The 1859 super solar storm

reply to post by Viral

Back in 1859, one can assume that the atmosphere wasn't as polluted, and CFC's hadn't torn holes in the ozone layer. I wonder if this would be a problem during a solar storm if it were to happen today?

I'm open to correction here, but I don't think the ozone layer offers any protection from solar storms or CMEs...they deplete ozone.

So if this thing hit sometime soon and fries the electrical grid, how long can one expect power to be gone?
Does it melt the grind completly so that it has to be replaced or does it only turn of power for a short period of time ?

Thought i'd just throw this in there...

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[edit on Sun Jul 5 2009 by Jbird]

Originally posted by Theomi
So if this thing hit sometime soon and fries the electrical grid, how long can one expect power to be gone?
Does it melt the grind completly so that it has to be replaced or does it only turn of power for a short period of time ?

I work in the electrical industry, High voltage to be exact, I have assembled transformers for most major utilities here in the US and provide a service of PMs. I can tell you it takes about 30 to 40 days to build a large transformer. Although a generation station or boosting station may have a spare, it would still be difficult to get the lights back on in less than a few weeks. I also know the power companies are aware of this potential problem, so a effort will be attempted to have an outtage prior to an event. Yes something of a C class or greater Could melt a transformer internally, so what some don't understand is this IS a serious concern.

Can u gimme more details????

Originally posted by Lil Drummerboy

Originally posted by Theomi
So if this thing hit sometime soon and fries the electrical grid, how long can one expect power to be gone?
Does it melt the grind completly so that it has to be replaced or does it only turn of power for a short period of time ?

I work in the electrical industry, High voltage to be exact, I have assembled transformers for most major utilities here in the US and provide a service of PMs. I can tell you it takes about 30 to 40 days to build a large transformer. Although a generation station or boosting station may have a spare, it would still be difficult to get the lights back on in less than a few weeks. I also know the power companies are aware of this potential problem, so a effort will be attempted to have an outtage prior to an event. Yes something of a C class or greater Could melt a transformer internally, so what some don't understand is this IS a serious concern.

Okay thats all i need to know...
Time to stock up on canddles and firewood

reply to post by Lil Drummerboy

I also know the power companies are aware of this potential problem, so a effort will be attempted to have an outtage prior to an event. Yes something of a C class or greater Could melt a transformer internally, so what some don't understand is this IS a serious concern.

This is what happened to a transformer at Hydro Quebec and PSE&G in the '89 storm mentioned by Chad...

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/ea8b48c7d4cf.gif[/atsimg]

The cost to PSE&G for replacing this transformer was on the order of several million U.S. dollars. The cost of replacement energy during the time the transformer was taken out of service was about $400,000 a day for 6 weeks (3), or approximately ~16.8 million dollars. The net cost for PSE&G was therefore over 20 million. Other companies across the continent also experienced significant anomalies, but we have concentrated on these two companies since they were on the higher end of costly effects for this event.

Link

Technology has moved on since and we are far better placed to avoid significant negative effects to the infrastructure. As usual, the more advanced areas of the world will be prepared whilst poorer nations will struggle....

Thanks for the good information. I like the map that is included to show where the grid could be affected the most.

Let's hope that something like this does not happen in the colder months. If you have an electric furnace and the power goes out for weeks or so, people would freeze to death. Candles can give light, you can always stock up on canned goods and bottles water, but how can you heat your home if you don't have a wood stove or fireplace etc.? That is scary. I have a fireplace, generator, and solar panels for situations like that.

I read a good article on this topic a while back, and did some digging to find it.

www.dailymail.co.uk...

At present NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) is the most important indicator of incoming space weather. It can give 15 to 45 minutes warning of geomagnetic storms and power companies need 15 minutes to prepare systems for a critical event.

This would have a knock on effect on many of the systems that support our lives, including water and sewage treatment, medicine cooling, supermarket delivery, power station controls and financial markets.

A truly big one would be a crushing blow. It is not that the technology would disappear, but the flow of materials would cease causing an ever increasing time frame of getting systems back up.

This article says a transformer can take up to a year to get put into service; although, I did read in a previous post someone say something to the tune of 40 days. Even 40 days for one, when you think about the magnitude of, "the big one," How many transformers would be needed? Obviously the most vital areas would be worked on first, but, from my understanding if it were a total meltdown of our grids, its looking like we would live in a post-apocolyptic world for a year or more.

reply to post by Kandinsky

Nice Pic, I have seen similar on internal inspections. as for those whom want to know what to have for preparedness. Yeah lets hope it won't happen in the winter. I have a wood stove and a back up source for water. and the food is another issue. unless you were stocked up you would be S.O.L. for myself Ive stocked up for a year for my whole family. this may sound like allot but think about it. If you loose power, there are allot of issues that trickle down from there. Everybody starts to head to the store, panic, look at Katrina. NO Thanks. and besides we rotate our stock(food) so it is always good to go. call us crazy, I am ok with that, this is not fearmongering, just thinking ahead. There has been just too much written and too much coincidence in current events to simply be ignorant.

Please stop this July 7th nonsense. The "Knowing" DVD/Blu-ray is coming out on July 7th. The movie is about a solar flare that destroys the Earth and was warned of by aliens in an encoded document. Sound familiar? You are arguing that real aliens just happened to warn of a real solar flare with a symbolic crop circle, and this event just happens to be on the same date as the release of a movie about about the exact same thing.

Originally posted by andrewh7
Please stop this July 7th nonsense. The "Knowing" DVD/Blu-ray is coming out on July 7th. The movie is about a solar flare that destroys the Earth and was warned of by aliens in an encoded document. Sound familiar? You are arguing that real aliens just happened to warn of a real solar flare with a symbolic crop circle, and this event just happens to be on the same date as the release of a movie about about the exact same thing.

Hey guess what, maybe the release of this movie could so be another way the black government, aliens, NWO I dunno whoever you wanna call them, is trying to warn us. There were threads about how one tv show was portraying the attack on 9/11 on the twin towers before the actual event.

Originally posted by balon0

Originally posted by andrewh7
Please stop this July 7th nonsense. The "Knowing" DVD/Blu-ray is coming out on July 7th. The movie is about a solar flare that destroys the Earth and was warned of by aliens in an encoded document. Sound familiar? You are arguing that real aliens just happened to warn of a real solar flare with a symbolic crop circle, and this event just happens to be on the same date as the release of a movie about about the exact same thing.

Hey guess what, maybe the release of this movie could so be another way the black government, aliens, NWO I dunno whoever you wanna call them, is trying to warn us. There were threads about how one tv show was portraying the attack on 9/11 on the twin towers before the actual event.

the movie long kiss goodnight mentioned flying a plane into a building, and that was made a few years before.

reply to post by IapetusBlu


I'm not 100% but I think the latest activity is quite a lot smaller then the activity viewed in 1859.

As mentioned, the largest CME Carrington viewed was twice as bright as the sun and was viewable from earth.

Originally posted by Lorrie
Let's hope that something like this does not happen in the colder months. If you have an electric furnace and the power goes out for weeks or so, people would freeze to death. Candles can give light, you can always stock up on canned goods and bottles water, but how can you heat your home if you don't have a wood stove or fireplace etc.? That is scary. I have a fireplace, generator, and solar panels for situations like that.

hi Lorrie, Your point is important to discuss, and I'd like to offer one suggestion to people who might find themselves in that predicament. Buy high quality sleeping bags suitable for 0 degrees and below for everyone in the family.

My husband and did that when we had a severe ice storm last winter which knocked out much of our city's electricity. Some of our coworkers were without electricity in bitterly cold weather for almost 2 weeks.

Anyway, these sleeping bags are good to have not only for a potential power outage during cold weather, but they're also good to carry with you in your car if you have to be driving in severe weather. If you were to get stuck in severe weather and have to wait for AAA or another towing service during a bad storm, you could be in for a long wait, and if there was no place within walking distance to take shelter, a sleeping bag to crawl into would come in handy.

Here's a sleeping bag buyer's guide from Dicks that can help you figure out what kind of sleeping bag to purchase: "How To Buy A Sleeping Bag"...SOURCE: Dick's Sporting Goods

We got mummy bags, and we tried them out this winter. They were very warm and cozy. Also, everyone should also have a good set of thermal underwear.

I just got back from Fairbanks, Alaska where Auroras are visible 210 days a year.

Aurora forecast site.

Additional Forecaster comments: The period June 29 - July 10 should be evenly quiet.

I don't know where the prediction for July 7th came from but it is obviously unreliable and a bad source. It has been quiet for months.

reply to post by Blaine91555


It came from the supposed interpretation of a couple of recent crop circles.

So yes, the reliability is questionable.

Good link too BTW.

My son is flying home on the 9th, what do you think? I am very worried.

reply to post by antar


Airlines will alter course and altitude if there is any sign of interference so there is little chance of the plane being affected.

The plane will also need to be near the polar regions as well, this is the area where radiation and the like will likely get through.