Tropical Storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico

It looks like it will be a wet and windy weekend for the Northeast Gulf of Mexico, a broad area of low pressure in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico is expected to become Tropical Storm Nester and potentially strike somewhere between Louisiana and Florida.

From the National Hurricane Center:
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the Bay of Campeche have increased and
become a little better organized during the past several hours.
Recent satellite wind data also indicate that the system is
producing winds to near tropical storm force. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form later today
or tonight while the system moves generally northeastward over
the western Gulf of Mexico. The low is forecast to approach the
northern or northeastern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday and
regardless of development, the system is likely to produce gusty
winds and rough surf over those areas. Heavy rainfall is also
possible across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and
this weekend. Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf
coast should monitor the progress of this system. For more
information about marine hazards while the low moves across the Gulf
of Mexico during the next couple of days, see products issued by the
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of the National Hurricane
Center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Offshore Waters Forecasts for the Gulf of Mexico issued by the
National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header MIAOFFNT4,
WMO header FZNT24 KNHC, and online at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml

Forecaster Brown

Looks like I need to stock up on charcoal, ice and beer just in case.

Hurricane parties are actually pretty fun.

originally posted by: Cancerwarrior
Looks like I need to stock up on charcoal, ice and beer just in case.

Hurricane parties are actually pretty fun.

I'll buy the beers while you man the grill. Deal?

a reply to: seaswine

Are there any shrimp in the Gulf anymore?

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: seaswine

Are there any shrimp in the Gulf anymore?

Yes along with many many shrimp boats !

a reply to: 727Sky

Without the boats, what good would shrimp be?

a reply to: Phage

Probably at least 7-8. So, enough for a big bowl of gumbo with some extra spicy andouille sausage.

Seriously considering the 1000mile drive to Louisiana now. Damn I want gumbo...

Few weeks ago I got 29.4 inches of rain in 90 minutes. Took in some minor water. Never seen anything like it. We have great drainage but almost no drainage can handle that much.

It is a little more organized this morning. I expect advisories to start being issued by this evening, if not as a depression/storm then as a Potential Tropical Cyclone(PTC) because of how soon landfall will be. Tropical Storm watches/warnings will likely be issued when the advisories are issued. The hurricane hunters will be investigating it today.



From the NHC:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continue to
show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical or
subtropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the
system moves generally northeastward over the western Gulf of
Mexico. The low is forecast to approach the northern or
northeastern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday and regardless of
development, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and rough
surf over those areas. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible
across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and this
weekend. Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf coast
should monitor the progress of this system. For more information
about marine hazards while the low moves across the Gulf of Mexico,
see products issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of
the National Hurricane Center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Offshore Waters Forecasts for the Gulf of Mexico issued by the
National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header MIAOFFNT4,
WMO header FZNT24 KNHC, and online at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml

Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Michael formed from the Central American Gyre last year. Hopefully there is no repeat of a storm of that strength.

a reply to: roadgravel

The chances are nil for it to be a major hurricane with this one and highly unlikely to be a hurricane.

It will be a fast moving system so this should minimize the flood threat. There will be a tornado threat though.

a reply to: jrod

Yeah, doesn't seem to be set up but never say never.

It is classified as a PTC now with tropical storm watches and warnings being issued. It will more than likely become Tropical or sub-Tropical storm Nester by the end of the day.
From the NHC:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama
border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to
the Mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect east of the Ochlockonee River to
Yankeetown, Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida, to
Clearwater, Florida.

The key notes from the National Hurricane Center:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground
level is possible along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to
Clearwater, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in
these areas should follow advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are likely along portions of the
north-central and northeastern Gulf Coast where tropical storm
watches and warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track
and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area,
especially east of the center, and begin well in advance of the
arrival of the center.

3. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 22.4N 95.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/0000Z 23.7N 94.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H 18/1200Z 25.8N 91.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 28.5N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 30.9N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/1200Z 35.5N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1200Z 37.5N 70.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1200Z 38.0N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: 727Sky

Without the boats, what good would shrimp be?

I know some places I can bring a cast net and fill up a 120 qt cooler in about an hour when they are in season.
Don't need no stinkin' boats.

This is something I have never seen before. The NHC has not named the system yet, despite it having 60mph wind. They said the storm does not have the characteristics to be a tropical storm but still are tracking it.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Southeast Louisiana and from the Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown, Florida. Significant storm surge is expected for the NW Florida coastline. The storm is moving NE at 22mph.

TS Nestor declared now - 60 mph winds moving NE at 22.

It is a very lopsided disorganized system, but packing a punch with some strong winds. There will be a tornado threat for Florida, Georgia and Alabama as Nester blows through.

A Carnival cruise ship sailed right into the storm.
twitter.com...

Nester has been downgraded to an extra tropical low. It is still expected to bring gale force winds to the SE US coast along with heave rain and isolated tornadoes.

A tornado watch is in effect to Central Florida.