Speculation on the probability of extraterrestrial visitations

I want to present an argument that there is no doubt we have been visited and cataloged by a technologically advanced race of extraterrestrials.

I was watching an episode of Ancient Aliens and they were interviewing an astro-physicist who said "we have 200 billion stars in our galaxy and 200 billion galaxies in our Universe." This got me thinking about the total number of stars in our Universe.

Here's what the google told me:

"There are about 10 billion galaxies in the observable universe! The number of stars in a galaxy varies, but assuming an average of 100 billion stars per galaxy means that there are about 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (that's 1 billion trillion) stars in the observable universe!"

Now we all know the Drake equation but let's think about the numbers and values anyway. The next question would be how many of these stars have earth like planets in the so called "goldilocks zone" so life can have a chance to exist.

"Potential habitable zone status. In November 2013, astronomers reported, based on Kepler space mission data, that there could be as many as 40 billion Earth-sized planets orbiting in the habitable zones of Sun-like stars and red dwarfs in the Milky Way, 11 billion of which may be orbiting Sun-like stars."

It's kind of dumb number because life could develop on planets bigger and smaller than Earth. And life may develop on with stars that are not exactly like our sun. Just considering "Earth-sized planets" would reduce the total number possible of having life. It's okay though. 11 billion is a pretty big number.

Say life developed on say 1%. That would be 10 million. And let's say out of the that number only 1% or 100,000 become technologically advance. And let's say out that number 1% or 1000 sustain a technologically advanced culture for more than 500 years. And let's say out that 1000 only 1% have a technologically advanced culture lasting over 1,000,000 years. So we end up with 10. But just 1 is enough!

Some interesting numbers to consider in terms of life and technologically advanced culture lasting over 1,000,000 years:

* The universe is 13.8 billion years old
* The Milky Way is among the oldest of galaxies 13.51 billion years old
* The Earth is 4.543 billion years old
* It took 4 billion years for life to develop on earth.

So our galaxy and universe are plenty old enough to have technologically advanced cultures lasting over 1,000,000 years several times over.

So now in terms of extraterrestrial visitations what does it mean to have even just one technologically advanced culture over a million years old.

Well, the first what would be the motivation. The technologically advance countries of this planet have explored every nook and crannie of this planet. There is absolutely nothing we need from aboriginal tribes but we visit them anyway. We have documented over "12,000 species of ants all over the world." So exploration and documentation seems to be a highly motivating force based on what we have done with our own planet.

My thinking is assume for a moment we have all the necessary technology to search for life on other Worlds. Why would we do it? We would do it just for the information. We would do it just for documenting and experiencing culture from other forms of life. We would do it just for fun of it! After 1,000,000 years of video game technology development reality would probably be the only thing left that that is fun and interesting!

Let's think about what it means to be a technologically advanced culture lasting over 1,000,000 years. Obviously, the extraterrestrials will need some way to get here. Most people assume they would have some kind of FTL technology. But I think any culture lasting over a million years would almost certainly have "Jump-Drives" capable of traveling to any point in the Universe in an instance.

Jump-Drives

Now let's assume our million year old technologically advanced culture had Jump-drives. No one ever talks about it but FTL or Jump-drive would require a huge amount of energy. Well, the Universe is made of the very thing needed to get us from one place to the other. Energy is plenty abundant with anti-matter fluctuations in the quantum foam. "Richard Feynman and John Wheeler calculated the zero-point radiation of the vacuum was so powerful that even a small cup of it would be enough to set all of Earth’s oceans to a boil."

So even though not every physicist accepts Richard Feynman and John Wheeler's interpretation and conclusions let's assume they are right. Then just the amount of dark energy alone needed to accelerate the expansion of the Universe is a source of energy plenty big enough to power over millions of Jump-drives.

So this brings me to my next level of speculation. If you were going to approach the problem of exploring for other life forms how would you proceed? So if our million year old technologically advanced culture has jump-drives, a sufficient power source, then I think it's safe to assume our million year old technologically advance culture has robot technology capable of self-replication. Self replicating robots would be mining asteroid fields producing more self-replicating robots. Currently the World produces 70 million cars per year mostly created with robot technologies.

Let's say our extraterrestrial robot technology in addition to self-replicating also produce exploration drones with jump-drives. Maybe all the self-replicating mining robots have jump-drives and life detection technology. As the drones use their jump-drives to jump to the next star running instruments for detecting life they then also go to the nearby planets or asteroid fields and start replicating using local resources.

The idea of detecting life from outer space just using information obtained from spectral analysis is an interesting topic. Here is a great TED talk on ways of detecting life from outer space:

How do we search for alien life if it's nothing like the life that we know?

So let's return back to the question of the numbers. Say our self-replicating mining robots with jump-drives and life detection technology are producing 100 million new space probes per year. Say for argument each probe makes one jump per year. In ten years we have one billion probes. In 100 years our probes could have searched for life on 100 billion stars. So searching the Milky Way galaxy would take 200 years to probe every star for life or shorter depending on the exponential self-replication. I'm just too old to do calculus rates of change problems anymore. So let's just assume the numbers are linear so I don't get a headache.

Now recently we have heard of detection equipment is now capable of distinguishing planets having water and therefore possibly in the goldilocks zone. So maybe a million year old technologically advanced culture would have better ways of knowing which nearby stars would be worth jumping to to speed up the search.

200 years is not a very long time. In that same 200 year period millions and millions of more probes with jump-drives would have been created capable of searching every other galaxy in our Universe. So let's say for practical purposes it takes 1000 years to search every star in every galaxy in our Universe for life. 1000 years is not a very long time. Maybe the number is 10,000. Regardless, both of these numbers are very short on the cosmic timescale. And once a probe finds life it would jump-back to extraterrestrial home planet. And our extraterrestrials can use a ship with a jump-drive to return back the next day.

From our original numbers we had 10 extraterrestrial cultures having over million years of technological advancement in the Milky Way galaxy. There are 100 billion galaxies in our Universe. So this would mean there are 10 times 100 billion number or one trillion extraterrestrial cultures having over million years of technological advancement in our Universe capable of coming to our solar system.

Now assume they are here. For any million year old technologically advanced culture we would certainly have nothing of interest or value other than to be cataloged and studied. Any million year old technologically advanced culture would certainly have figured out a way of getting all their needs met many years before they were able to come to our planet.

Some people have claimed they are here to take our gold. But I'm sure any million year old technologically advanced culture would most certainly have transmutation technologies capable of producing gold. Stars produce gold. There are ways to manufacture gold given enough energy. So I'm sure our sure our extraterrestrial visitors would already have plenty of gold. I think it's safe to assume there is nothing we have our extraterrestrial friends would be motivated to have.

And not only that, a technologically advance culture would be like NSA on steroids in terms of gathering information about us. They would probably be able to do the equivalent of anal probing everyone on the planet real-time from stealth satellites in space. A million year old technologically advanced culture would probably have ways of studying us beyond our comprehension and detection.

So in conclusion, I would say the chances of at least one million year old technologically advanced culture detecting our existence and visiting us are
very high. It's probably more like thousands of different extraterrestrials have or are currently visiting us. We are just not smart enough as a species to detect their presence. The NSA is invading our privacy all the time and we have no idea what they are taking. A single one million year old technologically advanced culture would be very difficult to detect.

Probably zero chance of extraterrestrials.......

However, here on the surface of the big blue marble in space......

We have others visiting.......as if they can take any form.....2 or 4 legged or with wings....
And, they're not exactly forthcoming with the honesty.....sorry sap suckers

Hail, man.....it's an age old war!

I've read about it....

originally posted by: GBP/JPY
Probably zero chance of extraterrestrials.......

I spent an hour on this post. You could have at least given me the courtesy of speaking with complete sentences. After this sentence I have no idea what you are talking about. Do you studder in real life? Regardless, you certainly have the right to your own opinion. Many people believed the Earth was flat. Even today some do.

Maybe intelligent life is a complete anomaly, maybe all intelligence is inherently aggressive and on the rare occasions it evolves it destroys itself before it can populate the stars. Maybe we are the first to evolve and we are destined to be the aliens to other less evolved worlds.

Give this video a consideration....



Edit to add, the presenter makes a good argument by seriously challenging the enormous probabilities touched on by the OP

a reply to: dfnj2015

I gave you a star and a flag for the effort that you put into the OP.
I tend to think that the number of goldilocks planets exceed the guesstimates that have been put forth by astronomers.
Not that a goldilocks planet is required to life to develop anyway, we just tend to think in terms of life as we know it.

That said, there must be a lot of extraterrestrial civilizations that greatly exceed our technological development.

A question would be why we have not been contacted.

a reply to: Drunkenparrot

That's why I used multiple 1% reductions.

Yes, sorry bout that......

I'm trying to close out some trades on the Forex front......drives me wild huh.......a reply to: dfnj2015

a reply to: butcherguy

I think I answered this question, "For any million year old technologically advanced culture we would certainly have nothing of interest or value other than to be cataloged and studied."

a reply to: GBP/JPY

No problem. It's all good!

a reply to: dfnj2015

Impressive thread...well done.

When you add the possibility of interdimensional beings from another time/dimension, then things really start getting mind-boggling.

Ventre speculated that the flying objects encountered by the Navy pilots were advanced military aircrafts that came from the future. He added that these aircrafts could have been piloted by humans who ended up on the current timeline through interdimensional travel, a topic that was widely tackled by director Christopher Nolan’s 2014 science fiction film “Interstellar.”

“I think what we’re dealing with is maybe interdimensional,” Ventre said. “It could be us from the future, it could be something coming through a dimension.”

www.ibtimes.com...

a reply to: shawmanfromny

I'm not smart enough to consider inter-dimensional beings. For me inter-dimensional beings are kind of like calculus rates of change problems!

What about the Infinite Improbability Drive, which allows a ship to pass through every conceivable point in the universe without all that tedious mucking about in hyperspace?
I have absolutely no doubt that non-Earth-based beings travel through this neck of the woods.
And have been doing so for a very long time.

That last quote....the paragraph.....the last line.....sums up my view as an outdoorsman with 7 decades in the seat.....ya shoulda seen the 400 foot cigar over Dallas 1999

originally posted by: shawmanfromny
a reply to: dfnj2015

Impressive thread...well done.

When you add the possibility of interdimensional beings from another time/dimension, then things really start getting mind-boggling.

Ventre speculated that the flying objects encountered by the Navy pilots were advanced military aircrafts that came from the future. He added that these aircrafts could have been piloted by humans who ended up on the current timeline through interdimensional travel, a topic that was widely tackled by director Christopher Nolan’s 2014 science fiction film “Interstellar.”

“I think what we’re dealing with is maybe interdimensional,” Ventre said. “It could be us from the future, it could be something coming through a dimension.”

www.ibtimes.com...

a reply to: dfnj2015

I presume that he is referring to the Collins Elite research. And I agree with him. It seems likely that they are inter-dimensional beings and not extraterrestrials visiting Earth.

a reply to: dfnj2015
Please don’t misunderstand, I think that your idea is carefully thought out and your thread is well constructed.

I agreed with you in the statistical certainty of advanced life being common, I disagree about any evidence of terrestrial visitation however the TED talk video posted above swayed my opinion to one of cautious uncertainty.

Truth lies and statistics, right?

This recaps our situation on observed anomalies

Mathematicians have this reality as a hologram....a simulated reality.....

Witnesses and us outdoorsmen...know what we see when we run into strange and unusual crytids or craft....
So we are not seeing swamp gas when we see a 400 foot cigar with no sun reflection off the nose like all the md 90's and 757s flying by....

When I'm out by Seattle and the surroundings get surreal....meaning the woods go silent, then birdy whistle sounds start, 4 at first, then after 25 minutes....the whole local valley is filled.....200 birdy sounds all very evenly dispersed....its scary....

Thats when your mind goes either brave in the faith that God won't let ya get eaten or ya haul azz outta there
My problem is I end up hauling azz out...even though I'm loaded for dangerous African game....because great big entities throw bulldozers off the mountain top, and I hear the noise crashing down the scree and hitting 200 foot red cedars on the way down.....and I jump on my Yamaha 125......defeated

But, we know what we saw...so I vote no to the fellow in the video..... a reply to: GBP/JPY

1) Drake's equation - There were very few factors in the original as it was just an example . Once all of the thousands of factors are entered , the result is near 0.

2) Warp drive , Wormholes , "Jump Drive" about anything one can think takes almost infinite energy . A definite negative on that one.

a reply to: dfnj2015

It's probably more like thousands of different extraterrestrials have or are currently visiting us. We are just not smart enough as a species to detect their presence.

I've always wondered this. We talk of gray men looking like creatures, but what if....
What if extraterrestrials are really like invisible lobsters, or a blob, or a cold breeze, or something else that isn't even comprehensible to us. I've even heard funny theories that cats are really aliens. How funny if that were really true.

a reply to: JAGStorm

that cats are really aliens.

I wouldn't be surprised.