Hurricane prediction

Ok so I live in an area that occasionaly gets hit by hurricanes. Because we don't get hit that often people (including our government) arn't ussually ready, though I hope people have learned thier lesson (I know they havn't) anyways, I am curious if there are any resources available to help anticipate the path of hurricanes.

The huricane currently causing us some issues is named bill, and is just coming up on bermuda. Now I live in Nova Scotia, Canada and this dosn't seem to intimidating however I am hearing alot of "get ready geet ready it's gonna be bad".

First of all I am wondering if there is anything that I can find on line that predicts the path of hurricanes and could possably give some truth to what I am hearing.

Also I would like some advice from those of you that deal with hurricanes or tornados on a unfoutenatly frequent basis.

I don't live on a flood plain but I do feel that my basement flooding is a real possibility. I also don't have any large trees on my property but I am going to re-evaluate the neighbours though.

Anything would be great guys.
TSG

Yes.

Type in NOAA and follow directions.

reply to post by The_Smokeing_Gun


I live on the Gulf Coast, and have been through many Hurricanes, and have never evacuated. Here are some good sites:

Stormpulse

Stormpulse is a good one. You can turn on the predicted tracks from the National Hurricane Center, as well as radar, etc.

NHC

National Hurricane Center

NDBC

National Data Buoy Center is pretty cool. Real time data from buoys in the hurricanes path (actually from all over)

Intellicast

Intellicast active hurricanes

reply to post by The_Smokeing_Gun


Make sure you have the following:

Fresh water - as much as you can store
Ice - keep it as long as you can
Food - food that won't spoil
Generator and fuel - make sure you get PLENTY of fuel before hand
Tarps - never know what you may have to cover on your roof
Batteries - as many as you can afford
Flashlights - I use MAG Lites because they are durable and bright
Chainsaws - don't forget the special 2 cycle oil and chain oil
Tape - I use military grade 100MPH tape
Various tools
Portable AC Unit
Portable Coleman cooking stove with fuel
Crank up emergency radio with NOAA weather on it

There are probably some that I am missing, but you get the idea

www.stormpulse.com... is all you need. What an amazing site. You can click on the points in the track and pull up predicted details and a nice visual when compared to the national hurricane center / noaa.

It looks like it will hit your area as a category 1 or 2. Remember hurricane juan that caused havoc. Assume it will be that bad and plan for it, though it likely won't be that bad. I have a feeling it will lose steam shortly after cape cod.

Stormpulse is kewl and all but how accurate is it? did anyone else notice that the map dosn't match up with the points that actually mark the places? for example my city (Halifax) on the Storm pulse map is located in the atlantic ocean, which I insure u is far from the truth.

reply to post by The_Smokeing_Gun


It is my understanding that Stormpulse gets it's Hurricane tracking information from the NHC.

When you say occasionally, how often is that?

I live in Texas and hurricanes seem to love us.

Like Desertdreamer, I too live on the Gulf Coast, and have been through several hurricanes.

Aside from the advice Desertdreamer gave you, I'd just like to add that you will want to tie down or secure items that can blow around and into your vehicles or homes.

If you want to get an idea of what would blow around, I would suggest getting on a straightway, hauling ass up to 100 miles per hour, and sticking your head out the window.

Then ask yourself if the items in and around your house will be able to withstand that particular level of wind.

Not that I would suggest anyone doing anything so stupid as to actually break the law, but that will make the point like no other.

Excellent advice, you have to love the 100MPH test!

[edit on 20-8-2009 by desertdreamer]

The last huricane we had was Juan n I think 2003 (correct me If I am wrong) the one befor that was the perfect storm one but I don't even think I was born when that happened. we also had a one tornado when I was in grade 5 and I recall one micro burst a couple years ago.

Wunderground will give you a lot of information on Bill, including surge, wave heights, wind pattern, etc. If you click on that link, and then click on Wundermap, that gives you an interactive experience where you can utilize a bunch of wx tools to look at the effects and track probability of the hurricane.

I have two good friends that live in your area. You all had a hell of a time last year, but you made it through. Good think you're mostly rock. You get left out of the equation frequently, because once the extratropical stom has left the U.S., nobody talks about it any more. I feel your pain.

The current track of probability takes Bill out to sea, but where? The GFDL model takes it right over you (click on FWD on the right side to put the animation in motion).

The GFDL -- one of may computer models -- puts Bill atop you with 992 mb. That's still a fearsome wind, my friend.

thanks for speaking up, so we know to watch and fret about you. If you are on elevation and safe from sea surge, then your primary concern might be the integrity of your home, and how well it might fare. Having been through a hurricane in which the roof was lost (2002), I can tell you that's a harrowing experience. However, if the sea is not a factor, it's the aftermath where a prepared person shines. Now is the time to get your systems and strategy in order.

Consider being without power for two weeks or more. What should you do? Water is, of course, a vital consideration. Food, less so, but still important. Warmth. For myself, coffee is mandatory. I must have coffee. think about what you absolutely NEED and get more of it, whatever it is.

Keep in touch with us, okay? U2U me if I can help in any way. This island is only just getting put back together after Paloma kicked out butts last November, so I can perhaps help with some things.

Be safe

I have been through:

Hurricane Alicia
Tropical Storm Allison
Tropical Storm Claudette
Hurricane Rita
Hurricane Humberto
Hurricane Ike

And yes, please let us know if we can do anything. Good Luck!

[edit on 20-8-2009 by desertdreamer]

Do the early storms of the season ussually reveal a trend for the season? should I expect an unusual rise n storms this year?

reply to post by The_Smokeing_Gun


For your area I would think not. For us here on the Gulf Coast, Hurricane season is a time to be wary of what is out there, but to be honest with you, I don't give it much thought until it gets around Cuba and into the Gulf. The Hurricane seasons for the past couple of years have not been very predictable, so I am not sure you could really trend it.


[edit on 20-8-2009 by desertdreamer]

Hey guys just a little update.

The latest orojections put hurricane bill narrowly missing my city. I will remain prepared because the minute i lay my guard down is when I am gonna get bitten in the butt.

reply to post by The_Smokeing_Gun


When you say narrowly miss....by how much? If you will be on the right hand side of the storm (the east side0, that is the dirty side of the storm with some of the worst winds and flooding. Even if you don't take a direct "eye wall" hit, you will still feel the effects. Being on the west side of the storm, or the left would be best.

Well I checked storm Pulse and it is predicting today that Bill is gonna hit us again, and last night it went from a cat1 to a cat2 again. I am on the left side of the eye wall though if it keeps with it's course change, I am close enought to the eye that that could change very quickly.

So a bit of an update

It's getting a bit windier now. there is a bit of a storm surge and most of the beaches are closed.

I spent the morning strapping down eveything that lives down stairs and anything I couldn't strap down I put in a confined space under the deck. We can't afford the ply wood to board up the windows so what I have done is I have tirned the living space in my basement into my HQ. It only has one window. I used the gabarge cans to kind protect them from debris. I also strapped the garbage cans to the bars on the windows (the kind to keep looters out).

I am prety confident that I am above the storm surge, it's just the run off from the large hill I live at the bottom off. however we do have a sub pump, with an emergency power supply.

Thanks for the how water tank trick. Thats a good one especially in my case because we have two hot water tanks (Yay for infloor heating) so I will keep that in mind.

Thanks again guys

Can I get some suggestions on a to do list for final prep. things like buttoning up, filling all available containers with water getting gas that kinda stuff.