Sweden: Coronavirus and the Concept of 'Trade-Offs'

Here is another interesting article about Sweden and their battle against COVID-19. We have seen arguments on both sides saying Sweden screwed up or they handled this whole event correctly. It will be interesting after many of the countries in lock down get a second wave of infections as they open up especially if Sweden does not get a second wave. After the dust settles I would expect if Sweden comes out of this better than those who have killed their economies there are gonna be some serious questions that will need to be addressed .

Sweden, unlike its Scandinavian neighbors, made different decisions to deal with the coronavirus pandemic. It issued no mandatory orders. It did not require its citizens to shelter at home. True, as of May 4, more Swedes had contracted and died from the coronavirus (2,679 total deaths, a rate of 263.08 per 1 million people) than people in Norway (211, rate of 39.7) and Denmark (484, rate of 83.49), but fewer when adjusted for its population size compared with the U.K. (28,446 deaths, a rate of 427.83), Spain (25,264, rate of 540.71), France (24,864, rate of 371.18) and Italy (28,884, rate of 477.96).

It also remains to be seen whether, in the long run, the actions taken by other Scandinavian countries will result in fewer lives lost. This is because Sweden appears to be achieving "herd immunity" faster than other countries and because experts expect another spike in cases when lockdowns are lifted. Furthermore, the rationale for the lockdowns is to prevent a country's health care system from being overburdened. If that is goal, Sweden has achieved it. Its hospitals, intensive care units and emergency rooms have not been overburdened, and the country has had no shortage of medical equipment.

www.realclearpolitics.com...

a reply to: 727Sky


All countries have applied various forms of trade offs between mitigating the effects of the virus and economic impacts.

So far Sweden has had a high number of deaths per capita and it looks like it's economy will do little if any better than most other European nations.

It might be that it produces a lower number of deaths over the long term but unfortunately this won't be clear until this is a historical event rather than a current crisis.

A good thing there are countries that have a different way on dealing with it. This gives data to work with and do better next time such a crisis knocks on the global door. It also says something on how important total souvereighnity is for a country. Nothing good can come out of a "my way or the highway" mentality that creeps into united whatevers. Locals know locals and are better equipt to decide what to do and how to react to threads.

Locking down a scarce populated region because it's out of control in a dencely populated one on the other side of a union is stupid and will weaken local support towards unity and feed anti union sentiments always lurking under the surface. Devide and concuer does not apply if you want to stay united.

I bet the EU will see a lot off new political movements that will promote and push for exitting EU at it's core agenda's after this crisis run it's dissaterous course.

Hurrah to Sweden for their way of doing things. In the end, the outcome of their actions don't realy mitigate the fact that they are a land of the free.

Facts about Covid-19

According to the data from the best studied countries and regions, the lethality of Covid19 averages around 0.2% and is therefore in the range of a strong influenza (flu) and about twenty times lower than originally assumed by the WHO.
The risk of death for the general population at school and working age, even in the global hotspots, mostly lies in the area of ​​a daily drive to work. The risk was initially overestimated because people with mild or no symptoms were not included.

Up to 80% of all test-positive people remain symptom-free. Even among the 70 to 79 year olds, around 60% remain asymptomatic. Over 95% of all people show at most mild symptoms.
Up to a third of all people already have background immunity to Covid19 due to contact with previous corona viruses (i.e. cold viruses).

The median age of the deceased in most countries (including Italy) is over 80 years and only about 1% of the deceased had no serious previous illnesses. The death profile thus essentially corresponds to normal mortality.

In most countries, as many as 50 to 70% of all deaths occurred in nursing homes that do not benefit from a general lockdown. In addition, it is often not clear whether these people really died from Covid19 or from high levels of stress, fear and loneliness.

Up to 50% of all additional deaths were not caused by Covid19, but by the consequences of lockdown, panic and fear. For example, the treatment of heart attacks and strokes decreased by up to 60% because patients no longer ventured into the clinics.
Even with the so-called "Covid19 deaths" it is often not clear whether they died from or with coronaviruses (i.e. from the previous diseases) or were not tested as "suspected cases". However, the official figures often do not reflect these distinctions.

Many media reports that young and healthy people also died from Covid19 turned out to be wrong: Many of these young people either did not die from Covid19, were already seriously ill (e.g. from leukemia), or were 109 instead of 9 years old.
The normal daily overall mortality rate is approximately 8,000 in the United States, approximately 2600 in Germany, approximately 1800 in Italy and approximately 200 in Switzerland. The flu mortality rate in the USA is up to 80,000, in Germany and Italy up to 25,000, and in Switzerland up to 2500 people per winter. Covid19 has not reached these levels in several countries.
Regionally greatly increased mortality rates can be influenced by additional risk factors such as high air pollution and microbial contamination as well as a collapse of the elderly and nursing care through infections, mass panic or lockdown. Special regulations for dealing with the deceased sometimes led to additional bottlenecks in burials.
In countries such as Italy and Spain, and in some cases Great Britain and the USA, flu waves have also led to hospitals being overloaded. Currently, up to 15% of doctors and nurses, even without symptoms, are in quarantine.

The often shown exponential curves with "corona cases" are misleading, since the number of tests also increased exponentially. In most countries, the ratio of positive tests to tests overall (so-called positive rate) remained constant at 5% to 25% or only increased slightly. The spread reached its peak in most countries before the lockdown.
Countries without curfews and no contacts, such as Japan, South Korea and Sweden have not experienced a more negative trend than other countries. Sweden was recently praised by the WHO as an exemplary model and now benefits from high immunity.

The fear of a shortage of ventilators was unjustified. According to pulmonary specialists, invasive ventilation (intubation) of Covid19 patients, which was partly due to fear of the virus, is often counterproductive and additionally damages the lungs.

Contrary to the original assumptions, various studies have shown that there is no evidence of the spread of the virus through aerosols (i.e. particles suspended in the air) or from smear infections (e.g. from door handles, smartphones or the hairdresser).
There is also no scientific basis for the effectiveness of respiratory masks in healthy or asymptomatic persons. Rather, experts warn that such masks interfere with breathing and become “germ-hurlers”.

Many clinics in Europe and the USA remained underutilized and sometimes even had to register short-time work. Numerous surgeries and therapies have been canceled, including “non-essential” organ transplants and cancer examinations.
Several media were caught trying to dramatize the situation in clinics, sometimes even with manipulative images. In general, the dubious reporting of many media maximized fear among the population.

The internationally used virus test kits are prone to errors and can give false positive and false negative results. The official virus test was also not clinically validated due to time pressure and can sometimes also react to other corona viruses.

Numerous internationally renowned experts from the fields of virology, immunology and epidemiology consider the measures taken to be counterproductive and recommend rapid natural immunization of the general population and protection of risk groups. There was never any medical reason for the closure of schools.
Several experts described forced coronavirus vaccines as unnecessary or even dangerous. In fact, the vaccine against the so-called swine flu from 2009 led to severe neurological damage and lawsuits in the millions.

The number of people suffering from unemployment, mental health problems and domestic violence as a result of the measures has skyrocketed worldwide. Several experts assume that the measures will take more lives than the virus itself. According to the UN, millions of people worldwide will experience absolute poverty and famine.

NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden warned that "Corona" is being used for the permanent expansion of worldwide surveillance instruments. The renowned virologist Pablo Goldschmidt spoke of "global media terror" and "totalitarian measures". The British infectiologist John Oxford spoke of a "media epidemic".

Over 500 scientists have warned of "unprecedented surveillance of society" through problematic contact tracking apps. In some countries, this contact tracking is already done directly by the secret service. Worldwide, civilians were monitored by drones and massive police violence in some cases.
Original, with links and sources

And btw:
/ HO Official: Sweden’s Policy of Individual Responsibility “a Model” for the Rest of World

and:

Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic.
medRxiv

I think the reason Sweden went with no lockdown was the low rate of population density. IE. very few close crowded areas. Some densities to think about Sweden 22 per sq. kilometre, Spain 92 per sq. kilo, USA 87 per kilo, Italy 201 per kilo and the UK 270 per kilo.
If anyone wants to correlate these figures it might be the denser the population the higher the infection rate.

a reply to: crayzeed

Just because we in Sweden have large chunks of land where nobody lives in the north do not mean our cities are not dense.

Normally Sweden have 90000 deaths per year. That means 246 persons will on average die every day.

www.statista.com...

According to this page we have 35699 dead this year until April 30. 35699/120=297
If this continue.
297/246=1.21
21% more dead this year than normal.

And there are reports that 30% of Swedes already have had the COVID-19.

a reply to: crayzeed

Yes this! UK, especially London is proper packed. Travelling by public transport to work there is a nightmare, so many people squished into trains and buses. If the UK went the way as Sweden then I reckon London would have been decimated real fast.

a reply to: LittleByLittle

Stockholm has less than a million people and London has nearly 9 million.

It's one thing to take stricter measures in a densely populated area like London or NYC where you have to travel by mass transit and live stacked together into tightly packed apartment blocks, but suburban sprawl and commuter by car is way different and changes the equation yet again as does a rural situation ... as does a small town.

And to think all of those situations absolutely required the same approach was madness.

originally posted by: Dae
a reply to: LittleByLittle

Stockholm has less than a million people and London has nearly 9 million.

The person you quoted talked about density, London & Stockholm has about the same capita per km/2

I think more people here in America are starting to realize that merely "contracting the Covid-19 virus", is not a big deal for the vast majority.

And it's starting to sink in that 244 deaths over a 3 month period, per 1 million citizens, is not worth panicking over.
Ref: www.worldometers.info...

Just follow normal good hygiene, and the odds are better than 99%, that you'll die from something else...hopefully much later in life!

a reply to: carewemust

I think more people here in America are starting to realize that merely "contracting the Covid-19 virus", is not a big deal for the vast majority

It's been said from the very beginning of the debacle some 80% of people will suffer very mildly if at all, how is it Americans are only just figuring this out...

What is that No singing ? Its not over its barly started so 30 % may have had it ( which means a infection rate that is uncountable . which means 70 % have not . Herd immunity kicks in around 80 % or so . As for deaths all people here seam to count is deaths or the 80 % who just get over it .
so lets say .2 % die and 80 % get over it no big deal that means((((((( 19.8 % have complications from it .
So America going by the love boats rates 30 % get it that is 110 MILLION people 80 % get over it that leaves 22 MILLION who have complications and stay sick for a LONG LONG time as the diamond princess STILL has a few sick and a few dieing . S0 22 MILLION people sick for months and years of therapy may be needed .
No big deal hu ? Sweden Is not out of the woods yet and wont be for the same 2 years as the rest of the world .

They are No more right then any other country Including S Korea who did such a great job only a hand full got sick now what keep there country isolated for the next 100 years ? as the virus will NEVER ever go away ?

There is NO right way about even slowing this down and Sweden way well wate 2 months and people stop wearing mask and come fall we will see just how well it works My guess is the world has just got a tast of the results .

But you guys can quite complaining stores are opening as we type and infection rates will keep rising slowly over the summer then fast in the fall and once again you can come here and tell us how its no big deal as Millions get sick and 100 s of thousands die after all in 4 months it went from One death to 80 K in the us and at this point it will only be luck if we stay under 250 k for the YEARS worth . then next year we can start counting all over .

Unless we can convince people to ware mask Every one which will never happen as many already do not then next winter we dont lock down watch the numbers . You all keep forgetting 4 Months from ONE person to 4 million world wide and if your right and its a 100 Million then transmission rates can Not even be measured EVERY one who can get it will end up sick in December .

As for the economy Personally I already dont see how it will recover and now the government is thinking of 2 k per person from well until its over Trillion Hyperinflation and who the heck will run a register when they get 2 k sitting at home .

Honstly Nothing we do may stop this juggernaut . Deaths or the 80 % who dont get it is all you care about mean wile meat plants are at reduced out put farms are having problems delivering food and again its just started .

enjoy your summer next fall we will see . PS id o hope your right thing is virus dont watch tv nore care if you only count the dead and you cant eat what isn't being grown or shipped .

a reply to: midnightstar

There is NO right way about even slowing this down and Sweden way well wate 2 months and people stop wearing mask and come fall we will see just how well it works My guess is the world has just got a tast of the results .

That is crap because the majority of people in Sweden are not using masks in their daily life. I have only seen 1 grocery store where the store clerks wear masks. When I go shopping I do not see the customers wear masks and some old people do not even do social distancing.

And this virus can be contracted thru the eyes also so you are not 100% safe with a normal mask.

There are some old people that are really scared but not all.

ok and what is your point FACT Sweden has at most according to you guys 30 % who have had it ( ovesly its not near that many but i am going by your dream numbers .)
so that still means 70 % WHO HAVE NOT as for mask US most are not wearing them either again what is your point ?
Once again herd immunity wont kick in until 80 % of who can get it DO get it . Really Sweden has not even hit 10 % your dreams of 30 % are just that dreams .
Dont think 3 Million in Sweden sick all at once would not be noticed even if every last case was mild and again even if that was true transmission rates through the roof this winter 2 billion sick by December if THAT transmission rate is true .

You deniers are cutting the ground out of your own feet with transmission rates of 100 to 1 or heck from 1 to a 100 million according to you guys 10,000 to one would be closer to your dreams .
And even then do the math a 100 million out of 7.5 BILLION not even a drop ion the bucket No Sweden is not done nore any one else our only hope is the virus dies off its self which is extremely unlikely but possible .

Really not much humans can do to even slow it down ovesly we cant shut down the world for 2 years and a vacane is unlikly to be in time to do much good .
So in the end who is going to count the sick and the dead I guess you guys will just keep saying but only 1 billion got sick and 5 million died as you guys LOVE pointing out death rates you say Are the same as Spanish flue .
your downplaying it files to factor in the spanish flue killing how many it did world wide and lots more people crowded in citys now

a reply to: midnightstar

If you want to prevent yourself from getting it, your best bet for PPE is to use gloves. You are much more at risk form touching surfaces and then touching your face. Gloves won't prevent you from touching your face, but they do help to remind you to be aware, and you can more easily remove most of the contamination after being in a heavy touch situation (like shopping at an essential business) ... but only if you know how to properly remove PPE.

That's why I let my husband go out most times. He's experienced with laboratory sterile procedure and handling PPE like gloves.

The masks will mainly only help if you are sick to keep you from spreading it around, but if you are sick, you shouldn't be out in the first place.

Common sense ket yes exactly what My point is these post have little to No common sense in them .
Thing is Most people in the US have little to NO common sense just look at these absurd post so much so they even dig the ground from there own downplaying .
at the end of the the day all we can do is use caution as much as possible and hope for the best . For some strange reason I have no clue these people just want to convince them self nothing has changed and that attuted means these people will just keep spreading it as they deni they can get sick regardless of being minor or death dealing pass it around seams to be there moto .

a reply to: midnightstar

This whole thing is mostly ado about nothing though.

For most people, this is a relatively mild illness. It's only certain demographics: people in certain age groups, people with certain health conditions who need to be worried about this. But we're acting like the population is being decimated form oldest to youngest regardless of health of anything else ... it's not.

I'm not arguing there is no disease. Clearly there is. I'm also not arguing that there aren't some hot spots. Truly there are. I live about 7 miles north of one myself, but I've also sat here expecting to watch that hot spot expand into my area ... and it just ... hasn't, nor do I expect it will. I think there are clear patterns emerging.

This thing likes dense urban living, and most of the US isn't quite there yet. You can tell where people are living in mostly apartment blocks and using lots of communal spaces and transits -- likely, there's a hot spot there. Even in large metros with lots of single car commuters from single family homes, you don't have the hot spots. Yes, there will be cases scattered here and there, but not the dense pockets in infection, and if you do have an outbreak, it's likely centered on a senior living community, a meat packing plant, or a prison - something like that - conditions where people are again packed in tight, cheek by jowl.

a reply to: midnightstar

Sweden ambassador: Stockholm could reach herd immunity by May.

www.aljazeera.com...

50% of the deaths in Sweden have been in retirement homes.
We have had at least 20% intensive care beds (including staff) free during this pandemic.
We are getting less cases in intensive care.



Swedish Intensive care statistics for those that want to look at the data.
www.icuregswe.org...