Update: Hurricane* Gustav: Sights set on the Gulf

Originally posted by Regenmacher
reply to post by KaginD

 

NHC official forecast and media hype are two different animals, and the later can get you killed.

Although Charley's path had the storm heading toward the Tampa area, Berg said the warning swath encompassed a much larger area -- as far south as Punta Gorda, in fact. The swath takes into account any errors, he said.

"We were not saying Tampa. We were saying the west coast of Florida," Berg said. The media's fixation with "Tampa, Tampa, Tampa," gave the public the wrong idea, he noted.

Everyone had "ample warning," Berg said. "It's just unfortunate that certain people didn't evacuate. source

99% of the time the NHC is correct www.nhc.noaa.gov...

[edit on 28-8-2008 by Regenmacher]

Wow. You know, we didn't have the same news as the rest of the country that day. I remember my grandmother and I were watching the weather and seeing the cone around the Tampa area. About a half an hour later my mother in law called from NJ and they were being told that we were a possibility as much as Tampa was. We went to my aunts house because we were in a flood zone. Maybe about 10 min. after we got there we saw on the news that it took a "side step" and was heading straight for Punta Gorda. We didn;t have boards up or anything because they were telling us it was Tampa. It was really messed up. I didn't see many people boarding up or dropping their awnings before the storm, so I knew we were all in trouble. We thought we were getting a ton of rain and that was it.. We were sadly mistaken. I still to this day don't know if the local news in our area was sugar coating the situation (which I like to think they wouldn't) or if it was a miscalculation... I do recall them evacuating the trailer parks, but they didn't issue an evacuation for anyone else.

I hope people in the gulf states are vigilant and take measures to guarantee their own safety. For some reason I just have a bad feeling about Gustav, this thing could be a cat 4 or worse by Monday when it is set to make landfall.

Im also happy to see that the government agencies and FEMA are getting prepared early on for this one. It would be a real tragedy to have another Katrina take place. People in these states have enough to worry about as it is without having another major catastrophe hit now.


To anyone who happenes to be in the projected path please be safe and make sure to plan ahead for evacuating if need be. Property isnt worth dying over. Good luck

reply to post by KaginD


Your story is a good example of why it can be very bad to try an outguess a hurricane's landfall when your in the forecast cone. I hope no one gambles on Gustav, if they see the same situation.


Hurricane Charley - 2004



[edit on 28-8-2008 by Regenmacher]

Well, Ive been waiting on an update before I posted, so here it is. I think youll be surprised at what Dr. Masters says, I sure was.

It's time to get familiar with the names Hanna, Josephine, Ike, and Kyle, because the tropical Atlantic is about to put on a rare burst of very high activity in the coming weeks.

I was wondering why Gustav made such a giant shift to the south when I saw the track this morning, now we know why.
In a dire attempt at survival he created a new center away from damaging dry air, Gustav's track didnt change, he just made a new eye further south, giving the impression that the storm moved.

The atmosphere pulled a major surprise last night and this morning, substantially altering the short and long-term fate of Tropical Storm Gustav. The ridge of high pressure that was forcing Gustav to the west shifted positions, and is now oriented southwest-to-northeast. This has pushed Gustav to the southwest, and pumped in some dry air into the northwest side of Gustav. As a result of this dry air, and the weakening of the circulation due to interaction with Haiti's mountains, Gustav was forced to form a new center under heavy thunderstorms on the its south side, away from the dry air and Haiti. As a result, the center of Gustav is now passing very close to Jamaica, and Gustav will pound that island today with winds near hurricane force. Rainfall will continue to be the main threat from Gustav today, as it was when it hit Hispaniola. Gustav's torrential rains accumulated to over 12 inches in southern Hispaniola, triggering floods and landslides that killed 22 people. The rain are mostly over in Hispaniola, but are just getting cranked up over Jamaica. It appears now that eastern Cuba will not get much rain from Gustav.

We also have Hannah in the Atlantic and a new invest in the Sw Gulf of Mexico.

Read all about it here Wunderground
I dont have time to post it all, I have quite a few things to take care of today as well as getting prepared to possibly leave this weekend.

I forgot to add this image which shows 4 more tropical waves in the Atlantic.








[edit on 8/28/2008 by Kr0n0s]

Here is a page where you can download something into google earth
that has live tracking of the Hurricane Hunter Recon Planes.

Recon Tracking

Here's a link on weather manipulation of Gustav...

data4science.net...

Take care, Jamaica. Gustav is moving over Jamaica now and it looks like he's gonna meander his way westward across most of the island. The upside is that he's still not quite a hurricane; 70mph winds are nothing to sneeze at, but it could be worse. Here's hoping he gets broken up some more over land. The 5pm update still has him dead-bang on a LA landfall late Monday/early Tuesday. The track has shifted slightly left, but not by much. I think Jindal is doing the right thing by preparing the state early.

Invest 96L kinda popped up out of nowhere in the Bay of Campeche. NHC says if it stays over water it could intensify. He should avoid the CONUS, but the way things are shaping up over the next few weeks you just never know. Keep an eye on this one; it looks like it's drifting north right towards TX on the visible water vapor.

Now, Hanna. Hanna's looking iffy and ragged right now but all main models point to her remaining a threat.
I'm not sure how long this link will remain valid to what I say below, but the current ECMWF model is, frankly, horrifying. It has Gustav making landfall Monday/Tuesday as the other models indicate, but it also has Hanna taking a southerly dive between FL and Cuba and swinging back northwest into the GoM, where she intensifies into a solid hurricane, for a landfall in roughly the same spot as Gustav next Saturday. This is but one model and we're way too far out to consider this anywhere near likely, but the thought of it....not good. It's probably the worst thing that could happen; a one-two hurricane punch on the LA coast first early Tuesday morning then again just 4 or 5 days later. Keep in mind that ECMWF is doing something different than all the other models, so don't panic. Do keep an eye on her, though.

Spaghetti models for Hanna
Spaghetti models for Gustav

Originally posted by Kr0n0s
In a dire attempt at survival he created a new center away from damaging dry air, Gustav's track didnt change, he just made a new eye further south, giving the impression that the storm moved.

The track did change, and when you have a reformation of the LLC it's plotted as such too.
Also, the model forecast paths have shifted slightly westward because of this.



The official NHC discussion:

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND A SURPRISE THIS MORNING. GUSTAV HAS EITHER REFORMED TO THE SOUTH OR BEEN MOVING MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. source

It's Either-Or, because without recon and ground obs, the data is limited and remote observations cannot accurately see thru the CDO...in any event, track has changed and forecast models reconfigured to reflect the change.

Current forecast path:


Previous forecast path:


Animation of official forecast paths here



[edit on 28-8-2008 by Regenmacher]

Of course the track has changed and it will continue changing, I would bet that it will change at least a dozen times before it hits land, wherever it hits land.
Here is the latest computer model run, notice that most of them have shifted more to the west?
I wouldnt put any stock in any of these models, not even what state it will go to, until it gets past Jamaica and any other land, becomes more stable and a hurricane again, then when it gets into the Gulf, the models will be more accurate.
By that time we should no more about Hannah and the 4 other systems that are coming across the Atlantic at this time.
Im growing weary watching this storm, trying to figure out where its going to go and where I will end up going, is driving me crazy



btw, G is starting to spin, looking like a true tropical system now, instead of a blob of thunderstorms.




[edit on 8/28/2008 by Kr0n0s]

Here we are agin! And its the season to get stocked up on all our goods, and water!
Fey just missed us! Thanks for the update.. Living here right on the beach I know that my life hangs in the thread of these storms.

I could lose my home, my stuff, and my job. All its going to take is one big hit to the tampa area and Im screwed!!!

Lets just focus and be prepared, its all we can do!

Heads up! and keeping an eye on this storm!

Thanks to everyone for all the great maps and links. I am down in Houston and still preparing.

My daughter and I will go out tomorrow and fill gas tanks and get some extra bottles of water. My son-in-law is coming over Saturday morning with plywood for our windows.

The officials here say if it looks like Gustav will hit as a Category 3, they will start evacuating Houston. After Hurricane Rita, they devised a plan to have people evacuate by their zip codes so as not to grid lock all the highways. That plan will actually work as long as everyone obeys the rules and doesn't panic. If we have to leave, we will most likely head toward Austin.

Marilyn~

I am also in Houston.

Now they are saying it may make landfall in the mid coast of LA, then ride the coastline to about the Houston area.

You know what that is going to do to gas prices??? On a national level?

The way I am tracking it, if it doesn't turn NNW, it is on a course for the upper Texas coast.

If it continues to tip toe across, the sea to the gulf at less then 8 mph and continues W to NW toward LA/TX, and strats to intensify like Rita did, chaos will start to set in about 3pm to 4pm on Friday.

If the trend continues through Saturday, it will be a war like holiday weekend. It may even make the weekend even longer for the area that it strikes.

Anyway, thats my thoughts as I try to head to bed.

Here we go again (with another 2005 replay).

Yeah, Gustav looks to be heading straight for the oil patch. There appears to be more systems getting ready to line up as well.

I guess now is when we find out if the people, state, and Federal governments have learned the lessons of '05.

TO ALL ATSERS IN THE PATH

Get out of the way, and be self sufficient, I have a hit that those detention centers in Denver and other obscure places will be used for detainment of evacuees.

reply to post by Marilyn

Thanks to everyone for all the great maps and links. I am down in Houston and still preparing.

I live in Corpus Christi and although I dont watch any of the local news channels to know for sure but there doesnt seem to be any buzz going on about any of these storms, particularly Gustav.
It doesnt really matter to me though because fore one, i dont think it will even come close to Corpus and two, if it did come, it would need to be a high cat 3 to get me to go through the Huge hassles of evacuating.
Of course, I wouldnt allow my son to stay here with me, even though he wants to but I may be foolish but im not an idiot, so he would go to the bit.. i mean to his mothers until a few days after its passed.
Since 2004, I have been in 3 storms, Frances and Jeanne both passed fairly close to my Hotel in Melbourne Fl but Rita in 05 her eye passed very close, in my opinion, to my hotel room in Abbeyville La.
In that one, the hotel shook and the windows rattled but i slept through most of it lol. A home across the parking lot had its roof torn off, others had trees fall on them, on the north side of the hotel, stores across the street had things toppled in their parking lots.
A city . just about 10 miles to our west, called New Iberia, where even the street signs were in French was completely flooded and the Vermillion River to our west was completely flooded for several miles.
Hell of an experience but not enough to deter me from doing it again

Tracks will be shifting around a whole lot over the next couple days. The most recent models put many of the tracks back east, notably the GFDL which has been quite good this season, so I won't be surprised to see her track shifted slightly east at the 5am or 8am update. NOGAPS is an outlier and should be taken with a grain of salt.
Regardless, we're probably going to see the tracks go east and west several times until Gus gets past Cuba. He's doing all sorts of crazy things, but conditions are still "good" for him to intensify and move into the GoM.

From the 2am discussion, this jumped out at me:

THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 99
KT...THE LGEM MODEL 94 KT...THE GFDL 111 KT...AND THE HWRF 137 KT.
THE LATTER IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5 HURRICANE BY 72 HR..

Yuck.

Re: Hanna - she's really ramping up and several more models have her taking that SW dip towards FL. Depending on the high pressure ridge over FL, she could potentially track between FL and Cuba and get spit out into the Gulf like the earlier model I posted. Again, we're too far out to determine final landfall, but Hanna is another one to keep a close eye on.

Gustav is officially at hurricane strength again as of 3:15pm EST. He's grown tremendously in size and his eye is starting to develop. The only landmass in his way to slow him down now is the far western tip of Cuba, and by the time he reaches the area tomorrow he'll be much stronger than his current 75mph. He won't lose too much strength when he passes Cuba - unless he decides to slow down and hang around for a bit like he did with Haiti.

Take care, Cayman Islanders. That'll be Gus' next stop later today.

Guastav is now a cat 2 hurricane , and looks like cat 3 by lunch.

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
210 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008


DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 100
MPH...155 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

It's time to leave New Orleans

Today is the 3rd anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's catastrophic hit on the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama coast. Unfortunately, I think that people living in New Orleans should mark the anniversary of Katrina by getting the heck out of the city. You live at the bottom of a bowl, much of it below sea level. While New Orleans must exist where it is, this is not natural. Nature wants to fill up this bowl with huge quantities of Gulf of Mexico sea water. There is a storm capable of doing that bearing down on you.

If you live in New Orleans, I suggest you take a little Labor Day holiday--sooner, rather than later, to beat the rush--and get out of town. Gustav is going to come close to you, and there's no sense messing with a major hurricane capable of pushing a Category 3 storm surge to your doorstep. Don't test those Category 3 rated--but untested--levees.

Conventional pre-Katrina wisdom suggested that the city needed 72 hours to evacuate. With the population about half of the pre-Katrina population, that lead time is about 60 hours. With Gustav likely to bring tropical storm force winds to the city by Monday afternoon, that means that tonight is a good time to start evacuating--Saturday morning at the latest. Voluntary evacuations have already begun, which is a good idea.

Visible satellite loops continue to show a well-organized and intensifying storm that is growing larger in size. Upper-level outflow is established in all quadrants and is growing. Low-level spiral bands are multiplying and intensifying, and the amount and intensity of Gustav's heavy thunderstorms are steadily increasing.

A well-defined eye has appeared, and Gustav appears poised to enter a phase of rapid intensification. Radar from Pilon, Cuba shows the developing spiral bands of Gustav quite well. Dry air is not evident anywhere close to Gustav.

[edit on 30-8-2008 by undermind]

Winds are now up to 115 and it isn't even breakfast time.

It is favored to weaken before it hits the LA coast (and then swings west toward east TX/Houston).

As this thing grows, panic will begin to set in across the Gulf later today. Probably by tomorrow, if you haven't bought what you want from the store, you won't be able to.

Hotel rooms in safe areas are being snatched up and soon, very soon, will likely be unavailable.

I believe a mandatory evacuation of New Orleans will be in full swing later today, if not already.

If you live ANYWHERE in the US, fill up all your gas tanks today. You will never see gas this cheap again for the rest of your life.

The hurricane is predicted to affect 20% - 34% of our oil capacities. This storm is another worst case scenerio.

I live in the Houston area. People here were on edge yesterday but the bank run was normal for the Friday before Labor day and the stores had plenty of lumber and water, ect. ect.

If you live in the area were the storm might swing to after it hits LA, you should go to the store today and get your supplies that you really should have already bought.

Category 4 is at 130 mph.

Get ready. Here we blow again.

As of about 7:30am central, winds are now up to 120. Again, it is supposed to weaken before it makes landfall. Weaken from what? Who knows.

And it is still expected to hit LA, then hook or swing west toward eastern TX and/or the Houston metro area.

[edit on 8/30/2008 by Genfinity]