India, Pakistan: Signs of a Coming War

India, Pakistan: Signs of a Coming War

www.stratfor.com

Several major signs of a coming Indian-Pakistani war surfaced Dec. 24.

Indian troops reportedly have deployed to the Barmer district of southwest Rajasthan state along the Indian-Pakistani border. Furthermore, the state government of Rajasthan has ordered residents of its border villages to be prepared for relocation. The decision reportedly came after a meeting among the state’s director-general of police, home secretary and an official from the central government.

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According to India’s ZeeNews, the Pakistani army replaced the Pakistan Rangers that regularly patrol the border with India. The Pakistani troop movements were later confirmed by U.K. Bansal, the additional director-general of India’s Border Security Force (BSF) in Barmer, Rajasthan.

As Stratfor reported Dec. 22, there is a high probability of India using military force against Pakistan after Dec. 26, when a deadline expires for Pakistan to deliver on Indian demands to crack down on Islamist militant proxies that threaten India. With low expectations that Pakistan has the will or capability to deliver on these demands, India has spent the past month preparing for military action against Pakistan. Pressure is now ratcheting up on both sides of the border, with Indian Air Marshal P.K. Barbora, air officer commanding-in-chief of the Western Air Command, telling reporters Dec. 24 that as many as 5,000 targets in Pakistan have thus far been identified, while saying that many of the militants hiding out in camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir have already fled.
Map: India-Pakistan border, provinces

It should be noted that the area of Rajasthan where Indian troops are deploying and where villagers are preparing to evacuate is a long distance from Kashmir, where conflict between India and Pakistan typically takes place. Barmer district is adjacent to Jaisalmer district, where India’s Southwestern Air Command is located. Any attacks based out of the Barmer district would involve mechanized and armored forces that could threaten the core Karachi-Hyderabad-Islamabad corridor — Pakistan’s only transit corridor that links the Pakistani heartland of Punjab with the coast. Given that cash-strapped Pakistan is a net food and energy importer and is already flirting with bankruptcy, India has a military opportunity at hand to cut off Pakistan’s economic lifeline. Furthermore, a potential cutoff would likely complicate the flow of fuel and supplies to U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan.

Any ground troop movement in southwestern Rajasthan is likely to be accompanied by air strikes against militant targets outside of Kashmir and possibly against intelligence facilities in Pakistan’s urban areas.

The timing of Indian military action is still unclear, as it will take some time for India to mobilize its forces and evacuate locals along the border area. But given these recent troop movements, it could be a matter of days before the world witnesses another Indian-Pakistani war.

With all high officials meddling with this conflict, I think there's quite something going on behind closed doors. The Saudi Prince will visit India today with the intention to ease tensions between India and Pakistan.

According to other sources, India has given Pakistan a 30 days deadline which will end tomorrow.

I don't think India will wage war with Pakistan over the bomb attacks, but you never know. What I do know, is that 2001 is the year that ushered in the beginning of a new world war. It hasn't started yet, but things are getting pretty ''explosive'' everywhere. It is just a matter of time until the powder keg will explode. Particularly with the Western world being at the edge of another depression.


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[edit on 12/26/2008 by semperfortis]

I sure hope Pakistan doesn't provoke another war unnecessarily by putting all those forces at the borders prematurely. India's leaders have said they do not want any war with Pakistan, and clearly just want justice for the Mumbai bombings. And yet even so, India still has not provided convincing, clear proof of the terrorists' Pakistani ties- and just how deep those go- to warrant military strikes. I know the US doesn't need more proof, but it would be nice if India at least had some. Forced confessions from the surviving terrorist is just not enough.

But Pakistan's military reaction suggests that Pakistan would rather side with the militants than let any more raids occur in their territory. A troublesome development, for sure. But not necessarily peace ending. At the moment the pressure from within is on India to act. Let's hope they do it wisely.

I also wonder if Pakistan could choose to turn the tables and preemptively attack India- with the help of the now committed Taliban- and with a jump on advance placements on the border. India better be watching close!

Another concern is what happens when US forces try to attack the militants with all those Pakistan forces there, positioned. The US has already been turned back on some raids by Pakistan military firing at them. Ahh, those good ole UAV's...

there is a huge possibility the war to start soon. in fact, there is only one way that it won't. this only one hope is that the Mumbai attacks were really organized by the not very known, tiny terrorist group without clear idea what is their goal to achive by this well prepared, costing a lot of money attack. is it possible? hard to belive so.

behind Mumbai attacks were standing the indian/british/pakistan/us/russian/china (choose one you prefer) or any other forces, who did organize the whole event.
and for sure not for the fireworks itself. someone is looking for the war there. and he won't stop now. let's wait and see.

I like how humans decide to prevent killing. They do it with more killing. Just make sure it's somebody else's people that get killed, though. Not a good idea for these two to go at it, It's not like America vs Iraq, these two could do some mutually serious damage to each other. I don't see how anyone could think it's worth it. This was probably one of the better terrorist attacks pulled off, how many killed? surely nothing close to the number that would perish if these two went to war. Terrorism could go on for another century, and I still don't think terrorists could kill more people than a war between Pakistan/India would.

I believe Indian action is imminent and they have been training for this kind of situation for years. And its about time that Pakistan pays for its terrorist actions. This scummy failed state is the epicentre of terror in the world. Every major terror attack in the last 10 years or so has had pakistani connections, and every major terrorist attack in the future will also have pakistani connections, guaranteed.


As the old joke goes "Pakistan is the best at IT"

IT-meaing International Terrorism

I have said it several times. What's going on overthere is so similar to what started World War I. Pakistan, India, China, Russia, pretty much all of S.E. Asia and even the Japanese all consider at least one of the others an enemy or potential enemy.

Everyone assumes WWIII will start in the Middle East. WWIII may have already started in Mumbai.

WTF ???
What happened to the "Cold-Start" Doctrine that the Indians so shamelessly kept sprouting all this time!
They should have already hit the wiggers and this should have been over by now.

reply to post by Pfeil


As I've explained before, China and Russia are both concerned about militants taking administrative roles over Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. This will not be World War III.

Saturday will be a key date: Once Christian celebrations are over with in India, the military may strike.

War already happens?
Found an "out of the blue" earthquake 6.3 in pakistan.

Magnitude 6.1 (Strong)
Date-Time [UTC] 25 December, 2008 at 22:40:24 UTC
Local Date/Time Thursday, December 25, 2008 at 02:40 at night at epicenter
Location 23.5600 64.5800
Depth 4.00 km (2.49 miles)
Region
Country Pakistan

reply to post by infinite



That is true, but if militants do get their hands on nuclear weapons by stealing them or by gaining some sort of seat of power, that in it self may force the hand of the military of Russia and China for their own interests in the region. If war does break out, India would have to gain a quick victory and secure the nuclear weapons of Pakistan otherwise there is the potential to draw in other Nations into the conflict.


This definitely has the potential to grow into something much larger. I hope cooler heads prevail and I certainly hope the Pakistan wakes up and sees how the world views it's weakening control on parts of it's territory as a potential for disaster


Of course, there are a lot of "ifs" in this way of thinking.


[edit on 25/12/08 by Pfeil]

Originally posted by coolvibe
War already happens?
Found an "out of the blue" earthquake 6.3 in pakistan.

Magnitude 6.1 (Strong)
Date-Time [UTC] 25 December, 2008 at 22:40:24 UTC
Local Date/Time Thursday, December 25, 2008 at 02:40 at night at epicenter
Location 23.5600 64.5800
Depth 4.00 km (2.49 miles)
Region
Country Pakistan

earthquake.usgs.gov...

You can see where its at on the map. Doubt its a nuke. Good lookin out though. Definately a surprise lol.

ISLAMABAD, Dec. 26 (Xinhua) -- Pakistan has canceled leaves of the army troops amid the tension between Pakistan and India, local television reported on Friday.

The Pakistani army have been put on high alert while Pakistan Air Force remained vigilant for the protection of airspace, private Geo TV channel quoted sources as saying.

Local reports said that Pakistan and India have deployed troops along the Line of Control in the disputed Kashmir and international border.

Pakistan-India tensions were heightened as the Indian side accused Pakistan-based militant groups of involvement in last month's Mumbai terror attacks, which killed more than 170 people.

But Pakistan denied involvement in the attacks and demanded concrete evidence.

The tension between the two nuclear-armed countries has put the four-year peace process on hold.

news.xinhuanet.com...

Indian government officials are currently in talks with China, trying to persuade Beijing to use its lavage to increase pressure on Pakistan.

It is putative that China is worried about Islamic militant activity in Chinese controlled Kashmir. The Saudi's, who are major financial backers of Pakistan, are said to urging co-operation with India.

reply to post by infinite


China is playing against India for a long time already. they are not going to help. in fact in close neighbourhood India has no friends at all. china, pakistan, eve Russia - they would love to see India burning

reply to post by czacza


Erm, no.

China needs India for an economic partner and Indian consumers are big purchasers of Chinese goods. Please do not assume the media line "China and Russia" - Russia has significant economic and military business with India too.

BRIC (Brazil Russia India China) economic group:

One of the recent indications was from a BRIC Summit meeting in 2008, in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg between the foreign ministers of the BRIC countries. Also in his Latin America trip Russian President Dmitry Medvedev while visiting Brazil, met with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and agreed to visa-free travel. Also Medevedev has recently made a trip to New Delhi, India and meet with Indian President, Prathiba Patil and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to discusse a nuclear deal as well as agreeing to cooperate in the spheres of finance and financial security, tourism, culture and fighting drug trafficking.

wiki BRIC economic group

China indeed has issues with India. Since the minimum wage increased a few months back in China many factories from mainland China have moved into India for manufacturing as India has a even cheaper labour force. I look at the military build up on thye seas in the region and it has to make you wonder what is up? Too many nations in the same area and possibilities of a confrontation is there.

This is a clip from a conversation I had with a business associate in Pakistan:
Hello Kashif
[12/24/2008 11:42:50 AM] I hope you are in a safe part of Pakistan! I am seeing the possibilities of a conflict there with India. Be Safe my friend!

Response:
Yes ..there might be..it is nothing new...
[12/25/2008 7:02:17 PM] Kashif says: ....India...will be surpised with our Military strength....
[12/25/2008 7:03:33 PM] Kashif Rashid says: Merry Christmas

They seem to be used to this type of conflict and they also seem very confident in Pakistan.

Scary stuff when you think of nukes