U.S. housing starts, permits touch 9 month high

Originally posted by JayinAR
reply to post by mental modulator

 

I have little doubt that things will improve.
That isn't the point of *my* objections.

My objections are that they aren't fixing the problems at hand. They are crutching up the underlying issues and passing the buck to the next guy in charge.

This isn't about Obama. This mess started with Bush, or arguably Clinton before him.

This isn't a partisan issue. No matter how much you want it to be.
...

If you really want to get a grip on this housing mess... try this 2002 opinion piece in the NYT:

The basic point is that the recession of 2001 wasn't a typical postwar slump, brought on when an inflation-fighting Fed raises interest rates and easily ended by a snapback in housing and consumer spending when the Fed brings rates back down again. This was a prewar-style recession, a morning after brought on by irrational exuberance. To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.

www.nytimes.com...

Following the housing bubble burst... Alan Greenspan when on to do some consultancy work for Pimco.

I'll restate that so it stands out nice and clear:

"Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble."

In an article of the NYT, fully six years before that very same bubble popped.



Other oddities from todays The Market Ticker:

The Federal Housing Administration has been hit so hard by the mortgage crisis that for the first time, the agency's cash reserves will drop below the minimum level set by Congress, FHA officials said.

"It's very serious," FHA Commissioner David H. Stevens said in an interview. "There's nothing more serious that we're addressing right now, outside the housing crisis in general, than this issue."

reply to post by RoofMonkey


While I understand the news surrounding the housing market is bad indeed, in regards to the future of the industry, all I am saying is that it is rebounding, as of right now...

My first post in this thread noted that there would definately be another "kick in the keister."

Hunka reported accurate information. At least from where I stand. Right now is a good time to buy. The markets are making an upturn...

I can't tell you when to get out, though.

Originally posted by traderjack
...extended unemployment grew by a record number...

And yes starts up, but it's on apartment buildings not single family dwellings. Pendings are up because of the tax credits. And the 2.7% increase was a result of car sales and the increased cost of consumer goods not because folks are buying more. ...

Guaranteed the worst is yet to come, it might be a month, it might be 5 years but the Piper will come calling!

Sadly, yes.

It is a good thing that apt buildings are being built, because my kids will probably never be able to own a home. Or it will be years, decades, before they are able to.

Far, far gone are the American days of someone right out of high school landing a great job, with security and benefits, being able to afford a house and family. Much sadder still is the fact that many college graduates are now graduating with an amount of educational debt (owed to bank!) that will prevent them from buying a house for years. How does a $100, 000 college debt contribute to the economy the same as a $100, 000 mortgage debt...it can't.

Elect who you want for the next 20 (or more) years, but the fact is the self inflicted financial crisis draws a sharp line in time, every bit as much as the Great Depression, only without a wartime economy to bail us out.

The saddest part to all this, unless the US embarks on a radically new course, a great structural change, a new way of thinking about itself and its place in the world, we will miss the Great Opportunity this crisis presents. Instead, we are farting around with INCONSEQUENTIAL matters (death panels, ACORN, Obama as Hitler, evolution vs intelligent design, etc). The 21st Century comes calling, and we say, Just a minute while I finish my doodling.

In China, there are entire cities where each house is being readied to run on solar. Imagine, a communist state distributing energy at an individual level, while a capitalist one is still debating over how solar energy will be owned, by a corporation or an individual household. They are studying fuel cell technology, while Americans argue over Drill Baby Drill.

America should forget about recovering the past, that's a dead issue, but instead start running forward, just to keep up with the rest of the world. Our "recovery" can not look like any in the past, unless we want to fool ourselves and end up living in our Elysian Fields.

20th Century housing as an indicator of recovery? Try building houses (and communities) for the 21st century, then I'll be impressed.

I can't tell you when to get out, though.

reply to post by JayinAR


Getting in and out of a home isn't something you can do at the drop of a hat like you would sell a stock, at least not the average person. It's a buy and hold thing. So one would definitely want to get a handle on where prices will bottom before buying. It makes no sense to pay for a home now that will be worth 30% less in two years.

With the Alt A and Option ARM reset waves coming through 2010, there is no way that housing prices have bottomed. You can't have rising home prices while foreclosures are sky rocketing. It's basic supply and demand.

It may not be for long. "Expect millions of foreclosures" ahead despite loan-modification efforts, Treasury assistant secretary Michael Barr told a House committee last week.
"Adjustable-rate mortgages will trigger the next wave of defaults, which will make the subprime meltdown look like a walk in the park," said Rick Sharga, senior vice president at RealtyTrac, a foreclosure-listing firm in Irvine, Calif.

news.yahoo.com...

reply to post by desert


star from me friend, excellent post!!


nowthen, i find it interesting about an increase in housing STARTS. they arn't joking either, (true story) If i stand on my front porch i can show you at least 3 houses on just my block that are completely abandoned, and 4 more for sale, and have been for months. meanwhile outside my BACK porch they are surveying for an enormous 392 unit apartment complex.

reply to post by turbokid


Yeah... I agree. It's weird. While this whole bubble popping was going on, two brand spanking new houses were built just up the road. The families moved in, and within a month "For Sale" signs were out front.

BTFOOM.