U.S. housing starts, permits touch 9 month high

www.reuters.com...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Groundbreaking for U.S. homes and permits for future building scaled a nine-month high in August, and the number of people filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week, boosting chances of a robust economic recovery.

(visit the link for the full news article)



[edit on 17-9-2009 by HunkaHunka]

There ya go... more indicators of our recovery...

So how many people think that this is just a suckers rally still?

This isn't the rich making money off of a DOW near 10,000 this is new jobless claims down AND new housing starts!

Personally I find this to be good news... but then again I'm not a "prophet of doom" like a lot on this site except when weather is involved.

What are your thoughts on this?



(visit the link for the full news article)

[edit on 17-9-2009 by HunkaHunka]

Originally posted by HunkaHunka

There ya go... more indicators of our recovery...

So how many people think that this is just a suckers rally still?

This isn't the rich making money off of a DOW near 10,000 this is new jobless claims down AND new housing starts!

Personally I find this to be good news... but then again I'm not a "prophet of doom" like a lot on this site except when weather is involved.

What are your thoughts on this?


(visit the link for the full news article)

[edit on 17-9-2009 by HunkaHunka]

Housing starts are due to the fact that builders stopped building so they could unload their inventory. When you have no more inventory of course there will be highs when the building starts again.

The unemployment numbers have lowered due to companies streamlining and are at their lows for maintaining operations. Continued filing is up a good bit as the currently unemployed are still unable to find jobs.

This whole situation can be looked at as the glass being half full or half empty. But either way you look at it the glass has a hole and is leaking.

Its good news, I suppose, in the sense that these numbers suck less than those in recent months, but they still suck.

Jobless claims are still at 545,000 for the week and continuing claims actually rose by 129,000 to 6.23 million.

Housing starts are the best since November? That's a positive, I guess, but the overall economy was pretty much at rock bottom in November, so it can be taken both ways. I'd also point out that additional housing supply probably won't help housing prices anytime soon, so again, its a bit of a double-edged sword. Not only that, but foreclosure filings remain very near record levels with over 358,000 just in August.

So is it getting better? I'm skeptical. But it isn't getting significantly worse, I'll grant you that. Things seem to have leveled off for the time being.

[edit on 17-9-2009 by vor78]

Yeah it could be worse but 545 000 jobless claims when unemployment has already worked it's way up to about 10% scares me. Even when the economy appears to be great there are dangers, when it's the way it is now there are many more dangers. I don't think there is anything wrong with being cautious right now.

[edit on 17-9-2009 by Jacob08]

Originally posted by Jacob08
Yeah it could be worse but 545 000 jobless claims when unemployment has already worked it's way up to about 10% scares me.

Be prepared for a shocker see below..


Real Unemplloyment numbers

Real Unemployment Rate at 16.8% ADA Calls for Unemployment Benefits Extension WASHINGTON - September 4 - Americans for Democratic Action's National Director, Michael J. Wilson, made the following statement about today's unemployment numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: "The real unemployment rate released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics is 16.8%, 7 points higher than the officially reported rate. "President Obama's economic recovery plan is working but the real rate of unemployment underscores an urgent need to spur more hiring.

A Rust Belt remedy for the US housing glut: bulldozers

Article here

They've been bulldozing foreclosed and abandoned homes for over a year now.
This keeps prices stable and ensures new housing starts and permits.
It's called artificial manipulation of the markets.

It's also a huge waste of natural resources.
Perfectly good homes, scrapped and thrown to the dump.

reply to post by HunkaHunka


Well, it sure looks like someone decided to drink the kool-aide. Completely understandable since it tastes a whole lot better than the truth. But I mean come on, why let such a little insignificant thing like truth get in the way of mass manipulation.

For those that took the red pill please read below:

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 579,000. This is 2.7 percent (±1.2%) above the revised July rate of 564,000, but is 32.4 percent (±1.3%) below the August 2008 estimate of 857,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 462,000; this is 0.2 percent (±1.1%)* below the revised July figure of 463,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 98,000 in August. HOUSING STARTS Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 598,000. This is 1.5 percent (±7.9%)* above the revised July estimate of 589,000, but is 29.6 percent (±6.0%) below the August 2008 rate of 849,000. Single-family housing starts in August were at a rate of 479,000; this is 3.0 percent (±5.7%)* below the revised July figure of 494,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 115,000.

HOUSING COMPLETIONS
Privately-owned housing completions in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 760,000. This is 5.5 percent (±14.0%)* below the revised July estimate of 804,000 and is 25.3 percent (±9.6%) below the August 2008 rate of 1,018,000. Single-family housing completions in August were at a rate of 489,000; this is 1.6 percent (±12.7%)* below the revised July figure of 497,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 256,000.”

So where is the financing coming from?

Industrial production was down 10.7 percent, which broke out as consumer goods down 4.1 percent while business equipment just plain sucked: down 14.7 percent while construction was down 18.5 percent. In short, nothing was up.

Capacity utilization was down in every category except utilities, which was up 1.8 percent, but overall, capacity was down one-half of one percent. I don’t pay too much attention to the utilities utilization, since that could be viewed more a population-driven number than an economic activity number, know what I mean?

Despite the deterioration in the fundamentals, the degree of excess to the upside seems unabated. Robin Landry’s latest note to colleagues in the investment profession seems on point:

“Well it finally happened. We reached my target of 9700. As I have said over the last 6 months, My primary count has been that this rally was a wave 4 that would peak around 9700+ around a cluster of smaller degree wave 4’s. I also have said that if this area was exceeded by a significant amount, with an increase in momentum and volume, then my alternate count ( that the March low was the end of Wave 1 and the rally since then a Wave 2) would become my preferred count. I expect the next few days will give me the answer. If we exceed the 9800-9900 range over the next few days then wave 2 is in fact the preferred count, and the next target for the Dow is 10,300-10,500. The advance decline ratio today was a little better than it was earlier this month but has a long way to go to beat the kick off from the March low. A couple of my indicators say it will go higher, but a lot of negative divergences are apparent in others. I want make something very clear, The higher this rally goes, the more damage will be done when the next decline begins. With Bernanke saying the recession is likely over and Warren Buffett saying the worst is behind us, they only raise the confidence I have that the worst is yet to come. It always amazes me that people who didn’t warn of the coming decline, and suffered themselves, besides causing countless others to lose their life savings, are still being listened to, while those who warned that it was coming, even after it happened, are still regarded as crazy coots. That is the way the market works. My goal is to try to help those I come in contact understand that the worst is yet to come, and hopefully help them to avoid as much of the decline as possible. If the data causes me to change to the alternate count I will send out another update as the market approaches the next target of 10,300-10,500. As always, questions and comments are welcome. I will answer as time allows."

Now let's review, you're basically stating that since a contrived stock market, filled with billions upon billions of govt bail out money being transferred back and forth between a few elitists hands, has managed to raise the average close to 10,000, that we're supposed to believe that this is to be the universal gauge that the recession is over?


Unfortunately my friend you have now reached a crossroads in your life and you are about to make the most important choice in your life. Here it is:

1. You can continue to keep your head buried in the sand, continue to listen to corporate lackeys who don't care about the American people and who are stealing our wealth right in front of our eyes, and in the meantime continue to watch American Idol and So You think You can Dance.

or

2. You can wake the # up, prepare yourself for the inevitable collapse of the American economy and eventual revolution that is coming soon to a theater near you.

WAKE UP!

I'll ask the same question that George Ure asked over at Urban Survival:

So where is the financing coming from?

Link

You have a tax credit of $8000 for first time buyers sapping the "on the fence" buyers to go ahead and commit to taking on the debt.

Cash for Clunkers sucked the remaining buyers into fresh brand spanking new auto loans, and now dealers are now fearing a gaping chasm devoid of customers.

What will be the end effect for housing?

Time will tell.

Sure wishful thinking on everyones part.

We still haven't hit the commercial market crash. That one is comming soon.

I'm not saying this with any type of authority on the subject but one reason the jobless claims could be seen to go down is because unemployment runs out after a while.

It could be that the earlier claimants have run through their unemployment and it's over.

reply to post by HunkaHunka

Please share your sunny optimism with those of us who actually used to work in the new construction markets in Michigan and Ohio.

Numbers are easily manipulated. If you want the real story, just walk the streets along the rusty trail from Detroit to Buffalo.

Let's see how this tune changes at the end of Fiscal year 2009 which ends Sept. 30.


[edit on 17-9-2009 by jibeho]

What's REALLY scary is, that 16.8% unemployed statistic that they threw out there is probably more like 20%.....that's getting damn close to Depression-era numbers. But yeah, everything is just wonderful right now.

The supposedly "good" housing market news is a bunch of bunk. This isn't a little recession, and things are not going to get better as quickly as you'd like to believe Hunka. We have yet to see a complete end to the foreclosures, and as someone pointed out previously, we have yet to see the commercial real estate market burst.....THAT is going to be ugly!!

Believe whatcha want, but this ride isn't over yet.

Originally posted by jibeho
reply to post by HunkaHunka

 

Please share your sunny optimism with those of us who actually used to work in the new construction markets in Michigan and Ohio.

Numbers are easily manipulated. If you want the real story, just walk the streets along the rusty trail from Detroit to Buffalo.

Let's see how this tune changes at the end of Fiscal year 2009 which ends Sept. 30.


[edit on 17-9-2009 by jibeho]

The only reason why anyone was ever in detroit to begin with was the car economy...

There is a reason you can hardly find a uhaul going south.. because since 2003 they have all been headed south.... not many coming back....


I guess there are just tons of people who want the economy to go to hell...

reply to post by HunkaHunka


I live just outside of Detroit, and let me tell you....I went south, and then I went west, and now i'm back in Detroit. "Why?" you may ask? Because things are CRAP all over, there are very few good jobs left right now. When I was in Phoenix and I realized that I was going to end up working at a fast food chain or something just to get by, I decided to get on a plane and come back home.
Things are getting bad all over, and no none of us WANT this to happen, but to deny what is quite obviously happening to our country is ultimately pretty pointless. Better to see it for what it is and take it a day at a time.

Yup, things are looking rosy all over...

July 2009 Unemployment for some Metropolitan Areas:

El Centro, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area - 30.2%
Yuma, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area - 26.2%
Dayton, OH Metropolitan Statistical Area - 12.2%
Burlington, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area - 12.6%
Spartanburg, SC Metropolitan Statistical Area - 12.7%
Flint, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area - 17.6%
Wichita, KS Metropolitan Statistical Area - 9.9%
Mobile, AL Metropolitan Statistical Area - 10.8%

www.bls.gov...

[edit on 17-9-2009 by RoofMonkey]

Originally posted by Shadowflux
I'm not saying this with any type of authority on the subject but one reason the jobless claims could be seen to go down is because unemployment runs out after a while.

It could be that the earlier claimants have run through their unemployment and it's over.

This is my fear. I didn't really consider what the harbinger of it would be, but that makes sense. If we see a catastrophic drop in unemployment figures but NOT a corresponding rise in job growth, that will be the indicator that all hell is about to break loose. Tent cities will flourish as homelessness rises. Will unemployment sink the economy?

Originally posted by HunkaHunka

Originally posted by jibeho
reply to post by HunkaHunka

 

Please share your sunny optimism with those of us who actually used to work in the new construction markets in Michigan and Ohio.

Numbers are easily manipulated. If you want the real story, just walk the streets along the rusty trail from Detroit to Buffalo.

Let's see how this tune changes at the end of Fiscal year 2009 which ends Sept. 30.


[edit on 17-9-2009 by jibeho]

The only reason why anyone was ever in detroit to begin with was the car economy...

There is a reason you can hardly find a uhaul going south.. because since 2003 they have all been headed south.... not many coming back....


I guess there are just tons of people who want the economy to go to hell...

So, these people who pick up an move from Detroit and places in between to seek jobs want the economy to go to hell?? Blame the people? Since you have all the answers, who can my parents blame for their retirement savings losing half of its value?

I don't know what planet you're on. Things aren't so rosy in the South either. I'll use Charlotte NC as an example of a once booming banking town. Charlotte unemployment as of 7/2009 was 12.4%. When I moved from Charlotte in 2004 back to Ohio it was hovering around 6%.

How much of the housing numbers are government subsidized housing?

stats don't mean anything nowadays unless they are defined and explained. America is shedding jobs like crazy. Who's going to buy all these new homes? We can't even sell the ones we have. Plus I know for a fact in my neighborhood there are tons of ARMS going to reset in 2010.

reply to post by jibeho


Yessir, I agree! The only reason that anybody ever left Detroit was because the auto industry is TANKING, and nearly EVERYTHING here is based around the auto industry. If the auto workers aren't making money, nobody is spending money on lunch at the fast food joint up the road, or the restaurant around the corner, or at the local dive bar, or even at the bowling alley. I think you get my point, the auto industry is what was driving Michigan's economy, but now there is almost nothing save for the health industry in Detroit.
Hunka, you can't just expect people to stick around and suffer if they have some kind of an out, that is completely unreasonable....ESPECIALLY if they are trying to support a family. I mean I guess we could just sit in our houses and all huddle around trying to pass the time, but if you're not making money than why stay? This is why Detroit's economy is so stagnant right now.

The one bright spot that I DO see for Detroit is the film school/movie studio going up here, as Michigan is offering bigtime incentives to those who decide to shoot movies here. Maybe Detroit will become a little Hollywood of sorts, that would be nice.