"The Greatest Depression" Under Way - Gerald Celente

I recently Subscribed to The Trend Forecast by Gerald Celente, below i have copied and paste the Trend Forecast.

"The Greatest Depression" Under Way KINGSTON, NY, 2, March 2009 — “The Greatest Depression” that the Trends Research Institute forecast, well before Wall Street or Washington would acknowledge recession, is upon us. The global financial markets are collapsing. All the pundit’s cautious predictions and business media’s hopeful expectations at the New Year for an economic turn around and imminent market bottom were dead wrong. There will be no turn around in the second quarter of 2009 or 2010 or 2011 … America and much of the world has entered “The Greatest Depression.” The global financial system, built on endless supplies of cheap money, rampant speculation, fraud, greed, and delusion is terminally ill and will not be coaxed into remission by stimulus packages nor restored to health by government buyouts and bailouts. Today, the MSCI World Index of stocks in 23 developed nations fell 4.9 percent to 713.75, the lowest closing level since March 2003, and its Emerging Markets Index slid 5 percent. The Dow followed, plunging 300 points, closing below 7,000 for the first time since 1997. There is no stock market bottom in sight. The only figure that can be forecast with confidence is that the Dow won’t reach zero! As the crisis worsens, governments will take draconian measures to prevent total economic collapse and public panic. We have cautioned the likelihood of such measures before. But the rapidity and severity of the economic unraveling now demands immediate attention. Expect massive bank failures, runs on banks, and bank holidays. Even if deposits are FDIC insured, quick access to money is by no means assured. At minimum, have reserves on hand for emergencies. Trendpost: When the ship is sinking there are very few options: Life boats, life rafts, life preservers … and for the late to act, possibly a few pieces of floating debris to cling to. We are trend forecasters, not certified financial advisors legally empowered to provide such advice. Although gold prices declined today some $15 to $925 per ounce, we forecast that gold will be one of the few life saving investments that will continue to increase in value, reaching $2,000 per ounce and beyond. © MMIX The Trends Research Institute®

[edit on 3/3/2009 by wycky]

www.howestreet.com...

Here's and 18 min audio..........

More gloom and doom, fear-mongering...

Sometimes I wonder if it isn't a self-fulfilling prophecy.

reply to post by md11forever


No, just seeing the forest thru the trees.......

Celente told George Noory that oil would reach $300 a barrel last summer... He said gold would be $2000 an ounce by the end of last summer, then he said by the end of 2008, now I see he's just said "oh bother!" and has left the date open ended. The guy is the ultimate Chicken Little. Could he be right one of these days? Sure, but I have no intention of sitting around in fear, crapping myself over the predictions of a man who's woefully inaccurate with timelines at best, a complete charlitan at worst.

Originally posted by burdman30ott6
Celente told George Noory that oil would reach $300 a barrel last summer... He said gold would be $2000 an ounce by the end of last summer, then he said by the end of 2008, now I see he's just said "oh bother!" and has left the date open ended. The guy is the ultimate Chicken Little. Could he be right one of these days? Sure, but I have no intention of sitting around in fear, crapping myself over the predictions of a man who's woefully inaccurate with timelines at best, a complete charlitan at worst.

You do understand he is using statistics. I have to believe him as the way you and I look at what may happen soon. 1. Farmers crops are rotting in his field , because he has no credit to ship them. Or the supposed buyers of so said crops can not secure credit to purchase. 2. Hurricane season. Yep may be a bad or may be not, but someone has to pay out those insurance claims. 3. Manufacturing or non manufacturing. No credit to fund projects to get anything to market. So, although I do believe web-bot for finacial , they have said Summer of Hell this year and something due to a coastal event causing even more problems. Sure in my mind i like to think it will be just like yesterday, but please if you can, take a look at your states provisions durring tough times and stock up in case of. Always good to be prepaired. That being said, I hope that it does not get as bad as everyone is saying, I mean allot of people not just the above have stated Depression. So is everyone crying wolf? . Living as long as I have and seeing what is going on reminds me of later times when war started and cured the finacial mess. I am for taking his words as factual scientific evedents. Sorry about my spelling I am disabled.

reply to post by wycky

TY for the post, look forward to sharing other post from this source, I see Geralds forcasting for what it is , a trend follower and predictor, it isn't an exact science , ty for sharing . S@F

Ok, but how in the hell can you develop a predictive "trend" line based around events which are unprecidented such as trillion dollare government bailouts and CDS bubbles? This is like trying to develop a trend line to determine the likelihood monkeys will suddenly fly out of my butt. How do you guage the probabillity or even effect of an unprecidented event?

Originally posted by md11forever
More gloom and doom, fear-mongering...

Sometimes I wonder if it isn't a self-fulfilling prophecy.

How is it self-fulfilling when 99% of people don't listen to the guy?

Originally posted by burdman30ott6
Ok, but how in the hell can you develop a predictive "trend" line based around events which are unprecidented such as trillion dollare government bailouts and CDS bubbles? This is like trying to develop a trend line to determine the likelihood monkeys will suddenly fly out of my butt. How do you guage the probabillity or even effect of an unprecidented event?

Someone actually asked Celente a question similar to this. His point was that almost every single analyst or trend forecaster has some sort of self interests. Every one has something that they hope will happen or won't happen and that clouds judgement. He said he has been so accurate for decades because he removes his hope or fears and just looks at things for what they are. Good or bad.

Past forecasts have been good ones also, so he's not some doom and gloomer. Best case scenario this is one of the few times a main trend forecast of his wasn't true. Hasn't been one yet. Being off on timing of gold or oil prices isn't the main trend, its a symptom of the disease. Most agree on gold by the way.

You dont need to be a genius to see that this isnt another recession and things are going to get bad.

Just look at the policies the government is putting into play. Not only are they setting the line at 250,000 but most farmers make that much and more because of the costs of seeds, water, all other necessities needed to produce a crop. Not only will this impact food sources nation wide but world wide as we ship a lot of grain and rice to other third world countries.

sure he is using statistics - to help support his point.

What is his point?

To sell gold. Go out and look at some other precious metals sites. They are all saying the same thing: BUY GOLD, THE DEPRESSION IS HERE.

I'm not saying we aren't headed for even tougher times, that seems to be pretty apparent. But this guy is one of the many gold pushers that is shouting at the mountaintops to try and get some sales.

Here is the real question:

Are you going sit there and let people continue to tell you how things are going to end up? Or are you going to do something to either prevent or prepare? Sure, one answer might be buying gold, but that isn't going to stop anything that is already in progress.

Whether you like it or not, it's doom and gloom pure and simple. Spouting it over and over again is simply making a bad situation a lot worse. Who does that benefit? Gold salesman.

How do we get the truth from those experienced, ATSers this is the time to start talking of truth and not listen to those who wish to keep the world from a possible panic.
As far as gold is concerned ,yes it will increase in value but what then? you sell it for what? amero,s what will they be worth?

The governments can around the world can stick together and print more money,it will devalue money yes but what other choice is there to generate new money? billions was borrowed to fund the mortgages that will not be repaid. Where does this cash from the IMF come from? the cash from the churches? the charities?
I think there are going to be a lot of changes,we are told that things will improve in 1,2,3 years time. We are all in hock around the world to our governments, how else can money be generated, wars who can pay for them?
I think we should all (us the ignorant ones who have always been kept in the dark by those in authority) start planning for OUR own future ourselves storing food, water and having somewhere fairly safe to live , rather than listen to others that pretend to be on your side,when in actual fact they are not.

Originally posted by johnny2127
Past forecasts have been good ones also, so he's not some doom and gloomer. Best case scenario this is one of the few times a main trend forecast of his wasn't true. Hasn't been one yet. Being off on timing of gold or oil prices isn't the main trend, its a symptom of the disease. Most agree on gold by the way.

I think Celente's greatest gift is self-promotion.

He has made some very firm predictions that have not come to pass, whilst also completely missing world-changing events (the internet is one example).

Celente is not novel in his self-promotion strategy. If you hang around in the business/corporate sector long enough, you'll come across scaled-down Celente's.

Further, he's not really that hot at being quick off the mark when it comes to stating the bleeding obvious. Off the top of my head, I can think of maybe a dozen individuals (myself included, as well as some of my colleagues) who were starting to get concerned 2001/02. That doesn't mean we're gods or geniuses. The signs of an almighty correction to the global economic status quo have been there for all to see for more than several years.

Celente is just jumping on the band-wagon.

[This is my edit]
I'm not sure what you mean about his mistimings and multiple revisions to his oil/gas price forecasts??? If he ventures a publicised opinion about these, and then gets it wrong, he should be held to task over it, and not be allowed to mitigate his way out of it.

[edit on 4-3-2009 by mckyle]

reply to post by mckyle


His trend forecasting has been right. Regarding oil and gold prices, he has been right also, just not to the price targets he set. Then again, 2000 an ounce for gold is what it should be without the price manipulation that has been going on.

Originally posted by johnny2127
His trend forecasting has been right. Regarding oil and gold prices, he has been right also, just not to the price targets he set. Then again, 2000 an ounce for gold is what it should be without the price manipulation that has been going on.

Have a read of this: Celente Gets it Wrong

I'm not trying to rain on your parade, or denegrate Celente. As I said in the previous post, he is successful - without a doubt. However, his success is to a certain degree his ability to market himslef well and generate what we call the "halo effect". He uses his native intelligence to meld MSM articles with his penchant for self-promotion with the end product being a whole which does not equal the sum of it's parts.




[edit on 4-3-2009 by mckyle]

[edit on 4-3-2009 by mckyle]

reply to post by mckyle


Of course he isn't going to be right 100% of the time, especially when including price targets and exact timing of things. My point was that the trends he has predicted have been true.

Regarding his marketing of himself, who cares? He markets himself for 1 of 3 reasons:

1) He runs a business and wants to make money.
2) He cares about people and wants his message spread far and wide.
3) Both

Regardless, who cares. The guy has been accurate with his macros trends for decades. If someone looks back 10 years from now and says 'Celente said gold would hit $2000 and ounce in 2008 and it didn't until 2010' would you really call him wrong? Or if it only went up another 60% and went to $1500/ounce, would you call his trend wrong?

Gerald Celente: Yesterday's GoldSeekRadio interview with Chris Waltzek (second hour guest)

Celente does his best to explain the "postponement" of the collapse into "The Greatest Depression" , initially forecast by Trends Research Institute for March 09.


GC: "In our wildest dream we would have never thought that the government would have become .. a ..what's turning towards what Mussolini would have called a fascist state..the merger of corporate and state power..and dumped these ten's of trillions of dollars..fake dollars...dollars created by air into the system..so that was something we could not have known about , nor could we take ino account. So what did that do? Well that postponed the collapse..the collapse should have happened in March...that's when we said it would happen....."


Grade: E for Effort on this one.


The extremes in monetary policy to which the Fed , acting in conjunction with the US Treasury were prepared to go , were made abundantly clear in Bernanke's over publicized Helicopter Speech: Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here. It was the language in this singular speech , delivered in November 2002 , that sparked the initial phase of the current bull market in Gold , i.e. , smart money movement into precious metals.

Apparently TRI didn't take him for his word.


GL

Most of us know that printing money and spending our way out of a recession has never happened before. When the stimulas plan fails we are all in hot water.

Ive been preparing for stagflation and deflation but I expect to see hyperinflation by 2010-2011. If we dont have another big stock market crash or big bank failure, before then.

reply to post by johnny2127


He hasnt been accurate for decades..

Well I guess that depends what you def. of accurate is..

Ok, right now I call Dow 20,000 - no timetable.. just dow 20,000... now give me a book deal when the time comes.. you heard it here first!!

The one that you all should follow (if you love fear mongerors) is Roubini.. he at least has some insight I think.. even though I agree with both of them less than 5% of the time

[edit on 17-5-2009 by GreenBicMan]