Corona Virus Updates Part 2

China Traveller Screening (LAX, February 5th 2020):

For anyone who is curios what is going-on with people that travel to the United States, who have come from or transited through China, I had a family member (recently, like TODAY) return to the US from China (via a connecting flight in Tokyo).

First of all, this family member is a "Permanent Resident Alien" (i.e. they have a so-called "Green Card"). So, if they were just a foreign citizen with no green-card (i.e. just a visitor visa or no visa), they might have been denied entry all-together right now. But, since they have a green-card, they were admitted much as any US citizen would be.

They were also "screened" it sounds like from some medical-ish personnel.

Normally at the airport in question (Los Angeles International, aka "LAX"), it takes about 45-minutes to 1-hour for them to go from stepping off the plane, until they are walking out of customs/immigration with their luggage.

Apparently, somewhere in that process, they (as well as everybody probably coming off that plane, which came via Tokyo), were then "screened" by some medical-ish personnel. Not sure if they were doctors/nurses or what. Could have just been immigration/customs personnel with some training.

The consequence was, that instead of it taking 45-minutes to 1-hour to get through there, it was 1.5-hours.

Interestingly, they were also given some written instructions (including a card written in both English and Chinese), asking them to closely monitor their condition over the next two weeks.

I have scanned the hand-outs they were given (which of course do not include any personal information) and uploaded them here in PDF form ...

CDC-China-Traveller-Screening-20200205.pdf
(alternative download)

NOTE: I tried to use the "uploads" here on ATS, but its not working for me. So, I just used this free file-sharing service (which I'm not a great fan of). Looking for a better place to upload it without needing to open an account or anything.

.

I can forsee all those people on the cruise ship in Tokyo getting sick. That will add quite a few to the total.

a reply to: liejunkie01

Whaddya mean DDT and a glass of milk don’t make healthy Americans??

a reply to: CrazeeWorld777

Bruise ship... pardon my gallows humor.

originally posted by: slatesteam
a reply to: liejunkie01

Whaddya mean DDT and a glass of milk don’t make healthy Americans??

It only works if you run behind the DDT mozzie trucks like youre chasing after the ice cream man... huffing that good stuff in.

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: Necrose
a reply to: Halfswede

What kind of growth would this be then? If what we have now is exponential?

Go and look up what exponential means before you embarras yourself further.

That is friendly advice.

No, I'm seriously asking, trying to learn more.

If something grows by a fixed percentage per time period it is exponential.

1% growth per day is exponential.
2% growth per day is exponential.
1000% per day is exponential.
100% per year is exponential.

In nature/the real world things do not grow at a fixed rate per day, they fluctuate, so the overall increase can be exponential even though the percent per time period is varying.

That's why you work out an average.

Then you can create a rough model.

I see, but what if we get a lower % every day.... like 29,26, 22, 20, 19,... is it still exponential?

I get that 20% every day would be exponential since the total sum increases every day, and thus 20% of that number is MORE every day. But if the % decreases then idk how it could be exponential.

don't look at the percentages alone.

when the amount of new cases is constant day after day, the growth is linear.
when the percentage is constant, the growth is exponential.
when the percentage is higher, the growth is faster than exponential.

when the percentage goes down, but the number of new cases is still higher than in the previous day, it's between linear and exponential - it's not following exponential curve, but it's still growing, faster than linearly.
when the amount of new cases is lower than in the previous day, the growth is less than linear.

that being said, there are fluctuations. you could try to average the official numbers to smooth out the curve before trying to determine the growth rate, but there's more than one way to do it. personally i would probably use bell curve over a few days window, but then you gotta be careful to normalize the data properly or you'll end up with crap results. it's entirely separate topic.

originally posted by: EndtheMadnessNow
a reply to: Advantage

Sorry, I was kidding.

Meanwhile, China's National Health Commission has deleted today's press release. Waiting for an update (correction?)

twitter.com...

They cant make the numbers too good or too bad.. or we will catch the deception .

a reply to: Advantage

@BNODesk

According to Reuters, China's National Health Commission is adding 193 new cases to the update, but we haven't seen it yet.

a reply to: Advantage
Pretty sure I won’t be counted in the actual tally we are all so obsessed with... but hey Ice cream, you scream

a reply to: TheAMEDDDoc

I posted the following yesterday;

Mr. Xi warned officials not to resist orders or to let “bureaucratism” slow government efforts to bring the outbreak under control. “Those who disobey the unified command or shirk off responsibilities will be punished,” Mr. Xi said, the Xinhua news agency reported.

I think what the underlying message here is, is that China is now very draconian, and I mean full medieval, with it's approach in how it deals with it's citizens, in an attempt to get on top of the virus.

Zika is spread by mosquitoes, so they aren't spraying to kill the Zika virus, they are spraying to kill mosquitoes and larvae.

a reply to: myselfaswell

Yea? Hey Mr. Xi, these are my friends, Pot and Kettle....

Somethings major up

I’m not gonna lie, I’m getting worried we’re about to witness something very historic on par with the plague, Spanish flu etc

How can it be we have all these outbreaks since November 2019

We had this which people have forgotten about

H7N9 bird flu... this all of a sudden disappeared

November 2019

The Chinese government’s response to this month’s outbreak of plague has been marked by temerity and some fear, which history suggests is entirely appropriate. But not all fear is the same, and Beijing seems to be afraid of the wrong things. Rather than being concerned about the germs and their spread, the government seems mostly motivated by a desire to manage public reaction about the disease. Those efforts, however, have failed—and the public’s response is now veering toward a sort of plague-inspired panic that’s not at all justified by the facts. On Nov. 3, Li Jifeng, a doctor at Beijing Chaoyang Hospital, the capital’s key infectious diseases treatment and quarantine center, attended to a middle-aged man who was struggling to breathe and his wife, who was also running a high fever and likewise gasping for air. The couple had been ailing for at least 10 days by the time Li saw them. They had initially sought care some 250 miles north of China’s capital in Inner Mongolia, a frigid cold region that straddles the borders of China, Mongolia, and North Korea, before being sent to Beijing for observation.

Then in December reports of CoronaVirus 19 nCoV

Sure u don’t need to explain what happened here

Now we have a H5N1 bird flu outbreak in China close to Wuhan
H5N1 Bird Flu Outbreak

60% mortality rate sounds closer to what we’re seeing CoronaVirus doing on the ground ?

A highly pathogenic strain of bird flu, H5N1, has caused an outbreak in China’s Hunan province, near ground zero of the deadly coronavirus. The disease doesn’t easily infect humans but when it does, it carries a staggering mortality rate of 60% according to the WHO.

Now here’s where things don’t add up and is starting to puzzle and worry me

This isn’t making sense at all

H5N1 has A 60% mortality rate, staggeringly bad

To put this in perspective, note that coronavirus has a mortality rate (BS) of only 2.1%

While SARS which did nowhere near the damage had a mortality rate of 9.6%.

With a mortality rate of 60%, the bird flu is as deadly as Ebola. However less contagious and transmittable

This doesn’t add up at all for the WHO to say SARS was worst than the current CoronaVirus is utter BS, what are they hiding from the public?

Is CoronaVirus really H5N1? Because it sure sounds like it

And if it is, this is the doomsday virus we’ve been worried about for decades and failed to prepare for that bill gates was talking about, but for China to have all 3 in the space of 3.5 months is suspect as hell to me, is this a biological attack ? Or did China’s s4 Bio lab (can’t remember name) have a domestic terror attack ? maybe a Hong Kongnese employee?

Either way.... something’s crazy out of whack here

Husband just joked that theyre spraying air freshener of some kind to mask the smell of mass graves and cremations around the clock...

Macabre freak! Thats why I married him...

a reply to: Advantage

What? Like all the PR people and mathematicians in China are dead or what....? Wait a minute..

originally posted by: jedi_hamster

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: Necrose

originally posted by: Power_Semi

originally posted by: Necrose
a reply to: Halfswede

What kind of growth would this be then? If what we have now is exponential?

Go and look up what exponential means before you embarras yourself further.

That is friendly advice.

No, I'm seriously asking, trying to learn more.

If something grows by a fixed percentage per time period it is exponential.

1% growth per day is exponential.
2% growth per day is exponential.
1000% per day is exponential.
100% per year is exponential.

In nature/the real world things do not grow at a fixed rate per day, they fluctuate, so the overall increase can be exponential even though the percent per time period is varying.

That's why you work out an average.

Then you can create a rough model.

I see, but what if we get a lower % every day.... like 29,26, 22, 20, 19,... is it still exponential?

I get that 20% every day would be exponential since the total sum increases every day, and thus 20% of that number is MORE every day. But if the % decreases then idk how it could be exponential.

don't look at the percentages alone.

when the amount of new cases is constant day after day, the growth is linear.
when the percentage is constant, the growth is exponential.
when the percentage is higher, the growth is faster than exponential.

when the percentage goes down, but the number of new cases is still higher than in the previous day, it's between linear and exponential - it's not following exponential curve, but it's still growing, faster than linearly.
when the amount of new cases is lower than in the previous day, the growth is less than linear.

that being said, there are fluctuations. you could try to average the official numbers to smooth out the curve before trying to determine the growth rate, but there's more than one way to do it. personally i would probably use bell curve over a few days window, but then you gotta be careful to normalize the data properly or you'll end up with crap results. it's entirely separate topic.

Hi, thanks for your reply, well explained.

"when the amount of new cases is lower than in the previous day, the growth is less than linear."

^^This, sir, is all I and our fellow members here needed to hear, and basically what I have been screaming all along.
Thanks!

Not only has the exponential growth stopped, it's decaying so fast it's not even linear as the number of cases added today is LOWER than the number of cases added yesterday. I understand fluctuations and all that, we'll see the next day, if tomorrow's number's are lower than today's numbers, then the growth is in decay.

Again ofc, using the data provided by CCP and accepted by WHO as of today. Too many variables to consider any other estimates.

a reply to: Advantage

I like that better than lysol. 😂🤣

originally posted by: slatesteam
a reply to: Advantage

What? Like all the PR people and mathematicians in China are dead or what....? Wait a minute..

Have you ever heard of compelling someone at the end of a sword.... like the one Dr who was telling the truth and was NOT infected. Then they quarantined him and voila.. he was suddenly infected. Dont wanna be quarantined in China apparently.

originally posted by: myselfaswell
a reply to: TheAMEDDDoc

I posted the following yesterday;

Mr. Xi warned officials not to resist orders or to let “bureaucratism” slow government efforts to bring the outbreak under control. “Those who disobey the unified command or shirk off responsibilities will be punished,” Mr. Xi said, the Xinhua news agency reported.

I think what the underlying message here is, is that China is now very draconian, and I mean full medieval, with it's approach in how it deals with it's citizens, in an attempt to get on top of the virus.

that virus is going full medieval on them, so can you really blame them?

silly example, but in the game posted several times in relation to this news, Plague Inc., i had a scenario where USA managed to close it's borders before the virus hit them, preventing the spread there. when the rest of the world was dying and there was still no cure, they somehow got a few cases, in the south i guess? from Mexico? i don't remember. thing is, they've rounded them up and killed them all to prevent the spread of the virus.

now, that's just a silly game, but do you think such scenario isn't possible? the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.

a reply to: Advantage

Oh. That’s easy. Don’t wanna be quarantined in China?
Don’t be in China...