What if Osama took control of Pakistan?

Scenarios anyone?

Considering that our ally is really only Musharraf, not the Pakistani people or Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence(ISI), the US doesn't really have any depth of support there.

Al-Qaeda may have ties to Pakistan's ISI.

Osama is already supposedly hiding out on the Pakistan/Afghanistan border.

This all leads up to a horrible possibility. That Osama could be in control of nuclear weapons.

Does the United States immediatley nuke Pakistan the moment that Al-Qaeda/Osama take power?

Pakistan has enough anti-Musharraf and anti-US factions of their own, especially in the western provinces. Musharraf had plenty of assassination attempts on his life, even before supporting the US War On Terror. Al Quida will be all too happy to assist his demotion, however I think local extremists are more likely to accomplish this.

As for the reaction by US to that- you can bet there will be some confrontation. There is no way US is losing a mojor ally in the Middle East without putting up a fight. Musharraf himself probably has plenty of replacements among military generals, in case of his death. The problem is, his replacement might not be as stable as him. I am sure both Pakistan and US have something planned in the event of a coup. Such a careful and cunning dictator as Musharraf is bound to have a few tricks up his sleeve. Maybe the nuclear warheads will immediately fall into the control of his generals, who will get assistance from the US. Overall his control of the whole country is far to large, for his enemies to succeed in capturing power without at least a full scale war.

Maybe the nuclear warheads will immediately fall into the control of his generals, who will get assistance from the US

What makes you think that his generals would stay loyal to him?

Originally posted by hereandnow
What makes you think that his generals would stay loyal to him?

From what I heard, Musharraf has a very very firm control over Pakistan's armed forces. I am sure he picks his commanders very carefully, and they owe absolute loyalty to him, otherwise they are not kept in power (Saddam had similar command of the army). He probably trust some more than others, and possibly some are his relatives/or from his village or something of that sort. With somebody in complete control as Musharraf, it would be very tough for his minions to plan something against him.

But either way it will probably lead to direct or covert US involvement.

Originally posted by hereandnow
Scenarios anyone?

Considering that our ally is really only Musharraf,

Musharraf might not be the personal saviour of everyone in pakistan, but the pakistanis aren't just some tribal mud hut living jihadis, waiting for the chance to kowtow to some arab foreigner. Bin laden isn'tr going to be running pakistan. The south wouldn't have stand for it at all, and neither would the military.

Al-Qaeda may have ties to Pakistan's ISI.

Considering that the ISI created, trained, and funded the Taliban, yeah, thats a good bet. Far cry from them inviting him over to run things for them.

Does the United States immediatley nuke Pakistan the moment that Al-Qaeda/Osama take power?

SUrely the US'd nuke the known nuke sites, or hit them with something that can be trusted.
Actually, India would probably hit them before the US could.

But its not like Musharaf is standing in power all on his own, I mean, he doesn't look all that formidable, I'd think that a division of the army could take him as an individual, so he clearly has strong support, enough to be in power anyway. How'd Bin Laden supposed to even defeat that faction of pakistan, let alone all of pakistan?

Originally posted by maloy

As for the reaction by US to that- you can bet there will be some confrontation. There is no way US is losing a mojor ally in the Middle East without putting up a fight.

Pakistan in not in the middle east.

Originally posted by hereandnow
Scenarios anyone?

Considering that our ally is really only Musharraf, not the Pakistani people or Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence(ISI), the US doesn't really have any depth of support there.

Al-Qaeda may have ties to Pakistan's ISI.

Osama is already supposedly hiding out on the Pakistan/Afghanistan border.

This all leads up to a horrible possibility. That Osama could be in control of nuclear weapons.

Does the United States immediatley nuke Pakistan the moment that Al-Qaeda/Osama take power?

Pakistanis don't actually like Osama Bin ladin they support him but only against Americas influence in the region but they would never let him run Pakistan or control it.

They support him only in pushing American influence out of Asia,Middle east and out of other muslim countries but they don't support him in the sense that most people belive they do.

Pakistans nukes are perfectly safe nobody has anything to worry about.

Originally posted by Nygdan

Considering that the ISI created, trained, and funded the Taliban, yeah, thats a good bet.

Pakistan wasn't the only country helping Afghanistan.

Multiple countries where helping guerilla's in Afghnaistan during the war and even after they did this to create a buffer zone between them and the russians/soviets.

The way you said pakistan created,trainned and funded the Taliban is as if they where the only country doing this type of stuff in Afghanistan so where other countries like China, UAE, America, Britain, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia everybody had there own agenda in the region.

Also don't forget that major support after the war with soviets came from people to Afghanistan mujihideen to use them as a proxy force against the Shia islamic revolution in Iran.

Originally posted by iqonx
The way you said pakistan created,trainned and funded the Taliban is as if they where the only country doing this type of stuff in Afghanistan

I don't think that I implied that. I was saying that, given that al-qaida is soldered at the joints to the taliban, that there must be people in the ISI that have solid connections to people in al-qaida, because the taliban, in particular, was a creature of the ISI.

If Pakistan cuts the puppet strings, then hopefully they can start a path towards peace and possibly cooperation with India. If everyone in Pakistan and India were educated on the main force behind their separation (British) then perhaps they would unite together against the western forces that created their demise.

If Pakistan cuts the puppet strings, then hopefully they can start a path towards peace and possibly cooperation with India.

That's about as likely to happen as Israel and Hezbollah living peacefully together.

i already started this thread topic two days before this one - refer here

politics.abovetopsecret.com...'

I feel like it's been kidnapped!

refer to my thread please

I feel like it's been kidnapped!

Hey, sorry - I didn't see your post.

Maybe you could paste your original post into this thread?

Originally posted by hereandnow
Considering that our ally is really only Musharraf

I would like to point out that Musharraf is not elected by the people, he is a dictator who has seized control with arms.

How's that for an ally of the "best democracy of the world"?

It is those double standards that make everyone hate America.

Here and now,

Here is my original post on the same topic. Im pasting it here to contribute to the wider debate on the subject matter at hand. I sorta went abit deeper into the ramifications of such an event. Read on and enjoy.....

"What if there was a Terrorist Coup in Pakistan?

G'day all,

I'd like to throw a theory up in the air here for discussion on the realistic possibility of the following happening and the repercussions for the entire world, mid-east conflict included.

" What if there were an Islamic Al-qaeda and Taliban Coup-de-tet in Pakistan overnight ? "

Just say that the above situation did happen; imagine the repercussions? Pakistan would become a terrorist nation with access to nukes and the delivery means of launching them. They could and would effectively bring into being their dreamed of "Islamic Caliphate" that would include Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Syria, Saudi and Emirates, Iraq, Egypt, Somalia (I think); basically there would be a huge land mass that would become Isalmic, militant and Nuclear......just think for a second the repercussions of this.

It would be like an Isalmic superpower and I'm sure they would be willing to flex their muscle, at first probably taking on smaller nations in their path towards Indoneasia, the worlds largest muslim nation by population. Imagine the threat this would pose to Australia.

Not only this, but they would set their sights on India and the disputed Kashmir region.

And how could we forget Israel. This Islamic caliphate would totaly annihialate Israel and anyone else who would even put foward a protest, the likes of Europe for example. Russia wouldnt be touched as they are supplying arms to the Isalmic nations and if anything will just walk into Europe and take it over after it had been destroyed by the Caliphate.

The only hope in this situation would be China, for China itslef has their own problems with muslims in their regional areas and could become a situation with the USA where "my enemies enemy makes him my friend" or something like that.

The Chinese would have to combine with the USA and what was left of Europe to drive out the Islamic threat from the world.

A situation like this would without a doubt involve many nuclear weapons and exchanges on both side and the damage to the world population and our environment would be severe and irrepairable and totaly change the way the survivors would live for centuries to come.

What are your thoughts on this scenario?

It s realistic and could happen at anytime, and would seriously destabilise world affairs.

Originally posted by hereandnow
Scenarios anyone?

Considering that our ally is really only Musharraf, not the Pakistani people or Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence(ISI), the US doesn't really have any depth of support there.

Al-Qaeda may have ties to Pakistan's ISI.

Osama is already supposedly hiding out on the Pakistan/Afghanistan border.

This all leads up to a horrible possibility. That Osama could be in control of nuclear weapons.

Does the United States immediatley nuke Pakistan the moment that Al-Qaeda/Osama take power?

Then obviously he would have a couple of nukes ( anyone know the exact number) maybe 35. He could then do what he wanted, but then the US would hit back.....so whats the point, inflict as much death as he could on Jews and Americans?

It is those double standards that make everyone hate America

Please define "everyone"?

so whats the point, inflict as much death as he could on Jews and Americans?

That's correct. And that confirms for him a quick trip to paradise where he can then collect his Islamic reward of 72 raisins.

We, the United States, have been able to leverage tensions between India and Pakistan to our advantage. Whomever replaces Musharef will have to circumvent these same constarints.

Joseph

OMG!!! LOL What an unrealistic thought. OBL taking over Pakistan is like Taiwan taking over China. This thread is a waste of space. Try to keep it a little real on ATS...

[edit on 3-4-2008 by hitman666]

[edit on 3-4-2008 by hitman666]