trying to establish a quake early-warning system, the UC Berkeley News site has an excellent article here entitled "Seismologists urge creation of earthquake early warning system along Pacific Coast".

The article refers to a conference/summit held at Berkeley in April last year, where John was co-chair. Here are a couple of extracts:

UC Berkeley’s Allen joined John Vidale, a University of Washington, Seattle, professor of earth and space sciences and director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, and Thomas Heaton, director of the Earthquake Engineering Research Laboratory and professor of geophysics and of civil engineering at the California Institute of Technology, in organizing the summit.

A system likely would be established in California first, because testing of a statewide network has been going on for at least five years, but the Pacific Northwest would be added as issues with the system are ironed out. But scientists up and down the coast would be working together to make the system work along the entire coast, Vidale said.

“We’d all be sharing the data, because the faults don’t stop at the state borders, or at national borders,” he said.

And

At the moment, funding for an earthquake early warning system is uncertain because of questions about the USGS budget. However, the seismologists and transportation experts present were adamant that the time is now.

(Bolding mine.)

I think we can all say "amen" to that! The time is definitely now.

One final extract:

“The countries that have early warning systems today largely built them after large killer earthquakes. It’s our hope that it won’t take a killer earthquake in the U.S. to realize this system,” said Doug Given, earthquake early warning coordinator for the U.S. Geological Survey. “The spirit is willing but the budget is weak.”

The California system would cost around $80 million over five years. That's peanuts for a massive economy like the US. I'd guess such a system to cover all the PNW might run several times that amount, but wouldn't it be worth it?

Eventually, it would pay for itself many times over. And not just in dollar terms but in something far more precious, namely the lives it could help to save.

Mike

Originally posted by ericblair4891
Also, the Americans pride themselves on being a benevolent giant. If you are an impoverished third world nation, you'll get lots of wheat bags with the American Flag printed boldly. The Americans want to win hearts and minds. When there's a disaster, the American Military is never far away. They respond quickly and since they have specialized equipment, they can rescue and feed many desperate people. In time, the saved people will be very appreciative and will remember the help. So, when it comes to a vote of confindence when the Americans need it, the obligatory nation will rarely fail to support America.

Only if it suits the political agenda.
Forgotten Katrina and Haiti already?
US Military relief fiascos

reply to post by PuterMan


PM, there is no need to change because of John's presence. There is only the need to discuss earthquakes in this thread. By the time we are talking about funding allocations for equipment/labor, we are way over in the political spectrum, and way off topic. If we simply stay on topic and talk about the technical aspects of quakes, in the QUAKE WATCH thread, I don't expect there to be a problem. You could always start a thread over in the politics section about the appalling lack of funding for seismology science...

Just a few minutes ago

Type: Earthquake
30 minutes ago
Magnitude: 5.6
DateTime: Thursday June 7 2012, 20:54:29 UTC
Region: Western Turkey
Depth: 15 km
Source: CSEM-EMSC Feed


And this from USGS

Magnitude 4.9
Date-Time

Thursday, June 07, 2012 at 20:54:27 UTC
Thursday, June 07, 2012 at 11:54:27 PM at epicenter

Location 40.825°N, 27.906°E
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles)
Region WESTERN TURKEY
Distances

37 km (23 miles) ESE (118°) from Tekirdag, Turkey
91 km (56 miles) WSW (256°) from Istanbul, Turkey
120 km (75 miles) NW (306°) from Bursa, Turkey
425 km (264 miles) SSE (159°) from BUCHAREST, Romania

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 12.6 km (7.8 miles); depth +/- 2.7 km (1.7 miles)
Parameters NST=124, Nph=125, Dmin=157 km, Rmss=1.02 sec, Gp= 32°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6
Source

Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID usb000a9zd

kinda odd place

Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude
4.1
Date-Time
Thursday, June 07, 2012 at 23:19:26 UTC
Thursday, June 07, 2012 at 04:19:26 PM at epicenter
Location
58.104°N, 124.664°W
Depth
14.5 km (9.0 miles)
Region
BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA
Distances
137 km (85 miles) SW of Fort Nelson, British Columbia, Canada
247 km (153 miles) SSW of Fort Liard, NW Territories, Canada
990 km (615 miles) N of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
3566 km (2215 miles) NW of OTTAWA, Ontario, Canada
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 17.3 km (10.7 miles); depth +/- 8.2 km (5.1 miles)
Parameters
NST= 81, Nph= 82, Dmin=500.9 km, Rmss=1.15 sec, Gp= 58°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usb000aa4c

INFO

John Audubon was not a spy,,, whew ,,,
i feel better


12
13
14

Its a DATA Packet,,
with checksums.


hey its a guess aright now been out of the game so so long,,
sure why not.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

If we simply stay on topic and talk about the technical aspects of quakes

And the 'foibles' of the USGS system is not about technical aspects of quakes I take it?

It very much is a technical aspect even if it is only the information delivery.

$80 Million for California and maybe 3 times as much for Cascadia let's be generous and say $350 Million.

Estimated Minimum Incurred Costs of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Programs, 1940-1996 Total: $5,821.0 billion
Predator spy planes - which are 27 feet long, powered by a high-performance snowmobile engine, and cost $4.5 million apiece - deployment INSIDE the US borders - 30,000 = $135 Billion.

Need I say any more? :shk:

reply to post by lurksoften


i saw that, too. Cant say ive seen em there before.

doesnt look like its happened there any time in the recentpast.

neic.usgs.gov...

on budget -

NASA kills X-ray telescope, blames project's cost

By MARCIA DUNN | Associated Press

news.yahoo.com/nasa-kills-x-ray-telescope-blames-projects-cost-175618986.html

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — NASA killed a new X-ray telescope mission on Thursday, two years before its planned launch.

The Gravity and Extreme Magnetism Small Explorer mission, or GEMS for short, was supposed to blast off in 2014 to study black holes and neutron stars. But external reviews found the project would likely come in considerably over budget.

GEMS was selected under a strict cost cap, NASA officials said, unlike the price-busting James Webb Space Telescope to be launched in 2018.

(...)

It will cost NASA an estimated $13 million to close out the project, Hertz said. After adding in the money already spent on GEMS, the final tab for the space agency will be $50 million.

No rocket had yet been purchased for the mission, and the telescope itself had not yet been built.

A number of existing observatories can address some of GEMS' science questions, Hertz said, including the NuStar telescope due to lift off next week from Kwajalein Atoll in the Pacific.

___

Online:

GEMS mission: gems.gsfc.nasa.gov...

reply to post by stanguilles7


here a decent site i was looking at for Canada lol

Canada EQ

reply to post by lurksoften


i know

what???????????

cant go over the CyberBorder?????

send it too USGS,,please,,
or too whomever this MAP belongs
hisz.rsoe.hu...
,
makes it easier too read,,
thnks,,

hisz.rsoe.hu...

just throw the,,,, DATA ,,,,,at the usgs server ,,,i bet the can take it from there

A Canadian,,
interested in Earthqakes,, since 1950's,,,,
and world wide too

and before 1950's,,

ya its a canadian thing,,

reply to post by BobAthome


Bob, if you are trying to tell us something...Can you just spit it out in plain English please? All I have at the moment is I think you are Jim Berkland.

Quake swarm alert!!!!!!

Salton Sea Area !

quakes.globalincidentmap.com...

So during the last hour there are numerous earthquakes of up to 2.5 magnitude taking place around the Salton sea... anyone else wanna check this out?? is this normal to have so many in a matter of an hour... maybe something bigger coming?? www.data.scec.org...

Originally posted by steve95988
So during the last hour there are numerous earthquakes of up to 2.5 magnitude taking place around the Salton sea... anyone else wanna check this out?? is this normal to have so many in a matter of an hour... maybe something bigger coming?? www.data.scec.org...

edit on 01/04/2009 by steve95988 because: spelling

Aware of this activity and keeping my eye on this one.