China, the largest holder of US Treasuries, Chimerica, Obama and the dollar bubble

China Now Largest Holder Of US Treasuries

The next time Congress wants to raise a $700 billion bailout fund or put together a new package to help a firm like AIG (AIG), Washington is going to have to call Beijing.

As the budget deficit grows each year and is likely to expand at a more rapid rate during a recession as receipts fall and the need for a social safety net rises, the Treasury is going to have to get deeper and deeper into the money printing business.

While it is nice that China continues to buy up the paper, since the mainland's own economy may move into a recession, it raises the question of how long the central government can continue to be a net buyer at current levels.

Raising money for the US federal government could be a lot more difficult in six months or so.

This has all the making of the next bubble, the dollar bubble. Poor Obama, this might happen on his watch.


Obama's priority focus on China

In essence, we need the Chinese to be supportive of US monetary easing and fiscal stimulus by doing more of the same themselves. There needs to be agreement on a gradual reduction of the Chimerican imbalance via increased US exports and increased Chinese imports. The alternative a sudden reduction of the imbalance via lower US imports and lower Chinese exports would be horrible.

There also needs to be an agreement to avoid a rout in the dollar market and the bond market, which is what will happen if the Chinese stop buying US government bonds, the amount of which is now set to increase massively.

Memo to President-elect Barack Obama: Don't wait until April for the next G20 summit. Call a meeting of the Chimerican G2 for the day after your inaugural.

Don't wait for China to call its own meeting of a new ''G1'' in Beijing.

But president-elect Obama is trying to end "unfair trade practices" and try to ship job back from overseas. Oh, I can't look.

Here's the thing, it seems to me Obama is a guy who thinks long term. He'll try to ship job back to the US and try to erect trade protections, since he doesn't want to be dictated by foreign governments with their sovereign wealth funds.

But on the other hand, the US still needs foreign countries to buy the treasuries. Plus, China is also slowing down because the US is slowing down.

China fears job riots

It looks like an even bigger economic disaster is unraveling.

I'm starting to think that it might be better if china slowly stops buying US treasuries. And try to negotiate quietly with the US regarding the acquisition of US assets.

This whole mounting debt thing just won't work. It's better for the entire world, if china and the US discuss this matter quietly and as soon as possible, considering the alternative, a total global meltdown, something that I don't think will ever happen.

Maybe I'm overreacting, perhaps the US mounting debt problem would not be that bad, as in would not be 'global meltdown' bad. But I can't just see the light at the end of the tunnel with the current situation.

Does anyone can figure out why Obama change his tone after his inauguration?

I think Obama wants china to stop buying US treasuries

You know what, maybe Obama himself is the one who wants the dollar to collapse!

reply to post by Jazzyguy



It feels to me that it is the goal to collapse all currencies. I could be wrong, but it sure does feel that way.

So, what does happen if China decides to get their money back from the US? Would they actually get to own some of our states or do they just get paid in our dollars which the government here seems to be able to print at will?

Originally posted by ahimsa
reply to post by Jazzyguy

 

Would they actually get to own some of our states or do they just get paid in our dollars which the government here seems to be able to print at will?

No, china will get more access to US market and the inner mechanism such as the banking system both of the US and the world's.
The US Government cannot just print money at will, it'll cause hyperinflation, just like what happened to Zimbabwe recently.

Like one sided trade? Like maybe buying more food from China and not from California? If so, maybe that's why California's farmers won't be getting water this summer?

By getting more access to the banking systems, how do you mean that? I honestly don't understand.

All I know is the world is in sorry shape.

OT...I see you are in Indonesia, how has it been there earthquake wise? Have they stopped finally or at least back down to normal numbers and sizes?

[edit on 21-2-2009 by ahimsa]

Originally posted by ahimsa
Like one sided trade

Not at all, I disagree with one sided trade, it'll be fruitless in helping the world economy. It has to go both ways.

By getting more access to the banking systems, how do you mean that? I honestly don't understand.

Such as, china has more say (voting power) in the world bank or IMF.

All I know is the world is in sorry shape.

It is, that is why it'll take a desperate measure to fix it.

OT...I see you are in Indonesia, how has it been there earthquake wise? Have they stopped finally or at least back down to normal numbers and sizes?

It really is not a big deal (not yet at least), that kind of chaingun of earthquakes sometimes happen in this region. It is actually better for the energy to be release that way rather than with one big burst.

i see a misconception here that sems to be widespread, Treasury notes are promises to pay , promissary notes, money is fiat currency, the Fed controls the actual amount of physical money. it is a privately held bank, answeable to nobody but its owners.its owners are not the U.S. Govt. T bills are akin to a bond print too many and they become a "junk bond"
there is nowhere near enough dollars in physical existence to ever pay off the national debt, as the debt is created when the government , get this, BORROWS U.S. DOLLARS AT INTREST fron the FED.
do you imagine there are untold trillions of dollar bills hidden away somewhere in a vault?
IT IS A RIGGED GAME, no winners but the Fed's owners.

reply to post by Bamaisin

I know the fed is privately owned, and if push comes to shove then there's no other way but to destroy the dollar itself. It'll be extremely messy though.

When the dollar is destroyed, automatically china will become the new superpower (sort of).