Quake Watch 2012

Originally posted by MamaJ
By reading this article I think its safe to say that even European leaders are coo coo for cocoa puffs. zen-haven.dk...

I am no expert.... Very illiterate when it comes to quakes and volcanic activity but it could in fact be related to magma. The Italy quake that is. I also find it hard to believe all of the recent quake activity since the 20th of May are aftershocks.

Puterman when you look at the signatures do they ALL look like aftershocks?? Thanks :-)

ETA: in an earlier post I wrote about a concern of mine with Bulgarias supervolcano.... Well... Bulgaria .. Bolivia... Whatever lol. BOLIVIA's supervolcano ( Uturuncu) that has been on the rise is...well.....should be a concern to all of us I would think because we are only studying it as of late in depth. Its rising supposedly at a rapid rate and I for one want to know why and what does it mean for us? Here is an artcle.... www.dailymail.co.uk...

How would it be actively growing and not causing any thing out of the norm??

edit on 30-5-2012 by MamaJ because: (no reason given)

Good Questions!!

reply to post by ericblair4891

Just to prove I can take any side in a debate, I'll now fight with Puterman and say he is wrong and that everything is 'normal'. A couple of days ago, I was about to say "everything is too quiet", and as I was just going to say that, a few 6+ and 5+s started showing up about on schedule. So, as I looked at things, nothing jumped out.

I have been on both sides of the "preshock/aftershock" debate. But to me, Italy is following a 'normal' pattern. It is obvious that the 6M was the "mainshock". And that the swarm, is just aftershocks.

The swarm is but the incidence of a 5.8 that some agencies place as a 6.0 on the 29th is out of the ordinary in that is is only 2 pips below the main shock and not a complete magnitude. If it was not slap bang in the middle of the others I would have said it was a separate event.

Puterman, I'm sure you must mean it's out of the ordinary in a statistical sense. Meaning, Italy doesn't often get large quakes and lots of aftershocks. Italian quakes are not rare, but also, they are not as common as they are in other regions. I think I'm just looking for an argument and want to split hairs.

Impossible to prove, but interesting nonetheless is that around the time the Italian aftershocks returned, Bulgaria chimed in. I was wondering about remote triggering, but then it was only one quake and life is a coincidence.

This particular area of Italy does NOT get many quakes. Taking a 50 km radius of the current events there were only a handful of quakes from 1974 onwards. With restricting this to 44.5 to 44.99 Lat and 11 to 11.5 Lon this is all there is on INGV

30/10/2005 18:49:20 44.817 11.461 6.6 2
30/08/2006 15:43:50 44.574 11.026 10 1.6
15/04/2008 02:12:02 44.897 11.409 37.1 2.3
07/06/2008 04:25:10 44.89 11.271 1.3 3
22/07/2008 22:25:12 44.581 11.219 30.5 1.7
23/07/2008 03:22:25 44.893 11.193 2 3.2
24/07/2008 02:07:06 44.886 11.183 1.5 2.5
19/08/2008 16:55:25 44.873 11.186 1 2.9
19/12/2008 09:07:03 44.879 11.153 19.2 2.5
31/07/2009 10:24:03 44.754 11.077 48 1.9
16/11/2009 22:21:38 44.878 11.415 1 3
17/11/2009 01:22:23 44.857 11.382 3 2.1
17/11/2009 07:42:59 44.882 11.404 5 2.1
18/11/2009 07:45:36 44.874 11.378 2.5 2.9
14/01/2010 04:34:37 44.9 11.372 1.9 2.5
15/01/2010 19:13:02 44.796 11.294 27.8 2.4
26/07/2010 07:13:52 44.933 11.335 2.2 2.3
03/07/2011 03:55:38 44.89 11.08 24.9 2.1
19/07/2011 19:59:31 44.922 11.33 10.4 1.8
27/07/2011 00:00:57 44.979 11.357 5 2
11/09/2011 03:38:51 44.983 11.288 5 2.2
27/09/2011 16:44:35 44.9 11.184 6.7 2
27/12/2011 04:44:32 44.861 11.175 10 1.9
01/04/2012 10:22:12 44.81 11.246 35.7 2.6
18/05/2012 19:40:18 44.904 11.148 1.9 2.9
18/05/2012 19:44:43 44.925 11.384 9.2 1.8
19/05/2012 17:09:35 44.891 11.202 2.6 2.5
19/05/2012 23:13:27 44.898 11.258 6.2 4.1
19/05/2012 23:42:54 44.886 11.296 4.2 2.2
20/05/2012 02:03:53 44.889 11.228 6.3 5.9

The 5.9 is the start of the current episode. Using the USGS data from the circular search the results are much the same. So whilst not unknown in this particular area the incidence of earthquakes currently being experienced is apparently unusual in terms of (almost) living memory. I would say that was out of the ordinary both statistically and in fact.

No split ends are not good!

.............Continued because of the restriction on space we now have in place of being forced to write more we can now write less.

continuation to post by PuterMan


Bulgaria? One? No at least 29. Try using EMSC for European events. USGS does not cut it for them.

Prov,Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
emsc,2012-05-30 05:36:23, 42.581, 22.965, 3.4, 2.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-29 17:15:12, 42.631, 22.977, 2.5, 2.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-29 07:23:32, 42.591, 23.011, 3.7, 2.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-27 18:56:29, 42.951, 23.303, 2.6, 2.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-26 13:18:43, 42.397, 22.491, 2.2, 2.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-25 07:08:40, 42.642, 22.942, 2.8, 2.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-23 21:59:15, 42.574, 23.102, 4.3, 10.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-23 13:31:33, 42.630, 23.000, 3.0, 8.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-23 11:41:09, 42.603, 23.021, 3.3, 5.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-23 10:57:25, 42.585, 23.002, 3.2, 2.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-22 20:52:27, 42.605, 23.041, 2.7, 2.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-22 19:52:35, 42.644, 22.932, 2.9, 2.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-22 17:07:42, 42.646, 22.985, 3.9, 2.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-22 16:26:13, 42.612, 22.954, 3.1, 2.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-22 04:29:12, 42.645, 22.918, 3.2, 2.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-22 04:09:58, 42.649, 22.997, 3.3, 2.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-22 03:41:37, 42.680, 23.044, 2.8, 10.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-22 03:23:26, 42.390, 23.357, 3.3, 2.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-22 02:13:29, 42.599, 23.006, 4.2, 5.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-22 02:11:07, 42.683, 22.975, 3.0, 2.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-22 01:30:51, 42.634, 23.046, 4.7, 10.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-22 00:55:57, 42.584, 23.048, 3.0, 13.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-22 00:49:24, 42.666, 22.972, 2.9, 2.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-22 00:43:49, 42.597, 22.958, 3.7, 10.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-22 00:23:34, 42.601, 22.971, 3.1, 2.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-22 00:16:52, 42.601, 22.991, 2.6, 2.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-22 00:15:04, 42.580, 23.044, 3.0, 2.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-22 00:04:52, 42.629, 22.956, 4.7, 2.0, Bulgaria
emsc,2012-05-22 00:00:33, 42.656, 23.009, 5.6, 10.0, Bulgaria

reply to post by MamaJ

By reading this article I think its safe to say that even European leaders are coo coo for cocoa puffs. zen-haven.dk...

No problems there. Dr Erik Klemetti says there is no danger (Big Think/Wired blog) so that is it folks there is no danger. Actually I am inclined to agree since they are drilling a core and not injecting water into it under pressure. I doubt very much if that will have any effect at all.

I am no expert.... Very illiterate when it comes to quakes and volcanic activity but it could in fact be related to magma. The Italy quake that is. I also find it hard to believe all of the recent quake activity since the 20th of May are aftershocks.

Puterman when you look at the signatures do they ALL look like aftershocks?? Thanks :-)

Well they do but as I all said above the 5.8 interests me being bigger than your average aftershock. Volcanic any of them. No I do not believe so.

ETA: in an earlier post I wrote about a concern of mine with Bulgarias supervolcano.... Well... Bulgaria .. Bolivia... Whatever lol. BOLIVIA's supervolcano ( Uturuncu) that has been on the rise is...well.....should be a concern to all of us I would think because we are only studying it as of late in depth. Its rising supposedly at a rapid rate and I for one want to know why and what does it mean for us? Here is an artcle.... www.dailymail.co.uk...

How would it be actively growing and not causing any thing out of the norm??

Well first off all active volcanoes grow. That IS the norm for them. I remember looking at this one last year. You can see what I wrote here on TAs thread about it

You can also read what JustMike said not long after me and along the same lines.

Is this one getting at you? You seem to be following it around the ATS threads!!

Here, have a good read of this and calm your nerves: Dr. Shanaka de Silva Answers Your Questions About Supervolcanoes, Uturuncu and More

reply to post by PuterMan


It IS, It IS!!!!!

But I digress, thanks for taking all the gloom and doom out of it, for now anyway. No, seriously I just keep thinking about Europe disappearing in a blink of an eye and so I do wonder if indeed it were to ever happen, how could it happen?

A blink of an eye? Thats pretty dang QUICK!

reply to post by PuterMan


Actually I'd like to go back on the side of the fence I started in the first place. I thought this latest big quakes was the same as the 6M. So, there may not have been a real main shock. And I think the Bulgaria is related.

Got a bit excited when I seen SNZO this afternoon, looked like a Mag 8+ Pacific Area at 20:24ish


Na looks like its a technical fault, its been "fuzzy" for about 24hrs, with wind type lines, but there haven't been high winds at all in the Lower North Island at all, in fact is dead calm.
A couple of other LISS Pacific graphs are playing up too.

Dare I say it ? Extremely quiet - Europe especially . The Italy aftershocks were coming thick and fast and now EMSC only showing a 3.5 in Greece some 6 hours ago - and NOTHING since .....

On second thoughts perhaps they will do what they did the other day when suddenly a whole page of aftershocks appeared all at once ?

reply to post by slidingdoor

(oops i replied to slidingdoor by mistake- i'm too excitable right now to make total sense. so, yes it does seem a little quiet)


HEY PUTERMAN!

I don't care if there's been talk that you're CIA, I would like your opinion before I over-react. Meet me over at Volcano Watch. I'll wait until you get there. In the meantime, I'll post a picture I captured for you to look at when you get there.

Are you a fan of Abbott and Costello? If so you will be able to imagine exactly how I yelled, "Hey, Puterman!"

Oh, and here's a puzzler that has me doubting mine own eyes. Earlier, when I looked at Popo's seismo, at about 9:09 there was a noticable quake. I wasn't surprised because I was already monitoring it closely to see if it match the webcam. When the page refreshed later, the single shock somehow doubled and there's two. I wish I had captured the earlier version to prove my point. And this weirdness is not what is concerning me....

I hadn't done any archiving for about 4 days, looked at the Geonet data though, seen this one and thought "oh yeah another 5 in Fiordland, will get to that next day or so"

REF: 3713212
LAT/LONG: -45.16927 172.15179
UTC: 2012/5/28 2:51:41
NZST: 2012/5/28 14:51:41
DEPTH: 211 km
MAG: 5.019 ML
LOCATION: os E of Oamaru, Otago
Reported as Felt: No
Energy Released: 509.223 tonnes of TNT

Source : Geonet archived by Muzzy

Turns out its not Fiordland at all, ITS OFF OAMARU, ON THE EAST COAST, SOUTH ISLAND

I have NEVER seen a quake that big over that side, south of Banks Peninsula in all my NZ Quake Research


orange icon
Interactive Map

It is quite possible the Longitude reading is an error, there was a Mag 4 and a Mag 3 on roughly the same Latitude later in the day over in Fiordland.

If it is not a mistake then this quake adds even more mystery to the already altered South Island seismic model created by the Christchurch 7.1 in 2010


Edit: Deep too!, in fact too deep for Fiordland, thats why I don't think its an error.

The seismos in Mexico are whacky. It wasn't my imagination. This first one shows a earthquake in Oaxaca. I don't know the magnitude because it isn't listed yet.



Here's the Popo siemo that shows the quake. But for some reason there's an extra, duplicate signature- an echo.




The when the page updated, there was another echo.



Oh why did I ever start read these damned things anyway?
So, that mystery is solved. It's a technical glitch. But I still don't have an answer for my earlier wondering. I'm trying to convince myself it was a landslide.

And another echo when it updated again. goofy

Okay, I figured out what it was that I saw this morning on Popo's webcam. It was a landslide. I'm glad I talked myself down off the ledge. I'm not going to tell you what I thought I might be seeing. But after checking my pictures and thinking it through, I can see it was ash that was kicked up after an earthquake.

The mountain is covered with a thick layer of ash. Imagine yourself after you've been standing still in a heavy snow for a very long time. Then you shake. The snow falls off you like mini avalanches. Well, Popo is having ash avalanches. Landslides.

Thank goodness. I was begining to worry. And panick.

Well thats the whole of Italy,,
North,,too South,,,

5.6 in Antarctica. Kind of a weird location. Anyway, is it just me or is the map for Antarctica on the global incident website way off compared to the satellite image? o.O Just wondering what the basis for the regular map is. On another note, California is making up for being quiet the past two days. I've been irritable and pent up all day today. I haven't been sleeping peacefully either...

reply to post by OneAndCreakily


Looks about right on Global Incident considering it is right in the bent out of shape part at the bottom on the map. As usual they are showing 2 quakes but there is of course only one. They plot both the USGS and EMSC versions on the map and fail to make any distinction between the two.

Completely useless as a serious tool.

I don't think the location is particularly weird. It is about 1000km from Erebus - possibly could even be connected though I doubt it.

Just wondering what the basis for the regular map is

Take an orange peel and flatten it, fill in all the bits that are missing so everything at the north and south is completely distorted and hey presto you have a flat completely unrepresentative map of a spherical planet.

I think that Antarctica 5.5 quake is related to the os Oamaru, E Coast, SI 5.0 quake I mentioned above yesterday.
Both are "unusual"

Been quite unstable SE of New Zealand over the last month, as you can see on the LDEO map

Just for the record, Mt Bird graph

Source: erebus.nmt.edu...
also
LISS South Pole


No one posted a link for it
earthquake.usgs.gov...

For those following the Emilia-Romagna, Italy quakes
eqarchives.wordpress.com...

or
direct link to Interactive Map
Orange markers are aftershocks of the 5.9 up to the 5.8, grey markers are aftershocks since the 5.8

for the DialUppers, a static map (click for larger image)

reply to post by muzzy

You have exceeded the maximum window of 4 hours allowed to edit your post.

BS, its been only 2 hours.

Came back to add I did a graph with all the aftershocks on it, bit of a wavy line the way the aftershocks trail out, unusual, almost tidal

9 hours later

Russian Top 10 for May (Mag 6+)
interactive




I can't give you the USGS Top 10 for May, because they only have 8 , and 3 of those are different ones than what the Russians have

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude
6.0
Date-Time
Saturday, June 02, 2012 at 07:52:53 UTC
Saturday, June 02, 2012 at 04:52:53 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
22.109°S, 63.625°W
Depth
519.6 km (322.9 miles)
Region
SALTA, ARGENTINA
Distances
8 km (4 miles) SE of Yacuiba, Bolivia
54 km (33 miles) NNE of Tartagal, Salta, Argentina
131 km (81 miles) ESE of Tarija, Bolivia
1469 km (912 miles) NNW of BUENOS AIRES, D.F., Argentina
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 13.7 km (8.5 miles); depth +/- 2.9 km (1.8 miles)
Parameters
NST=592, Nph=683, Dmin=618.9 km, Rmss=0.82 sec, Gp= 14°,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=E
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usb000a5a0

USGS info

reply to post by lurksoften


*4u

Bide a wee. This may come down to 5.9. (ETA: Oh well I got that wrong. EMSC have gone up to 6.0 Mw)

GFZ have 5.9 and SCARDEC (GeoAzur) have 6.0 but EMSC have 5.8 Mw


5.0 Mw foreshock to this quake.