Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: IAMTAT

With a " Rebel Yell " They Want MORE , MORE , MORE........

originally posted by: IAMTAT

originally posted by: AndyFromMichigan

originally posted by: IAMTAT
Does anyone know if the Pentagon leaks contradict the US government/administration line that Ukraine is winning?

From what I've read, they most definitely do. Apparently, Russian casualties are far lower than what is being reported. (Honestly, anyone with any sense should have suspected all along that those numbers were propaganda.) And the Pentagon expects Ukraine to lose, unless they ramp this up to World War III.

PROOF the administration is totally lying to us about the war.

The documents also reveal that Ukrainian forces are in dire straits. According to the documents, there have been a total of 16,000-17,500 Russian casualties and as many as 71,000 Ukrainian casualties.

General Mark Milley stated publicly in November that Russia had lost well over 100,000 soldiers. And these documents aren’t even old. According to New York Times reporter David Sanger, the documents were mere weeks old at the time of the leak.

simonateba.substack.com...

I've said it before: The US government was just uncritically parroting whatever drivel the Ukrainian propaganda people put out. The leaks reveal that they knew is was BS all along.

I've been following this war as closely as I can on Liveuamap. The war is very one-sided, but in Russia's favor, not Ukraine's. The artillery attacks are probably a couple dozen to one in Russia's favor. That alone tells you that the casualty figures are likely to be much higher for Ukraine than for Russia.

Also, there have been various signs that Ukraine is starting to run short on manpower. More & more, the pictures of Ukrainian troops are showing older guys, and reports are surfacing that in Kiev they're basically drafting every man they can lay their hands on. It's the same sort of situation that Germany was in toward the end of WWII, and that the South was in toward the end of the Civil War.

I don't have any particular love for Russia, but I'm realistic. All evidence -- not statements from our leaders, but observable evidence -- says that Russia is winning.

originally posted by: IAMTAT

originally posted by: AndyFromMichigan

originally posted by: IAMTAT
Does anyone know if the Pentagon leaks contradict the US government/administration line that Ukraine is winning?

From what I've read, they most definitely do. Apparently, Russian casualties are far lower than what is being reported. (Honestly, anyone with any sense should have suspected all along that those numbers were propaganda.) And the Pentagon expects Ukraine to lose, unless they ramp this up to World War III.

PROOF the administration is totally lying to us about the war.

"The documents also reveal that Ukrainian forces are in dire straits. According to the documents, there have been a total of 16,000-17,500 Russian casualties and as many as 71,000 Ukrainian casualties.

General Mark Milley stated publicly in November that Russia had lost well over 100,000 soldiers. And these documents aren’t even old. According to New York Times reporter David Sanger, the documents were mere weeks old at the time of the leak."

simonateba.substack.com...

There may well be lies we are told about the war, in fact I expect we are told numerous lies and other propaganda, from all sides, that's the nature of an active war. However I don't think what you have cited about deaths is evidence of a lie by Mark Milley.

Read GAOTU789's post from April 10 talking about a low number of confirmed Russian deaths using a rigorous standard from mediazona, and a higher estimate, where he thinks the truth lies somewhere in the middle around maybe 100,000 and that may be in the right ballpark or it could even be somewhat higher as Mark Milley suggested:

originally posted by: GAOTU789
So I was watching a few video's last night and came across this one...

And after reading the link that Carpy provided about the dude counting Wagner graves, I thought I'd explain how I come up with my estimates on losses/casualties. We had that other poster who made the ridiculous claim of it was 9 or 10 to 1, Ukrainian vs Russian losses. And never provided a source except, its on the internet bro. lol.

One of the sources I follow to keep track of losses on the Russian side is the Mediazona/BBC collab that tracks publicly available deaths attributed to the war. The dude in Carpy's BBC link was part of that.

zona-media.translate.goog...

The methodology is pretty rigorous for open source material and they only update every couple of weeks. Latest totals is 19688. I use that as the very bottom floor and the most conservative number for # of dead. I use the Ukrainian official numbers as the absolute upper ceiling, last numbers being around 180K. And remember, Mediazona/BBC don't count LPR/DPR losses as well.

So I take those two numbers and split it down the middle, leaving about 100K dead.

So a dated mediazona document could easily show 16,000-17,500 and I don't know where the leaked figures came from but that could be one possible source, though I think almost everyone would agree that or even the more recent 19,688 confirmed Russian deaths is almost certainly way below the actual number of Russian deaths at this point.

In fact one of the analysts found a Russian document last year that looked pretty official that tallied up approximately 50,000 Russians killed (it had an exact number near that but I don't remember it), and I thought that looked pretty credible. That approximately 50,000 Russians killed in a Russian document was months and months ago. So GAOTU789's ballpark guesstimate of 100,000 Russians killed is entirely within the realm of credibility. and it's also in the ballpark of Mark Milley's "over 100000" comment.

14 April Update

🟇 Russian elite forces are diluting their combat effectiveness with poorly trained mobilized personnel and volunteers due to high causalities sustained in Ukraine.

🟇 Russian forces continued limited offensive operations in the Kreminna area as Ukrainian forces targeted rear areas in Luhansk Oblast.

🟇 Russian forces continued to advance in Bakhmut and conduct ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

🟇 The Kremlin reportedly continues to use private military companies (PMCs) and nationalist networks to support its force generation campaigns.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: IAMTAT

Are you really that gullible? When you see a number you need to use your brain and not just your fingers to click and post. You want freedom, but that will never happen if you don't free your mind first of all.

Just to be clear, 17,500 casualties would be only 43 per day. Now think about the nature of this war going on, the dimensions and how much of different types of ammunition is used, how many vehicles are lost etc.

The discussion of "winning or losing" is too simplistic.

In the modern era (I mean "modern" in a broad sense), most wars have not seen absolute defeat of one side. Outcomes like World War II in which three powers were absolutely defeated are outlier events.

For Ukraine, the best outcome they can hope for is to restore the prewar borders. They may wish to run the Russian military out of the Crimea, but that will be a tall order, and not just for military reasons.

Russia's situation is different because Putin's personal survival is at stake. As long as he holds power, Russia will not stand down or even seriously negotiate. The Russians might be able to conduct war long enough to force Ukraine to give up large amounts of territory, or other influences may force them to back off.

It is very possible that an interim outcome could occur in which Ukraine loses some territory but not all that is currently occupied by Russia.

The possible outcomes are many, and naked "win/lose" results are unlikely for either side.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

I foresee a poor outcome from the war in Ukraine. If Russia faces successive battlefield defeats in Ukraine and is seen alongside Finland and Sweden joining NATO, Putin's regime will suffer additional domestic pressures. Those pressures from the Wagner Group, hyper supporters of Putin's ideology, senior Russian military commanders, and the intel community counterparts attempt to overthrow Putin.

Also, tensions between Moscow and ethnic Russians, who bear the brunt of the fighting in Ukraine, might flare up.

Moreover, Russia might face a second civil war if Putin's regime falls or faces coup attempts. Under those circumstances, China might invade Siberia under the guise of liberation.

But for now, there isn't room for a Korean War-style armistice in Ukraine for two reasons. First, Russia doesn't recognise Ukraine's right to exist and wants to wipe that country off the map. Second, there is no reason for the Ukrainians to either give up territory to Russia and nor is there any reason for them to trust Russia to uphold a related peace agreement.

Lastly, concerning Ukraine retaking Crimea, there is a low possibility of the Russians finding military and logistical competency which would prevent that occurrence. But that occurrence relies on eliminating institutional corruption from the Russian armed forces and industry.

Otherwise, the Ukrainians would require increased amounts of international assistance, logistical upgrades, and two or three successful counter-offensives to consider restoring their pre-2014 borders.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Putin is training Belarus pilots in the employment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons

www.msn.com...

This is another provocation

Would Putin force his stooge Lukashenko to do his dirty work if it came to nuclear weapons ??

originally posted by: Cutepants
a reply to: IAMTAT

Are you really that gullible? When you see a number you need to use your brain and not just your fingers to click and post. You want freedom, but that will never happen if you don't free your mind first of all.

Just to be clear, 17,500 casualties would be only 43 per day. Now think about the nature of this war going on, the dimensions and how much of different types of ammunition is used, how many vehicles are lost etc.

So you're saying we should believe everything the government tells us and ignore the leaked classified Pentagon docs.
Sure thing...the government never lies.

RUSSIA-RUSSIA-RUSSIA
Russia blew up Nordstream
WMDs in Iraq
Pee tapes
Hunter's Laptop From Hell

originally posted by: firerescue
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Putin is training Belarus pilots in the employment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons

www.msn.com...

This is another provocation

Would Putin force his stooge Lukashenko to do his dirty work if it came to nuclear weapons ??

Your link is about SpaceX, not Belarus pilots, but that is an interesting question. Lukashenko might agree to the training, but would he actually give the order to use real nukes on Putin's request? I don't know.

Putin may not even be able to get the Kremlin folks in charge of launching the nukes to execute a first strike launch of nukes.

Would Russian military follow order to use nukes? ‘Questionable,’ says ex-U.S. NATO envoy

Look`s like from MadMax movie ....nope it`s Russian stuff in Ukraine


Russian 25mm 2M-3M naval gun emplaced on a Russian ATS-59G artillery tractor.

originally posted by: Kenzo


Look`s like from MadMax movie ....nope it`s Russian stuff in Ukraine


Russian 25mm 2M-3M naval gun emplaced on a Russian ATS-59G artillery tractor.

2m-3m entered service in the mid-1950s. Automatic cannon are effective, but the rate of fire of this thing is around 480 rounds per minute. If that rig doesn't have a truck full of ammo following it, it won't get off anything more than a few bursts.

Data on system

Cheers

originally posted by: IAMTAT
So you're saying we should believe everything the government tells us and ignore the leaked classified Pentagon docs.
Sure thing...the government never lies.

I think it's best not to trust any single number or document, better to compare them and try to figure out what is going on that way. It's OK if you trust the pentagon, but I don't. And even then it's a fact that there are more than one version of those documents.

Why do you think I want to ignore them? Haven't I proved that I'm interested in them, they're pretty much all I've been posting about lately.

And why do you think I want you to believe everything the government tells us? Maybe you're getting me mixed up with someone else?

BBC News - Meet the hacker armies on Ukraine's cyber front line
www.bbc.co.uk...

Interesting piece about the cyber warfare going on.

"When Russia initiated its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a second, less visible battle in cyberspace got under way. The BBC's cyber correspondent Joe Tidy travelled to Ukraine to speak to those fighting the cyber war, and found the conflict has blurred the lines between those working for the military and the unofficial activist hackers.

When I went to visit Oleksandr in his one-bedroom flat in central Ukraine, I found a typically spartan set-up common to many hackers.

No furniture or home comforts - not even a TV - just a powerful computer in one corner of his bedroom and a powerful music system in the other.

From here, Oleksandr has helped temporarily disable hundreds of Russian websites, disrupted services at dozens of banks and defaced websites with pro-Ukraine messages.

He is one of the most prominent hackers in the vigilante group, the IT Army of Ukraine - a volunteer hacking network with a Telegram group nearly 200,000-strong.

For more than a year, he has devoted himself to causing as much chaos in Russia as possible."

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

25 mm auto cannon were used on 1960's torpedo (P6) and Komar missile boats

15 April Update

Summary: Continued fighting around/in Bakhmut and Kreminna.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Was doing my weekly tour of Youtube last night and came across this...

www.youtube.com...
( can't get the vid to embed for some reason )

I had read about the captured manual when it became public but since the only thing I could find online at the time was all pdf's in Russian, I didn't bother with it to much. But Battle Order does an amazing job of dissecting it.

If you spend any time watching Russian or Ukrainian battle footage, you can actually see this in practice. There is a few things that jumped out at me. The fact that in 90% of the videos, you never see smoke deployed in prepaeration of attacks.

And second is the fact the Russian assault squads are expected to push through their own cover fire, making the possibility of FF incidents quite high. Which if you spend time reading Telegram, you'll see plenty of reports from Russian Infantry of exactly that happening.

It's pretty interesting to read the break down of Russian assault doctrine having watched it play out in real time up this point.

Seem like old rusty junk


Captured Russian T-62M tour by Shawshank Redemption.





It can still kill thought....but it does look old

a reply to: Kenzo

Oh yeah, it can kill. People are still occasionally killed in France and Belgium when old World War One munitions are dug up or struck by plows etc.

The -62s and -55s can provide fire support for the infantry. They are older, simpler tanks to operate, which means Russia does not have to invest as much time in training crews for those vehicles. So if they get blown up, Russia will just put another barely trained crew into another tank that has been sitting in storage and go from there.

The other thing is, if Russia were to blow a hole in Ukrainian lines, old tanks or not, the Ukrainians would not want those things rolling around in their rear areas shooting up supply dumps and headquarters bivouacs. That kind of action can trigger routs.

Cheers

16 April Update

* The Wagner Group may be attempting to force mobilized Russian personnel to sign contracts with Wagner, possibly in an effort to offset Wagner’s losses in Ukraine. . . . Mobilized personnel from Moscow and Ivanovo oblasts alleged in a public complaint released on April 16 that the Wagner Group forced 170 mobilized personnel to sign contracts with Wagner.

* Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks south of Kreminna. . . . The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna), Hryhorivka (9km south of Kreminna), Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna), and Spirne (25km south of Kreminna). A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Torske (14km west of Kreminna) and Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna) and that Ukrainian forces partially recaptured positions near Bilohorivka.

* Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line. . . . The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted attacks in Bakhmut and that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian forces west of Bakhmut near Khromove (immediately west) and Ivanivske (6km west). . . . The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Avdiivka, Novokalynove (8km north of Avdiivka), Sieverne (5km west of Avdiivka), Vodyane (8km southwest of Avdiivka), Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka), and Marinka (27km southwest of Avdiivka).

* Russian forces reportedly intensified the rate of artillery strikes in southern Ukraine. . . . Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces have increased artillery fire on the west (right) bank of Kherson Oblast and are continuing to use guided aerial bombs to strike civilian infrastructure. . . . The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces conducted 25 S-300 strikes on Zaporizhia and Mykolaiv oblasts throughout the day.

More at URL above.

Cheers