SP500 50/200ma death cross forming

Yes, the link was to daily. I updated the link in the prior post for 3month.

I also did see on Business Insider that Shanghai seems to lead DOW, with the might that China has Link. Kramer brought this up tonight and also pointed out that the Baltic Dry Index leads Shanghai (I couldn't find a good chart or way to support BDI and SSE). With the right date range, I can see Shanghai leading S&P500 - Image below.

Click here for bigger image...Blue line is Shanghai (SSE), and Red line is S&P 500 (^GSPC).
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/3173371a991d.png[/atsimg]

[edit on 8-7-2010 by Dbriefed]

reply to post by Dbriefed


Shanghai really isn't leading or lagging. If you extend that chart to present time you will see that it is pretty different. It lead out of recession though because it is included in that whole eastern emerging market category. Look at other emerging markets, like Brazil (although not Eastern...)

A good example is the MSCI - Singapore Futures if you can find that chart. I only have it in a java application that can't save a photo. A good place to start with correlation is bonds if you want to put some work into the relation between between bond yield's and SP500.

You will find that the bond market is telling you to buy the US Equity market if you come up with the same analysis as I do. Let me know.

reply to post by GreenBicMan
Thanks for your feedback, I appreciate it.

I don't see Singapore leading, it seems to mirror the S&P500. I do see the peaks and valleys of Shanghai leading the S&P500 though. Shanghai (blue), S&P500 (red), Singapore (green). Like you said other markets will lead us, but I believe the fundamentals (Residential & Commercial real estate, Bank health, sovereign debt, unemployment) means they'll lead us long term down.

Full image here.
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/575c3b370673.png[/atsimg]

reply to post by Dbriefed


Yields On Notes and Bonds

Go here, download the data into excel. Graph the rates on the 10 year note and 30 year bond putting them together in one chart.

After that, find the historical EOD data from (yahoo maybe?) for the SP500. Put that into excel, graph that. Compare the graphs then let me know what you see.

Just came across this? What do you make of it?
______beforeitsnews/story/99/062/China_Demotes_US_Credit_Rating_-_900_Billion_at_....html

The death cross is not as scary as the following.....

Go to a chart service. Pull a monthly chart for the Dow Jones Industrial Average for about 20 or 30 years. As you can plainly see, we are near the tail end of the grand daddy of all head and shoulder formations which is one of the most deadly formations. This one is long term and monthly which means it is more reliable.

The right shoulder is mid-way time wise from becoming more symetric with the left shoulder. This implies the bearish movements may not occur for awhile but at the same time, could occur anytime. I prefer parabolic curves for timing and on this specific chart, price bounced right on it.

Charts predict news events. Fundamental investors usually buy from technical investors and the other way around. Prechter recently came out in the press and mentioned 1000 for the Dow. Look where the neckline is.....

reply to post by EinsteinLight


1) Mr. Wave Analysis is continuously wrong, but no one seems to mind.

2) Too many people are talking this H&S thing up - everyone and their brother. Too many people know about this. The market is always set up to hurt the most amount at any one time.

Too many retail people think they have the leg up on everyone else... sounds like it is time to go the opposite way of all that (always fade retail / public opinion - rule#1).

Although it should be watched, I would not be betting my future on that or DOW 1000 (if there even could be such a thing, IMO it is impossible).

I am not a hedge fund manager wave guy nor am I a bond daddy.

I figure the peak of the right shoulder is a couple or three of years away but could happen any time. The only thing that I am aware of to negate this long term formation are higher prices than the head which is the all time high.

The majority of people have no idea of this formation and if they did, ignore the reality of the potential force thrust. They think rates can't fall further than zero giving a false impression of bullishness. On the contrary. It is very bearish. This gives the fundamental people false confidence. Many expect inflation to take off with a potential for the Dow to climb towards 50,000 as the result of the Fed debasing currency.

Here are some hints as charts predict news events. I do not think it will be another war. Could be a major derivative failure rippling like dominoes through financial institutions thereby causing bank runs by citizens.

The US market retreat in 2010 has reverse mirrored the strength of the US dollar. Over in Europe it looks like they will have to bail out their economies for some time, and that puts pressure on the European currencies. That is the only clear pattern that has emerged in 2010.

The US dollar which was over bought in June may find support in the near future as it approaches the longer term upward trending support lines. On the other hand if the us dollar index breaks support at 82 we should see a huge market rally.



[edit on 11-7-2010 by Bordon81]

While we're at it, how about that Baltic Dry Index -- down almost 50% since may. Yikes.

Originally posted by jazz10
Just came across this? What do you make of it?
______beforeitsnews/story/99/062/China_Demotes_US_Credit_Rating_-_900_Billion_at_....html

Jazz10:

Thx, J

Unfolding.

reply to post by silent thunder


Now THAT is scary.. because while Market charts and histories and projections, all that bs, is all hypothesis .. guesses, assumptions, estimates and botched theories that you have to be drunk to understand.

Baltic Dry Index is a leading economic indicator .. -50% could spell out more pain for us lil guys. Maybe not the markets, but for the unemployed, underemployed, and soon to be unemployed.. it sucks.

As GBM explained the markets seem to track contra to common sense almost as if to fool JQ public. Bullish and Bearish news often gets factored into the indices before the public has time to react.

With the Democrats spinning up the success of Obamas stimulus package, announcing any new easing or bail out legislation before the November elections would be counter productive. The party line should be that the recession is over and it was the Democrats stimulus measures that saved the day.

The Republicans on the other hand will prefer to take credit for legislation that gets passed after November when there is a chance the Democrats lose the House majority vote.

So the bottom line is that through the end of 2010 The US will likely continue to be seen as tightening their credit markets in response to a recovering economy. That should put pressure on commodity prices as well as stocks till next year.

Originally posted by Dbriefed
Death cross created. Some articles claim the metric is useless now, and the rally creates doubt in the belief in the metric. However if true, the S&P 500 which is now about 1,028 has a 200ma ceiling of 1,111 today and a long term downward trend for the next 6-12 months, or more.

Wish I knew more about this stuff and had more confidence in it. I could have retired by investing in 20/20 hindsight.

I'm watching the S&P with interest today, seems to be bouncing off the ceiling of 1,095.

Ceiling now seems to be 1,083.

I'm curious as to what the professional long term investors are thinking. I'm thinking a 6-12 month target down by 40%.

Short term I think professionals are buying on a Friday low, selling on Monday high.

rent that far off? Whats the score now then?