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The Ministerial Advisory Committee (MAC) on Covid-19 has written to Health Minister Joe Phaahla, recommending that the quarantining of contacts be stopped as it is no longer viable in the current social and economic climate.
Graphs of the latest Covid surge in South Africa have been close to vertical, and the culprit is clear: Within a few weeks, the omicron variant has gone from less than 1 percent of cases to more than 90 percent. In Gauteng province, where I live, 1 in 500 people is currently infected with omicron. Given how many asymptomatic cases go undetected, the real number is probably closer to 1 in 50. With such numbers, contact tracing and quarantines become all but meaningless. Even the individual goal of avoiding infection comes to seem quixotic. Therefore, rather than trying to suppress omicron, the South African government is now assuming, essentially, that everyone will get this virus. Although the country retains some mild restrictions on indoor and outdoor gatherings, unmasked diners fill restaurants. Shift workers throw down after-work pints in informal taverns.
The committee said testing was highly skewed toward detecting symptomatic cases, while the vast majority of cases are asymptomatic and go undetected.
"In addition, among the small proportion of symptomatic cases, testing is far from universal, since patients may not seek testing when their symptoms are mild and when testing would be burdensome and expensive. Furthermore, the SARS-CoV-2 test sensitivity is suboptimal, sometimes leading to false-negative results.
"The inability of the current testing strategy to identify the bulk of cases is illustrated by the high SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity rates seen across multiple provinces in serosurveys, implying that only a fraction of cases (perhaps one in 10, or even less) are ever diagnosed."
It added:
It stands to reason that if the vast majority of cases are not diagnosed, then the vast majority of case contacts are also not diagnosed. This means that quarantining and contact tracing are of negligible public health benefit in the South African setting.edit on 19-12-2021 by putnam6 because: (no reason given)edit on 19-12-2021 by putnam6 because: (no reason given)
originally posted by: Waterglass
a reply to: network dude
It my opinion that the Government of South Africa is doing the best for their people. The USA has, was and will be for sale to the highest bidder and has been since WWII.
originally posted by: Waterglass
a reply to: putnam6
Not only common sense but pragmatic and they seem to try to er on the side of the public.