Aleksandr Dvornikov: Russian general from the Syrian war fame now heads Russia's war effort in Ukrai

This isn't exactly what the West wants to see Russia do. There will be no cease-fire soon with this guy on board

It's is gonna get worse before it gets better. All signs point to a renewed eastern offensive in eastern Ukraine. Russia isn't going to give up the territory they have any time soon and will probably try to expand its boundaries where possible.

The Russian general appointed by Vladimir Putin to lead efforts to reboot the invasion of Ukraine played a prominent role in the Syrian war, where forces under his command were responsible for widespread abuses against the civilian population and were frequently accused of committing crimes against humanity.

Gen Aleksandr Dvornikov, 60, has been described as an “old school” general and a “blood and soil nationalist”, trained in Soviet military doctrines that view obliterating civilian targets as a means of gaining battlefield momentum.

A career military officer, he has risen steadily through the ranks since starting as a platoon commander in 1982. He fought during the second war in Chechnya and took several top positions before being placed in charge of the Russian troops in Syria.

and there is this from

www.understandingwar.org...

US DoD statements that Russia retains 80-85 percent of its original mobilized combat power unintentionally exaggerate the Russian military’s current capabilities to fight. Such statements taken in isolation are inherently ambiguous, for one thing. They could mean that 80-85 percent of the Russian units originally mobilized to fight in Ukraine remain intact and ready for action while 15-20 percent have been destroyed. Were that the case, Russia would have tremendous remaining combat power to hurl against Ukraine. Or, they could mean that all the Russian units mobilized to invade Ukraine have each suffered 15-20 percent casualties, which would point to a greatly decreased Russian offensive capacity, as such casualty levels severely degrade the effectiveness of most military units. The reality, as DoD briefers and other evidence make clear, is more complicated, and paints a grim picture for Russian commanders contemplating renewing major offensive operations.

Ya well the other guy wasn't exactly the peace loving sort either. This guy will murder civilians, send inadequate gear and people into the field, and have to deal with the spring mud. Hopefully he visits the front lines and gets a lesson learned.

I wouldn't want that job.

originally posted by: radaghast5
Ya well the other guy wasn't exactly the peace loving sort either. This guy will murder civilians, send inadequate gear and people into the field, and have to deal with the spring mud. Hopefully he visits the front lines and gets a lesson learned.

I wouldn't want that job.

This isn't a yay! Russia thread, it's what is happening militarily thread. The point is Russia doesn't assign this guy unless it's gonna be for the long haul. As much as we all want a Ukrainian victory and Russia's withdrawal that isn't likely.

Regardless it would be foolish at this time to think Russia is through pummeling eastern Ukraine.

and if you want to expand into the geopolitical landscape a little bit, never-ending war drums keep the MIC happy

originally posted by: putnam6

originally posted by: radaghast5
Ya well the other guy wasn't exactly the peace loving sort either. This guy will murder civilians, send inadequate gear and people into the field, and have to deal with the spring mud. Hopefully he visits the front lines and gets a lesson learned.

I wouldn't want that job.

This isn't a yay! Russia thread, it's what is happening militarily thread. The point is Russia doesn't assign this guy unless it's gonna be for the long haul. As much as we all want a Ukrainian victory and Russia's withdrawal that isn't likely.

Regardless it would be foolish at this time to think Russia is through pummeling eastern Ukraine.

and if you want to expand into the geopolitical landscape a little bit, never-ending war drums keep the MIC happy

From what I hear, Putin planned the operation himself with input from only one or two close advisors. Among other reasons, I think that's because this is a "Special Military Operation" (SMO) as opposed to a normal military operation, where the general staff would have been involved in the planning. One of the characteristics of this SMO that has been remarked upon several times by western intel sources was that there was no single theater commander in charge of the whole operation--as there always is in major western military operations (Eisenhower in Europe in WWII, MacArthur in the Far East in WWII, Norman Schwartzkopf in Desert Storm, etc., etc.). The assignment of this general is apparently designed to fix that problem, and it probably will.

And you're right, he will probably try to slice off the provinces he wants in East Ukraine from the rest of Ukraine with a scorched Earth campaign like Sherman's march to the sea.

However, he will still have the problems of poorly motivated conscript troops, poorly built and maintained equipment, Ukrainian mud, and the fact that time is not on his side (I think he's burning up money and materiel at an unsustainable rate). Supposedly, Putin wants this whole thing to be over in about a month. He can blow up a lot of infrastructure and rape, kill, and mutilate a lot of civilians in that time, but I really don't foresee anything like a victory for Russia in the next month.

I believe Russia wants whole Ukrainian coastline and shutting Ukraine´s trading through sea. Russia do not have much coastline to Europe through Gulf of Finland either through Black sea. Russia has lot of coast in northern part of Russia but it is sparsely populated.

originally posted by: dollukka
I believe Russia wants whole Ukrainian coastline and shutting Ukraine´s trading through sea. Russia do not have much coastline to Europe through Gulf of Finland either through Black sea. Russia has lot of coast in northern part of Russia but it is sparsely populated.

If Russia succeeds in Ukraine , why the would they want to STOP trade ?

a reply to: putnam6

Bet Ukrainian SIGINT will be watching for this guy's comms.

Cheers

I believe Dvornikov was already in charge of the south and east. So technically not that much changed, the northern front just doesn't exist anymore. But none the less, having a single guy in charge could help when it comes to distributing resources.

a reply to: Gothmog

In order to make Ukraine less capable of fighting them in the future

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: putnam6

Bet Ukrainian SIGINT will be watching for this guy's comms.

Cheers

How can they not have secure communications yet? are they just sloppy? is our tech better than their tech?

www.spiegel.de... e

Russian soldiers discussed atrocities against civilians over the radio
The images of murdered civilians from Bucha shock the world. According to SPIEGEL information, the BND recorded the radio traffic of suspected perpetrators. Accordingly, the brutal acts are part of the strategy of Putin's army.

a reply to: putnam6

The longer the conflict persists the mor Ukraine can solidify is defence position and secure more resources from friendly nations.

Russia has already failed in so many ways in their invasion. Adding a new military head won’t make a difference.

a reply to: putnam6

Putnam,

No idea. I think they depend on a particular type of cell telephone network for secure comms that they can't access (or doesn't offer service) at the locations they are in Ukraine. My question is, what happened to the secure tactical radio networks, or did those never exist?

It is like their substitution of drone flights for on the ground reconnaissance. Drone flights are a great -supplement-, but in no way a replacement for motivated soldiers ensuring a column's flanks are secure and that the column isn't proceeding into an ambush.

Of course, outside of their system, we'll never know for sure. But it looks like corruption went a long way to weakening basic capabilities in the Russian army.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

For some reason, alot of the secure communications the Russians are using rely on the 3G network. When they assaulted Kharkiv, they also targeted 3G towers. Turns out this disrupted their own communications lol. I'm not sure why they chose to rely on 3G for some of their communications.

A lot of the telecomm infrastructure in Ukraine was owned by Russians. I think initially, the Russians decided that they would try to keep the infrastructure intact, because they thought they would take over the Ukraine much faster. It could also be argued that they left more infrastructure intact because it allows them to gather intelligence. It is also much easier for both sides to hack each other because they use similar network technologies.

This ties into OP's question. Our tech is better and they are sloppy. I've seen numerous videos of Russian soldiers using civilian equipment and cellphones to communicate. These are by no means secure and is why we are able to listen in so easliy.

I have also seen Ukrainians captured a Krasukha-4, which is an electronic warfare system. I'm sure that is a goldmine. Plus the Ukrainians have the support of AWACS.

a reply to: putnam6

You have Delta,and other elite forces on the ground in Ukraine i assume Russia will be doing the same in Ukraine.

a reply to: putnam6

I would be cautious of trusting anything that spiegel claims there were a number of stories that turned out false from Syria when they reported it.

the BND recorded the radio traffic of suspected perpetrators. Accordingly, the brutal acts are part of the strategy of Putin's army.

Like how it turns out that the radio recordings of Ukrainian soldiers swearing to the Russian ship before getting killed weren't killed at all?

a reply to: putnam6

The images of murdered civilians from Bucha shock the wo

For civilians to be found after the Russian forces left? something about Bucha doesn't seem right. We had been told that there would be false flags.

a reply to: vNex92

What about Bucha seems off to you?

originally posted by: vNex92
a reply to: putnam6

The images of murdered civilians from Bucha shock the wo

For civilians to be found after the Russian forces left? something about Bucha doesn't seem right. We had been told that there would be false flags.

How? They left quickly. They failed at burning bodies of people they had killed when they first occupied the area. The bodies were left in piles.