The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

reply to post by GreenBicMan

Where the hell did you find that information

My head. But assure you it's most likely accurate.

My point about the less taxable income is that I find it very hard to believe we could ever have a slope that was negative year after year.

Indeed.. that's because logically thinking, it can't happen.. but then again, we have never taken the economy by the balls and pulled it onto a new course with no historic understanding of future implications..

Just alone IMO because of the population growth year after year. I am not sure though if that has anything to do with anything but it was in my head at the time.

This is true actually, in typical economies. And by typical, I mean recessions and booms alike. However think of it this way:

2007 we see a net loss of jobs from current employers. This would then assume that net loss was thus greater than net gain, so the loss is the total loss of gain + the loss of current jobs. Meaning not only did we loose millions of jobs since 2007, we also lost millions of jobs that were never created.

Something like just shy of 5 million jobs were lost since the start of the recession.

We used to add an average of 120k jobs a month in the US.. or roughly 1.2 million jobs a year, meaning we lost some 8-9 million jobs combined, hence the huge decline in tax income. Population growth it's self without the growth of jobs to reflect income will decrease federal income because those unemployed individuals will in all likelihood become dependents -- tax write offs.

Also unemployment does not count small businesses that go under, so for small businesses that stop working, you loose that businesses income as well... through 2010 we are still seeing a strong net loss of small businesses, the only sectors of the economy seeing job growth is: Service, non-durable good manufacturing (small items), machinery and government employment.

I want to see the real numbers and when this debt is scheduled to be repaid.

When you buy a treasury the receipt will show yearly releases of income .. depending how much you invest, you then get receipts for the interest payments, which can be collected monthly, annually (depending on the contract and maturity, but assuming a 30 year bond, annual payment) so interest is ALWAYS being repaid, every day .. or you can hold all interest receipts and collect all at once at maturity. Or you can roll interest and capital into a new bond. But there is no magical date that all debt is due. It's always due. and most capital is just re-rolled into new Tbills.

reply to post by MrDarlingFace


You are letting recessionary economics cloud your thinking for a forward looking indicator.

JMO

If you believe the stock market repeats itself I am not sure how over the next 10 years you can't be outstandingly bullish. Again, just my opinion.

reply to post by Rockpuck


Good talk Russ..

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by MrDarlingFace

 

You are letting recessionary economics cloud your thinking for a forward looking indicator.

JMO

If you believe the stock market repeats itself I am not sure how over the next 10 years you can't be outstandingly bullish. Again, just my opinion.

GBM I trade options and futures. If I had a long term outlook while trading those I would lose all my money lol.

reply to post by MrDarlingFace


I see.

One of my programs trades ES, but that is intraday. I guess you could keep rolling over contract after contract, but buying and holding through the 5-10% corrections in the ES MINI can make you question being born haha.

But in reality, IMO at least, you shouldn't trade ES for example with lower than a $50,000 account. I guess that depends too on your risk management, but for everything I have it has to be professionally managed.

What time frames do you trade?

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by MrDarlingFace

 

I see.

One of my programs trades ES, but that is intraday. I guess you could keep rolling over contract after contract, but buying and holding through the 5-10% corrections in the ES MINI can make you question being born haha.

But in reality, IMO at least, you shouldn't trade ES for example with lower than a $50,000 account. I guess that depends too on your risk management, but for everything I have it has to be professionally managed.

What time frames do you trade?

Day trade mostly. I don't agree with your 50K account idea. If you have 5K or more and would like to trade E-minis with stops I think is a good idea. Why should you have 50K to trade e mini futures?

In some ways trading futures with STOPS is less risky than trading equity options with stops because your stops mean something with futures as they trade 23.5hrs a day while if you have options they can open up -90%. At least with futures if the markets tank overnight and into trading day you would have already gotten out (and maybe even began shorting). So there are definitely benefits to trading e minis and again I don't see why you should have 50K or more. I started off with 10K at first and did fine. Always have stops and be disciplined and you will go far if you have 1K, 5K or 1 million.

[edit on 18-5-2010 by MrDarlingFace]

RockPuck,

Your statements about small buisness are spot on. I have been looking to buy a small biz, but according to my CPA, now is the worst time in her 30+ years of accounting to buy a small biz. On average her small biz clients have seen anywhere from a 60 to 80% drop in gross revenue. I work in the financial service industry and I have seen a steep drop in investor confidence even though my clients are up significantly over the last 15 months.

I blame MSM, Natioanal Debt, Obama, G.Bush Jr&SR, Merkel, Sarkozy, PIIGS, GS, BAC, Greenspan, Bernake, Litle Timmy,the Fed, IRS, NSA, CIA, FBI, NWO, Bilderbergers, Masons, Knight Templar, the Pope, grays, reptilians, chemtrails, Nibiru and last but not least HAARP. If not for all these damaging forces, my energy would be whatever color brings success my chakra's would be in line and I could sleep peacefully for more than 4 hours without worrying about my future. If any cares to add to my "who is to blame" list feel free. Oh yeah how could I forget HF traders, SEC, derivitives....

reply to post by jacksmoke


haha, I like your laundry list

def. had to add HFT and Liquidity Providers into that.

don't forget Fabulous Fabrice

reply to post by jacksmoke


I'd blame Greenbicmac .. damn optimist.

One thing I find funny about unemployment numbers is that the Government lists 15.5 million unemployed, even though thats above the net loss of jobs. Also what's the biggest job in the country?

#1 Retail Sales Person
#2 Cashier
#3 Office Clerk

www.bls.gov...

Most of the largest occupations were relatively low paying. Thirty of the
40 occupations in table 4 had average wages below the U.S. mean of $20.90
per hour or $43,460 annually.

So there ya are GBM .. I may speak before my research sometimes, but I told you I was probably right. New job growth is very low paying jobs, thus very little to no federal income tax.

Now one thing that is also a .. flux of reality.. We see still with all these jobs being lost the average income of Americans increasing. Even though new jobs are very low paying, and on average US Workers are facing wage stagnation.

When a Banker gets a $500 million dollar bonus, his income will increase the average. When you have executives in corporations all over the country making more and more, even when we make less, their average increases the average wage of Americans.

This is why we have an Average Income of $47,000 with the largest jobs paying minimum wage, and 30 out of 40 of the top jobs paying far below the "average" US Income.

reply to post by MrDarlingFace


Because (personally) I cannot risk any more than 2% max of acct size on each trade. Also, professionally managed money will never be risking an avg. of over .9-1.5% per trade (Maximum Adverse Excursion aka Max OPEN POSITION DRAWDOWN).

Actually my average max drawdown (AVG. MAE) is less than .5% of the account per trade. I have to have it not only professionally managed per fund manager standards but also build a mathematical model that doesn't have a greater than 2% standard deviation from gain/loss quarter to quarter.

There is a lot more to this, so much infact it would be impossible to type, but there are some books I can recommend if you want to automate everything you have and also get a confidence factor (r^2) > 95 relating to equity curve. Not r^2 index tracking to be specific. I don't care about correlation to index, infact the less the better some would say depending on how you operate. BTW it won't tell you how to program it haha (I wish), just how to set the statistical equations up once you have all the raw data.

Anyway, there is a lot more like I said to this and that is how I have to set it up or else I am client-less.

Anyway, I would recommend automating everything because without that IMO there are now too many participants in the marketplace to be a serious discretionary trader over a sample size of 5000-10000 trades.

There is a lot more I could add to the last paragraph if I had more time. Gotta finish up some shiz so ill be on later, peace

reply to post by Rockpuck


Just real qiuck before I gotta go..\

People need to realize they are most likely only worth retail pay and IMO the greatest truth is what the market at the time will pay you.

It hurts to look in the mirror sometimes

But people will still spend over their means so GBM wins in the long run

reply to post by GreenBicMan


GBM I am truly not that complicated. I used short term EMAs, slow stochastics and RSI to indicate where the markets may be going over a longer term. And I utilize emas for day trades. When it crosses bullish buy a large amount of contracts and put a trailing stop (hell I am fine with just making 1pt which is 50 dollars/contract). I don't have millions of dollars so the order is gobbled up quickly because volume for e minis are great. I buy or sell short contracts especially around 9am as that is when the prices increase/decrease the most and 3pm. I also buy equity options in certain stocks if I see a good opportunity and the chart looks good. I mostly look at RSI and EMAs for those things. And I always hope for days when there is negative or positive news that comes out in the late PM so I can quickly buy or short contracts for the ride. Such as when the EU came out with the bail out plan, what a nice time to just add to longs right when the news came out at night time. You can't do that without a futures account and so that is a big missed opportunity if you just have a regular equities and options trading account. Make the small money in between and when you see a big opportunity then put all your fire power at it. That is my philosophy. And really, if you buy 10-20 contracts each time you see a bullish EMA cross and sell for a 1 pt gain, you make 500 to 1000 dollars. That really isn't such a bad deal at all.

reply to post by MrDarlingFace


It certainly is not a bad deal.

Simple crossover's are fine.

But you need to justify your risk

IMO 10-20 contracts on the line is too many. But I play a different game.

What are you risking to earn 1 ES Point on Average. In other words what is your AVG MAX OPEN POSITION DRAWDOWN (AVG MAX ADVERSE EXCURSION) per trade?

Once we have that we need to find out how many points per car you are averaging.

There are many more things of course. But this is a good building block.

If you are not complicated it should literally take 5 minutes to program it. Not even. Could have the last 3 years results in 10 hours of backtesting, even less if you buy/sell at close of bars. Maybe more if it is an intrabar strategy.

But you need to keep a statistical log of everything. That way you can find out how truly efficient you are and where you can improve.

The .25's in the ES Mini over 100 trades is no small chunk of change.

So the people in Europe are about to be raped again.

Germany plans to raise the sale tax to 25% instead of 20%...! Insane.

Austria plants to raise it to 22% instead of 19%.

In the UK they plan to raise the VAT tax from 17.5% to 20% real soon...

This is coming to North America soon.

The bankers want us all paying 50-70% of our income to them, just like in Europe.

That's why I work the minimum so I don't pay taxes. Screw that. I only pay sales taxes.

[edit on 18-5-2010 by Vitchilo]

Small business
Is the usual victim
In the game of MONOPOLY

reply to post by Rockpuck


My dear I have the same knowledge but I can not put it in the table like you do so eloquently, BTW we have lost since the recession, over 8 million jobs and and overall all the new jobs that were created during the 90s and will never be back as they were lost during the big outsourcing of industrial jobs.

Yes jobs are created but they are in a lower pay grade that the jobs before the recession.

But the government will never tell you that the job creation comes with an income lost.

BWAHAHAHAHAAHA

GERMANY WILL BAN SHORT SELLING STARTING AT MIDNIGHT!

EPIC!

BERLIN, May 18 (Reuters) - German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble plans to ban short-selling from midnight, coalition sources told Reuters on Tuesday.
(Reporting by Andreas Rinke; writing by Erik Kirschbaum) Keywords: GERMANY SCHAEUBLE/SHORTSELLING
(Reuters messaging: [email protected])

EPIC! Time to buy shares in the DAX!

reply to post by Vitchilo


I saw that somewhere else too but where I saw it, it only mentioned naked shortselling.

OMG

Shouldn't it be somehow statistically impossible never to have a losing day in over 4 #ing years?
Welcome to TradeBot HFT - Liquidity Provider


Must be nice to front run dark pools all day and always cash in.


Note to self : Co-locate servers at CME and retire at 26


** Also, guess who shut off their programs during flash crash! (Cue mysterious music)

reply to post by jefwane


Looks like we now know why the DAX has stabilized over the past 2 days.


Someone knew something was up and took full advantage of that.