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A past gift

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posted on Nov, 1 2007 @ 02:36 PM
I recently made a post back on 9/18/2007

I know I do not recommend stock on here, nor should anything I ever be talk about, be deemed as any investment recommendation, but did any of you read this post?

I profitted nicely from the trade. Granted I shorted the stock for different reason than what the post was originally about. The Company is a 1 product shoe designer. Granted everyone seems to be wearing them, but most of the CROX like shoes I see are actually knock offs. Just like Heely's, this one shoe pony is destined to be a single digit midget of a stock.

Another stock I have been watching closely is MA, Mastercard. This stock experienced a tremendous short squeeze recently thanks to blow out earnings, but the run up in thso stock does is not indicative of what I beielve is going on at the company. This stock is widely held by insiders and institutional investors. Everyone is excited about all those interest payments they are recieving thanks to the slow down in the economy and people making minimum interest payments, having their interest charges increased on a percentage base due to late payments and such. But what people aren't seeing is all these delinquent accounts have the potential to be out right defaults? Did you know that most mortgage companies allow you to pay your mortgages with credit cards? Can you imaging throwing 2 or 3 thousand dollars a months on one of these things???? People who can;t pay thier motgages at 5-7 % are charging them away on credit cards paying 17-29%. Does that make sense? We have seen tremendous run ups in the foreclosure numbers, and most of these foreclousers will undoubtedly lead to bankruptcies. What happens to the credit card accounts then? I know they past that law a few years ago, but I fully expect that law to be repealed in the face of all the pending bankruptcies, especially if the house, senate and presidency falls in favor of democrats (oh my God, the tax hikes!). Well, this company is on my very short list of potential shorts and I will put a trade on when I think it is time. As for now, the short interest squeezes are just to painful to watch, let alone be a part of. Currently there is roughly 10% of the shares short. I would like to see a number more along 5%, sot he spikes are not as drastic.

Another to watch is COF. This is a credit card company, that is acting like a bank. Granted they bought Northfork Financial, but they did it only to buy the mortgage section of Greenpoint Financial. They have since had to close this section and have stopped underwriting new mortgages. Credit Card companies are eventually in big trouble. Right now my big plays are mortgage and bond insurers. My biggest winner to date has been ABK.

Sorry if you all think I am mean to making money on the SHORT side of AMERICA, but thats how the game works.
1) the trend is your friend, follow the trend.
2) Weak stocks are weak for a reason
3) Cut your losers short, let your winners run!
4) when in doubt ... get out!

Common sense rules the day when trading. The more information you have, the better off you are. Its the people in the know, that are in early and out early.

5) Bulls make money, bears make money...pigs get slaughtered.

I could keep going, but I think you get the picture.

Like I said earlier, I am not recommending MA for any kind of a trade, just for something for you to watch. It is a highly volatile stock and shorting it can cause many sleepless nights.

The short side of any market has unlimited loss potential and makes it that much riskier.

posted on Nov, 7 2007 @ 03:21 PM
Anyone see COF??? down almost 15 points since I sad it was a short. Lowering my price target from low $40's to $35.

Hope someone makes a profit.

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