How bad is the economy? Tell us your projection of the economy in the next 2 years.

I hear a lot of doom and gloom from MSM, ats, various news websites about economic collapse and our rights being taken away. I see films like zeitgeist addendum and watch videos from ron paul saying, "our monetary system is doomed to fail". I see unemployment rising, i see my friends getting laid off. In the town i live in half of the strip malls are out of business and empty. What is going on?

I'm a 24 year old college student studying web development. My hours were just cut drasticly at my work. Reason being the company cant afford to give anyone hours. I and 8 other people in my department went from 30+ hours a week to 4 to 8 hours a week, doesnt seem right. I also just applied at lowes for a part time cashier position, when i walked in the cashier lady said, "hun we got 2500 aplications for this position, sorry sweety".

so ill get to it, what im asking everyone is:

What is your projection of the economy for the next 2 years?

Tell a recession story if you have one, funny or not.

Two years? What economy?

I think we'll have communities of people working to get by on a fairly simplistic lifestyle. I think the global economy is shot, and won't last another 12 months. From here, it's back to basics.

Hopefully the internet will be working to some extent, and we can become a global community of sort. Maybe this is a little further off, and a lot of people would remark this is nothing more than fantasy. Well, I can dream...

reply to post by truthwillneverberevealed


My projection is not good, so I do not know if you want to hear my opinion. This is what I will think will happen, but you have to watch this film first (you are 24 years old, maybe you haven't seen it).

www.imdb.com...

Here is part 1 of 12:

www.youtube.com...

I watched this film again recently and it gave me chills. In part because this is what we all will soon be experiencing, but more because of Mel Gibson's character, how adapted and normalized he is to the insanity around him.

What's in store for us/Spoilers: no food (at least production is completely lost...dog food anyone?), crossbows and arrows (without manufacturing, guns and bullets are a luxury), and, yes, gasoline (if you have some, YOU become the prey).


[edit on 6-3-2009 by pluckynoonez]

Originally posted by pluckynoonez
reply to post by truthwillneverberevealed

 

My projection is not good, so I do not know if you want to hear my opinion. This is what I will think will happen, but you have to watch this film first (you are 24 years old, maybe you haven't seen it).

www.imdb.com...

Here is part 1 of 12:

www.youtube.com...

I watched this film again recently and it gave me chills. In part because this is what we all will soon be experiencing, but more because of Mel Gibson's character, how adapted and normalized he is to the insanity around him.

What's in store for us/Spoilers: no food (at least production is completely lost...dog food anyone?), crossbows and arrows (without manufacturing, guns and bullets are a luxury), and, yes, gasoline (if you have some, YOU become the prey).


[edit on 6-3-2009 by pluckynoonez]

Hahaha when i clicked on the link and saw mad max i started laughing histericly. oh geez, well if it does turn out like that i got a dog and a bow, so ill turn out ok right?

[edit on 6-3-2009 by truthwillneverberevealed]

Yeah. You should be. I believe it will all hit the fan soon. Total wasteland as depicted in that film (with the image of him driving away at 7:27 being most disturbing/desolate).

Karl Denninger (who ran "tinfoilers" out of his forum a year ago) is now sounding like a tinfoiler, saying Mad Max scenerio is all but certain.

www.tickerforum.org...

His name is "Genesis" on the forum, and he is projecting this future for us. So, yeah, hone you crossbow skills, make your dog jumpy at the smallest sound....

Originally posted by truthwillneverberevealed

Hahaha when i clicked on the link and saw mad max i started laughing histericly. oh geez, well if it does turn out like that i got a dog and a bow, so ill turn out ok right?

[edit on 6-3-2009 by pluckynoonez]

That depends on whether or not we decide to work towards abundance.

If we do not...? Rampant poverty, the collapse, through hyper inflation, of the US Dollar, FEMA camps and death and other ugliness. And the NAU trying to form, and the NWO taking over.

If we do...? Well... In two years we could be a long way upon the path of abundance.

(Book linked FREE in sig.)

[edit on 3/6/2009 by Amaterasu]

This is me only dreaming a dream that I wish would come true. Before the year is up people are going to be so mad that they finally get up from their couch, turn off American Idol and head to Washington D.C along with the other 302,000,000 million Americans and we become American Idols. They tell every politician to get the hell out of the White House, the Capital building and any other place they can be found. They're going to kick them all out and we'll have another election. The " Fair Tax will be put into place and tax cuts will dominate our economy. Companies and Corporations will thrive again and the American Dream will be saved for our kids and Grand kids.

Of course it's just my dream so in reality people will be on their couches still watching American Idol. The Government will continue to grow and we will have a 10 trillion dollar budget. By the the time it's fully grown parents and their children will have to work a job just to make it by. The ones who don't work will be so dependent on the massive government that they are doomed to nothing but begging. People who thought about starting a business has moved out of the country because they don't want the Government running their business. Jobs are gone and people are nothing more than a dependent. The American dream is lost and America is no more.

Originally posted by Solarskye
This is me only dreaming a dream that I wish would come true. Before the year is up people are going to be so mad that they finally get up from their couch, turn off American Idol and head to Washington D.C along with the other 302,000,000 million Americans and we become American Idols. They tell every politician to get the hell out of the White House, the Capital building and any other place they can be found. They're going to kick them all out and we'll have another election. The " Fair Tax will be put into place and tax cuts will dominate our economy. Companies and Corporations will thrive again and the American Dream will be saved for our kids and Grand kids.

Of course it's just my dream so in reality people will be on their couches still watching American Idol. The Government will continue to grow and we will have a 10 trillion dollar budget. By the the time it's fully grown parents and their children will have to work a job just to make it by. The ones who don't work will be so dependent on the massive government that they are doomed to nothing but begging. People who thought about starting a business has moved out of the country because they don't want the Government running their business. Jobs are gone and people are nothing more than a dependent. The American dream is lost and America is no more.

ya it seems like the goverment getting larger is almost inevitable at this point. NWO maybe to? Ah to much to think about sometimes. I guess we will wait and see

We will bottom out at the end of the year and see a little growth in 2010. we will see significant growth in 2011. Business is already way better for me then it was last year at this time.

Originally posted by unityemissions
Two years? What economy?

I think we'll have communities of people working to get by on a fairly simplistic lifestyle. I think the global economy is shot, and won't last another 12 months. From here, it's back to basics.

Hopefully the internet will be working to some extent, and we can become a global community of sort. Maybe this is a little further off, and a lot of people would remark this is nothing more than fantasy. Well, I can dream...

Imagine what people were thinking during the great depression. Hell they were even killing themselves. I dont think we are anywhere near those levels. Doom and Gloom all over the media, in the papers, and all over the internet has made it alot worse then this ever should have been. Hopefully consumer confidence can be returned. If that happens then we will start to see improvement. If it doesnt, we are screwed.

Honestly, what I've come to believe is that we are on a course to repeat the Great Depression and we're pretty close to the same timeline, just a few things different this time.

After the crash in 1929, the economy was bad until the latter part of 1930 until the major programs got implemented and started having their effect. 1931 was a slight recovery, and continued until late 1932, when it started going down worse than the 1929 crash (this was where the 25% unemployment came).

The massive civil unrest that was caused by the deflationary pressures and high unemployment spurred FDR to make the second New Deal and that started a recovery until 1937 when he tried to be fiscally responsible and cut spending. This caused another "mini-depression" that was broken out of by the ramp up towards WWII production.

With that quick history in mind, I think we are currently in 1930. The outgoing president submitted a plan to shore up the banks, and the new president was elected on promises of change and of restoring the economy when it became a problem. Some may be thinking of the current Bush transition to Obama, but this was the case in 1929-1930 with the transition from Hoover to FDR.

I know that isn't 2 years, but I don't feel that its a good enough time period. I didn't want to say things will be better than now without explaining my line of thought. I like my buns lightly toasted, not charcoaled like it would be if I were to have left my thougts at just two years.

Short Version: In two years things will feel and maybe even be better, but we'll be heading back down soon enough to even worse times.

reply to post by Solarskye


The "government bubble" will burst before it ever gets like that. Unless they some how come up with something worth more than the current paper we have. There isn't enough gold to go around, and in the end people aren't going to want gold or any metals they are going to want real items that are useful in their daily lives.

Once America goes bust the rest of the world is right behind it that is why China is trying to shore up it's own economy. Thing is for China is that their communist system would have long since failed if it wasn't for their major exports.

As Plucky stated we are heading for a Mad Max scenario. After economic collapse comes political collapse. People at that point will get a taste of real freedom and even though lives will be simple, the quality will be much, much better. Eventually a new government will form, but it will be by the will of the people.

Time frame for that happening? A decade maybe two, maybe three, 10? Who knows, but everyone that I talk too are sick of the government and I feel that once it is gone it won't be coming back for awhile.



edit - grammar

[edit on 6-3-2009 by Hastobemoretolife]

So this is what I'm thinking...

Below is the one-year trend for the S&P and DOW. Nothing is slowing it down. It would take some major bubble to make this trend level off, and another bubble to make it rise again.



Real estate is the root of the problem, we hear this time and again from economic analysts. Before the early indicators above level off, real estate (real property) values need to complete disinflation (prices stop falling). For real estate prices to be at an index level of 100, they need to be at 1997-1999 levels, but as prices seek equilibrium they will probably over correct. What this chart doesn't show is commercial/industrial real estate, much of which is vacant and much more will become vacant over the next few months to years. So this disinflation should continue for many months. On average, the correct home price should be 40-50% of peak (2006) value based on the Case-Shiller index.



If over-inflated real estate values precede values of corporate equity shares, equity shares are also over-inflated, and as prices seek equilibrium, those values will over-correct (drop below real value before they rise).



This month the rate of decline is currently 6%/month. This year the rate of decline is 9% per month.

If we project out a 9% rate of contraction for the DOW, the end of month close for DOW in 2009 looks like this:
March 6,427 (December 1996 values)
April 5,849
May 5,322
June 4,843
July 4,407 (May 1995 values)
August 4,011
September 3,650
October 3,321
November 3,022
December 2,750 (December 1990 values - too far?)

We've been getting bad news since about September. Since then, the average monthly rate of contraction is 7% which is a bit more optimistic than 9%. I would expect we will continue to see bad news regarding banks and commercial real estate through the end of this year. In that case the end of month close for DOW in 2009 looks like this:

March 6,569 (March 1997 values)
April 6,109
May 5,681
June 5,283
July 4,914 (October 1995 values)
August 4,570
September 4,250
October 3,952
November 3,676
December 3,418 (March 1993 levels)

Today the DOW closed 6,626, a decline of 52% from the October 2007 close of 13,930. By the end of the year with a 7% rate of contraction, the DOW in December should be 55% of the value it is today unless the bad news stops, and the bargain hunters start buying. Right now you can start some bargain hunting, but only if you want to risk the possibility of losing half your money at this rate of contraction.



[edit on 6-3-2009 by Dbriefed]

I think most countries that didn't sell their childrens future to bailout the banking industry and expand government will be ok. However since most of these countries weren't exactly rich to begin with it will still mean a drastic decline in the amount of wealthy people. I can see much of the 1st world's middle class ceasing to exist.

Hate to be a downer Plucky, but the Mad Max scenario in America could happen in far less than two years.

In two years...well they do say a picture is worth a 1000 words.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/21f8374f973d.jpg[/atsimg]

Global breakdown in the economy becoming apparent this summer that the system is not sustainable. By the end of the year options will be on the table. I have a feeling common sense will prevail and be a mix of socialistic concepts of making sure everyone is clothed, and fed, coupled with individual rights to keep what they earn will find a balance in the new system.

reply to post by Ahabstar


Haha yes they do indeed, some countries maybe closer to mad max than they think but as soon as some contries fall others will rise up to the global demand for items/food. it may take a few wealthy countries to fall in order for this to work but it would take more than a depression before we see mad max on a global scale.

OP, I am sorry you are very sweet however the time to question the economy is past. The time to take inventory of those around you that matter most to you and how you see yourself alighned with them when TSHTF. You are young, be healthy, as healthy as you can be physically, mentally and spiritually.

Know that the entire Universe is alive and the time has come for many changes with in our living dimension.

The age of self transformation is here. To be honest I do not know if man will survive this, at this point it is by a small percentage. This will not be the first time. Let go of the past, forget about the future and just be here now as intensely as possible. But while doing this remain alert aware awake and centered, grounded.

If you go deeply into any technique you choose for self awareness that would serve you better than freaking over the fact you are finding it hard to get work. Work on yourself. Meditate.

Get a job at a local grower, start farming, grow your own. Go to your Parents or Grandparents, see if they would like to start a farm, with you running it.

Here is a more detailed chart, it's easier to see the earlier half of this century. This is only the Dow jones industrial, but we have used it as a refrence for how the economy is doing for so long that it is a reference.

stockcharts.com...

It's to late for a bounceback. Businesses are already closing, people are already losing their jobs, and that means the REAL economy is already starting to feel the effects of what the Dow has already predicted. Things are usually destroyed rather quickly, and rebuilding them always takes time.

If there is a reality check on exactly how much in debt everyone is, and how worthless it all really is, then everything will change.

The most likely outcome, though, is lots of compromise, 'deals with the devil,' and anything else that will allow us to keep on in the delusion we've constructed for ourselves.

I also think that here in the U.S. we will have it easy compared to those in other countries around the world, although it probably won't be seen that way.

What I hope happens is a return to the simple life. Where we use tools again instead of paying someone else to do it for us.

reply to post by truthwillneverberevealed


Total meldown and civil unrest.