Update on the Senate and the House

As everyone knows, in the Senate, the Trump Party is going into 2021 50-48 with two seats undecided. If we pick both of them up it is a 52-48 Trumpist majority. If we pick up on, it's a 51-49 Trumpist majority. If we pick up neither it's a 50-50 split with the Vice-President casting the deciding vote.

The House has been less discussed. After the major Democrat losses, their majority is trimmed to 219-204 with 12 races undecided.

Here are three scaled possibilities:

1. Best case for Democrats: they win every uncalled seat: 231-204 Democratic majority (total loss of one seat for Democrats)

2. Best case for Trumpists: they win every uncalled seat: 219-216 Democratic majority (total loss of 13 seats for Democrats)

3. Trumpists win every seat they're currently leading in and Democrats win every seat they're currently leading in; two dead-even seats break for the incumbents (1 D, 1 R): 222-213 Democratic majority (total loss of 10 seats for Democrats)

Looking ahead to 2022

Since the end of World War II, the presidential party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections. The magnitude of Democratic losses, over time, tends to be higher, and those of the party formerly known as Republican less.

If we assume, however, the dead average under scenario three, we could realistically expect the 117th Congress elected in 2022 to have a
242-193 Trumpist majority.

If we assume, instead, the average of Democratic losses since Clinton, we would expect the 117th Congress elected in 2022 to have a 262-173 Trumpist majority. That, however, seems incredibly far-fetched and unrealistic based on the current electoral map.

As soon as you said "Trumpists" you delegitimized yourself.

Carry on.

originally posted by: HalWesten
As soon as you said "Trumpists" you delegitimized yourself.

Carry on.

Trumpist just means someone who supports Trump , Leftists support the Left.
If Leftist is OK why is Trumist seen as derogatory ?

a reply to: gortex

What about "the Trump Party"? Pretty chilling.

originally posted by: HalWesten
As soon as you said "Trumpists" you delegitimized yourself.

Carry on.

Irrespective of the word Trumpists being used the op is just a factual rundown of how the house and senate races stand today. What is there to be delegitimized?

a reply to: WildBillX

So... You don't want to be called Republicans anymore? Are you officially declaring that you are the party of Trump?

You can try and go by past trends to guess what is going to happen in 2022 but I would be careful of that. Just this past election there were trends overturned. Biden is the second president to win the election without Florida since 1964 and if IIRC Biden is only the 4th president in history to win against an incumbent president seeking re-election.

If you really want to get a pulse on what 2022 might look like we only have to look as far as January with the runoff races.

a reply to: WildBillX

My prediction... or rather wishful thinking ... is that the Democrat collision splits up over the next 4 years. Not that it will make a difference in presidential races; those to the left will still vote to the left. But it could lead to a more dynamic congress where not every issue can be broken down along party lines. Perhaps even a major 3rd party could emerge out of the right side of the Democratic collision picking up some moderate Republicans.

originally posted by: MonkeyFishFrog
a reply to: WildBillX

So... You don't want to be called Republicans anymore? Are you officially declaring that you are the party of Trump?

You can try and go by past trends to guess what is going to happen in 2022 but I would be careful of that. Just this past election there were trends overturned. Biden is the second president to win the election without Florida since 1964 and if IIRC Biden is only the 4th president in history to win against an incumbent president seeking re-election.

If you really want to get a pulse on what 2022 might look like we only have to look as far as January with the runoff races.

And this is the first election since for ever that the country was scared of a pandemic leading to many irregularities ij the voting process.

I wouldn't put much stock in what happened in this election.

originally posted by: gortex

originally posted by: HalWesten
As soon as you said "Trumpists" you delegitimized yourself.

Carry on.

Trumpist just means someone who supports Trump , Leftists support the Left.
If Leftist is OK why is Trumist seen as derogatory ?

Pelosist ?

Cortezist ? or Alexandriest ?

Bideners ? Bidenist ?

Hmmm they just don't have the same ring do they ? Leftist it is .

Trumpist , lol it does have something to it interesting there is no one on the left with enough character in there name/self to carry the entire party .

Another "infected" poster from the TDS pandemic

a reply to: DanDanDat

Well that's my thought exactly. We don't know how the pandemic is going to affect the rest of Biden's first term. Though I think it is safe to say that Trump's lackadaisical approach to it might have been the driving force to get him out of office.

Spanish Flu only killed 1% of the world population but that 1% greatly affected country's economies and overall GDP for years afterwards. The impacts were felt from all corners and all industries. If you do not have a healthy workforce you don't have a workforce.

It'll be at least 10-20 years before we finally see the full impact of this virus on all aspects of our existence.

originally posted by: gortex

originally posted by: HalWesten
As soon as you said "Trumpists" you delegitimized yourself.

Carry on.

Trumpist just means someone who supports Trump , Leftists support the Left.
If Leftist is OK why is Trumist seen as derogatory ?

You haven't figured out that Leftist is meant to be derogatory?

originally posted by: asabuvsobelow
Pelosist ?

Cortezist ? or Alexandriest ?

Bideners ? Bidenist ?

Hmmm they just don't have the same ring do they ? Leftist it is .

Trumpist , lol it does have something to it interesting there is no one on the left with enough character in there name/self to carry the entire party .

Well, there were many called "Bernie Bros", so in some ways they had one who was willing to be tossed aside by them. /shrug

It's those damn liberals. Like seriously, they don't want to vote for anything, just against everything. Don't want to put up a candidate, just vote against one they don't like.

Like a child who hates cake, but loves frosting. So they say no cake for everyone.

originally posted by: Grimpachi

originally posted by: gortex

originally posted by: HalWesten
As soon as you said "Trumpists" you delegitimized yourself.

Carry on.

Trumpist just means someone who supports Trump , Leftists support the Left.
If Leftist is OK why is Trumist seen as derogatory ?

You haven't figured out that Leftist is meant to be derogatory?

I understand that it is meant to be derogatory bit it is in fact just a word that describes a political view , it doesn't surprise me that some here don't understand that.

a reply to: gortex
So you support deragatory terms, just ones you don't like, like maybe a certain n word or t word?

a reply to: gortex

Are so-called 'Trumpists' Republican? Is that what he means?

How come some Republicans hate Trump? ( I will admit - these are mostly RINOs - Republicans in name only, but they DO exist!)

I just think it is a silly word choice by the OP hahah

a reply to: gortex

Its not derogatory. Its that it is not an appropriate description of the reality. The majority of the GOP has shown themselves to not be Trumpers, they just play nice to win their elections.

First 4 replies of this thread have to do with the trivial idea of calling Republicans Trumpists.

Obsession with irrelevant words that illicit an emotion.

The absolute state of the left.

a reply to: bigfatfurrytexan

Its not derogatory. Its that it is not an appropriate description of the reality. The majority of the GOP has shown themselves to not be Trumpers, they just play nice to win their elections.

I thought the GOP and Trump were two separate entities which is why Trumpists (people who follow the doctrine of Trump) support him , he is his own man not controlled buy a party.