Asteroid 2007 TU24 has NASA concerned.

reply to post by TheSonOfMan


That guy is a self-professed skeptic, so naturally no dolphins died in the making of canned tuna. The meteorite that hit France Friday is interesting. A fragment of TU24 perhaps?

reply to post by TheSonOfMan




Are you serious? You think he's covering for NASA?! This whole situation reminds me of a little saying that can be rearranged to fit our needs. Guns don't kill people; people kill people.

Asteroids don't scare people; people scare people.

I am far beyond done being worried about this rock. If you guys want to keep trying to scare people with the might's and what if's, go ahead, but I will certainly be back here Tuesday to give you all a big dose of TOLD YOU SO.

reply to post by TheSonOfMan


It's only 30-ish hours until closest approach. I disagree with some of BadAst's numbers but overall... yep, that's about it, yep. Yep. Uh, huh. She's gone mad-rabid-viral. Beer?

An hour and a half-ish until we might see some more NEODys data... based on yesterday's report times. No guarantees.

Vic



[edit on 27-1-2008 by V Kaminski]

Just to clarify/respond to the numerous I Told You So comments on this thread...I know that my on-going interest, and I would suspect that many of the poster's and reader's on-going interest in 2007 TU24 has more to do with understanding the nature of this type of threat in general. This is not a one-time event in world history. The one thing we can guarantee is that earth will face such a threat in the future. Utilizing this particular incident to learn, discuss, and understand more about how the science, communication and "politics" within the NEO industry work as a whole is as much a part of this thread as the specific asteroid.

I Told You So does not take into account the quest for increased knowledge about any subject matter you choose to explore. Interest or inquiry should not be confused with fear in my opinion. I, for one, have so appreciated the insights of those far more versed in this subject matter. Knowledge actually creates the opposite of fear. Is that not, in some ways, the purpose of a forum website such as ATS?

Peace...and again, thank you to all who have shared and continue to share their knowledge, questions and information.

reply to post by DancedWithWolves


I just want to clarify that it isn't for those who have actually tried understanding and gathered information and had useful things to say; it is for those who came here and wouldn't open their minds to other possibilities and basically wanted to try and scare people into their way of thinking.

reply to post by Juicy


It's not about scaring people. Many of us want off this crazy blue marble. TU24 is a fantastic possibility for that.

Hi Juicy nice to meet you.
According to their website unusual weather is an sign, before the arrival of TU24. Our weather here in the desert is windy and cold. I don't know if it's unusual tho? It's been windy and cold this time of year many times before. Now, if we get a Tornado or an Aurora Borealis I'll let you guys know. Especially if my satellite tv goes out!
Another sign- spike in Earthquakes. Hummm,,,,,not yet. If the sky starts glowing and my compass goes crazy..... I'm Out of Here!
That is the sky glowing and not my compass right? My compass already glows! LOL I live by the Nevada Test Site.

My quail birdies are still missing I'm not worried tho. They're probably hunkered-down trying to keep warm some place. Jerad the Raven flew right up to the window today. He just wants an Oreo Cookie nothing mysterious there. He usually hangs out over highway 160 waiting for a rabbit to meet his maker. He loves fresh roadkill.

How am I suppose to know if TU24 hits nearby? The NTS shakes up the place all the time anyways! Hope your feeling better Dg.
Thanks for the info guys.

reply to post by Juicy


Juicy...hello and nice to meet you too...I pretty much knew what you were referring to in your case...those words have just been restated so many times I had grown weary. I'm sorry if my timing for a general reply singled you out because that was not my intention although I realize it had the effect. Again, my apologies.

I wanted to clarify motives for those thread survivors (yes, I am one of those weird people who has read every post on this ever-living thread). This has been an eye-opening, thought-provoking, jaw-dropping thread.

I find it confounding that the two sites where information is updated do not feel compelled in any way to offer "simperfied" information to folks who might have a general interest in this event. They act as if the only people who can want to know or have a right to know anything are scientists with aeronautics backgrounds. That...in the information age...is horse pooey. If they aren't guilty of lying...they are centainly guilty of ommission by industry-specific linguistics being their only communication vehicle.

And for the record...I rather enjoy this blue marble and have no desire to find myself elsewhere so I'm calling squatter rights to earth. And, the many and varied wildlife which surrounds me seems to be taking the coming asteroid in everyday stride as well.

Peace

Nice to meet you two, too! I didn't think you were taking out a personal attack on me, and I should have clarified my statement when I typed it. But you know, everyone says well how do you know the government is or isn't doing this. Well, you don't. That is where you use your common sense to sort through things. But it is the one thing they don't do; they just continue to say the same things over and over and hold firm to their belief that they are right. That is one thing I do have and I am -so- glad I am not one of those people who is only book smart. I am certainly NOT book smart; medical smart, yes. Grammar smart only when I have to be. Common sense, most definitely.

reply to post by MountainStar

Thanks, i do feel better after an interesting day. I'm sitting at home in the middle of a huge snowstorm, ooops, i just opened the sliding door and about a foot and a half out there !!! That's incredible!
Too bad the snow is now in my living room
OMG!
Anyway, there's no end in sight! I cant wait till MR> Tempe tries to get out in the morning!!
Anyway, its a freakish storm and we're supposed to get over an inch an hour until morning!!!

Anyhow, the birds were out and singing on my deck this morning when it first started, that was freaky. I'm concerned about what the 29th will bring, (nothing i hope) but i sure as hell am not going to stay home alone and wait for whatever.
I'm going to visit family.

Take care all of you, and God bless.

I've been out of this one for a few days now. Wow, it's grown! I remember posting a link to a report some fifty pages back. This report was from JPL, and it (TU24) is clearly defined as a miss with another close approach in 2046. Many people posted similar information both before and after mine that pretty much stated the same thing, yet somehow it seems like fear kept dominating over rationality for so many people. So many were (are?) convinced that we will be offed by a rock, when in reality you should be more wary of frozen branches falling from trees! I could see that happening before getting smashed by an asteroid. How could people be so wanting of this? I'm glad I don't have to wake up feeling like that!

I don't know if it has been posted yet but does anyone have the link to the picture of 24? And how are the chances looking on a direct hit. I noticed today that I'm catching some pretty far off radio stations, and noticing more static on my celly than usual. Im thinking maybe 24 is negatively charged after all? But anyway a picture would be appreciated!

Originally posted by ArMaP

Your Inputs:
Distance from Impact: 100.00 km = 62.10 miles
Projectile Diameter: 300.00 m = 984.00 ft = 0.19 miles
Projectile Density: 3000 kg/m3
Impact Velocity: 9.48 km/s = 5.89 miles/s
Impact Angle: 45 degrees
Target Density: 2500 kg/m3
Target Type: Sedimentary Rock

Energy:
Energy before atmospheric entry: 1.91 x 1018 Joules = 4.55 x 102 MegaTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth during the last 4 billion years is 1.2 x 104years

Atmospheric Entry:
The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 44700 meters = 147000 ft
The projectile reaches the ground in a broken condition. The mass of projectile strikes the surface at velocity 9.03 km/s = 5.61 miles/s
The impact energy is 1.73 x 1018 Joules = 4.13 x 102MegaTons.
The broken projectile fragments strike the ground in an ellipse of dimension 0.884 km by 0.625 km

Crater Dimensions:
Crater shape is normal in spite of atmospheric crushing; fragments are not significantly dispersed.

Transient Crater Diameter: 3.13 km = 1.94 miles
Transient Crater Depth: 1.11 km = 0.688 miles

Final Crater Diameter: 3.65 km = 2.27 miles
Final Crater Depth: 0.437 km = 0.271 miles
The crater formed is a complex crater.
At this impact velocity ( < 12 km/s), little shock melting of the target occurs.

Thermal Radiation:
At this impact velocity ( < 15 km/s), little vaporization occurs; no fireball is created, therefore, there is no thermal radiation damage.

Seismic Effects:
The major seismic shaking will arrive at approximately 20 seconds.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 6.3
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 100 km:

IV. Felt indoors by many, outdoors by few during the day. At night, some awakened. Dishes, windows, doors disturbed; walls make cracking sound. Sensation like heavy truck striking building. Standing motor cars rocked noticeably.

V. Felt by nearly everyone; many awakened. Some dishes, windows broken. Unstable objects overturned. Pendulum clocks may stop.

Ejecta:
The ejecta will arrive approximately 144 seconds after the impact.
At your position there is a fine dusting of ejecta with occasional larger fragments
Average Ejecta Thickness: 858 micrometers = 33.8 1/1000 of an inch
Mean Fragment Diameter: 2.24 cm = 0.881 inches

Air Blast:
The air blast will arrive at approximately 303 seconds.
Peak Overpressure: 5700 Pa = 0.057 bars = 0.81 psi
Max wind velocity: 13.1 m/s = 29.4 mph
Sound Intensity: 75 dB (Loud as heavy traffic)

So, even if it hit, it wouldn't be as destructive as I first thought it could be.


Until January 30, again.



Are you sure all the data you entered was accurate? I read online that the asteroid had a nickel iron core which would make the density between 3000 and 8000kg/m^3.

I estimated it at 5000kg/m^3 and after entering those details it made the impact a lot more devastative then your previous assessment. I also changed the size of the asteroid to 400 as the overall size is only an estimate and 400 was listed on several websites.

Target parameter is sedimentary rock which is what you had it as. Other then the size and velocity I used the same inputs as you. Here are the results:

Your Inputs:
Distance from Impact: 100.00 km = 62.10 miles
Projectile Diameter: 400.00 m = 1312.00 ft = 0.25 miles
Projectile Density: 5000 kg/m3
Impact Velocity: 18.00 km/s = 11.18 miles/s
Impact Angle: 45 degrees
Target Density: 2500 kg/m3
Target Type: Sedimentary Rock

Energy:
Energy before atmospheric entry: 2.71 x 1019 Joules = 6.48 x 103 MegaTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth during the last 4 billion years is 9.5 x 104years

Atmospheric Entry:
The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 36600 meters = 120000 ft
The projectile reaches the ground in a broken condition. The mass of projectile strikes the surface at velocity 17.8 km/s = 11 miles/s
The impact energy is 2.65 x 1019 Joules = 6.32 x 103MegaTons.
The broken projectile fragments strike the ground in an ellipse of dimension 0.807 km by 0.57 km

Major Global Changes:
The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass.
The impact does not make a noticeable change in the Earth's rotation period or the tilt of its axis.
The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.

Crater Dimensions:
What does this mean?


Crater shape is normal in spite of atmospheric crushing; fragments are not significantly dispersed.

Transient Crater Diameter: 6.26 km = 3.89 miles
Transient Crater Depth: 2.21 km = 1.37 miles

Final Crater Diameter: 7.99 km = 4.96 miles
Final Crater Depth: 0.553 km = 0.344 miles

The crater formed is a complex crater.
The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 0.167 km3 = 0.04 miles3
Roughly half the melt remains in the crater , where its average thickness is 5.41 meters = 17.8 feet

Thermal Radiation:
What does this mean?


Time for maximum radiation: 0.335 seconds after impact

Visible fireball radius: 5.18 km = 3.21 miles
The fireball appears 11.8 times larger than the sun
Thermal Exposure: 1.05 x 106 Joules/m2
Duration of Irradiation: 77.5 seconds
Radiant flux (relative to the sun): 13.6

Effects of Thermal Radiation:


Much of the body suffers first degree burns


Seismic Effects:
What does this mean?


The major seismic shaking will arrive at approximately 20 seconds.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 7.1
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 100 km:

VI. Felt by all, many frightened. Some heavy furniture moved; a few instances of fallen plaster. Damage slight.

VII. Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken.


Ejecta:
What does this mean?


The ejecta will arrive approximately 144 seconds after the impact.
Average Ejecta Thickness: 1.37 cm = 0.54 inches
Mean Fragment Diameter: 5.01 cm = 1.97 inches


Air Blast:
What does this mean?


The air blast will arrive at approximately 303 seconds.
Peak Overpressure: 23500 Pa = 0.235 bars = 3.33 psi
Max wind velocity: 50.5 m/s = 113 mph
Sound Intensity: 87 dB (Loud as heavy traffic)
Damage Description:


Interior partitions of wood frame buildings will be blown down. Roof will be severely damaged.

Glass windows will shatter.

About 30 percent of trees blown down; remainder have some branches and leaves blown off.





[edit on 1-27-2008 by CPYKOmega]

Well, interesting that some cities here in California (I'm in LA) got more rain in the past two days than they received for the ENTIRE 2006-2007 rainy season.

Can't say the rain is unusual, it is still (barely) winter, but again, its the timing of all this activity in the skies that have had me refreshing my ATS 1 million times.

If you'll look at the bottom of the JPL page, you'll notice an Earth MOID box - this is the minimum distance from Earth, expressed in Astronomical Units (AU, the distance from the Earth to the Sun, or about 93,000,000 miles). The math calculation is a simple one, and it reveals that the closest approach will be about half the distance from the Earth to the moon.

It's going to be an interesting day tomorrow. Time to tell the girlfriend about it, profess ignorance about what's going to happen, then cuddle up and watch Deep Impact. Count on a little romantic fireworks at the end of the movie...

Why not - there's nothing we can do either way anyway... so why worry about it?

[edit on 28-1-2008 by n7ekg]

Well it's half the distance from the earth to the moon? Didn't it used to be 1.4 moon distances? if it were to hit how long before it hit would we know where it was going to plop down? I surely don't wanna wake up being vaporized....

Good morning all. Vic, any more numbers? Where we standing on this today?

NEODys is reporting.... the same E MOID as yesterday 0.00099. This was reported at UTC 9:20. Just under 24 hours until it is just past Earth.

Houston? We don't have a problem. As I've been saying... no problem.

Vic

[edit on 28-1-2008 by V Kaminski]

Originally posted by tartlebone
Well it's half the distance from the earth to the moon? Didn't it used to be 1.4 moon distances? if it were to hit how long before it hit would we know where it was going to plop down? I surely don't wanna wake up being vaporized....

Yeah they keep making it a smaller number then originally predicted. I have noticed that as well, and as for all the folks that kept saying it was gonna be on the other side of the moon we now can see they were full of bull crap. Which is what I had said in the begining that it would be between us and the moon. But oh well back then I was someone whom they said wanted it to hit. LOL.

I dont think it will hit but one never knows about this magnetic field stuff, if they clash then who knows what will happen. I guess we can start walking to the store if it happens.

Hilda

Originally posted by tartlebone
Well it's half the distance from the earth to the moon? Didn't it used to be 1.4 moon distances? if it were to hit how long before it hit would we know where it was going to plop down? I surely don't wanna wake up being vaporized....

If you took time to research the subject you would realize that even if this asteroid did hit the earth it would not destroy us all. It would possibly cost lives but according to this site www.lpl.arizona.edu... developed by guys with PHD's your concerns would be unwarranted.

Please check my earlier post for more info.