Deflation has just begun, prepare for true asset values, major correction coming

a reply to: Metallicus

Here are some "traditional sources" on the issue.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Some new crypto tokens will be/are backed by real things, like property. The ICO raises funds to purchase real estate and dividends are paid based on tokens owned. Not just real estate either. Pretty much anything can and will be 'tokenised'. There are some some new regulations that must come with this and that is happening. Once this becomes more clearly regulated it could be huge. It could find a niche as something between stocks and money. Currency with a dividend perhaps.

I am behind on my cryptocurrency knowledge because it evolves so fast and I haven't had the time to stay current.

I have a shed stocked with cigarettes, booze, diapers, and bug spray...

I'll be fine.

a reply to: Bone75

I should probably buy some stuff like that too. I don't smoke anymore and I don't drink, but I wouldnt mind keeping some around just in case I need subsistance trades.

Plenty of guns and ammo, plenty of silver and gold, got crypto too.

originally posted by: Bone75
I have a shed stocked with cigarettes, booze, diapers, and bug spray...

I'll be fine.

Don't forget TP -- a nice dry barn full of TP, lol. The real Mad Max will be about TP.

originally posted by: infolurker
a reply to: toysforadults

Already ready as best as can be.

Swapped all my stocks for bonds /tbills back in October.

Better to make almost nothing than lose 40%

I moved almost 7 figures from indexed funds in the S&P and Dow to Treasuries in October. I have an an account that allows me to move funds from one indexed fund to another for free, so I jumped ship on the market. I saw too many thinks that (I guessed) would make the stock market flutter. Remember, this was me thinking about how stock traders would think. That is a few minds removed from reality. In order of importance:

Upcoming turmoil caused by the US mid-term elections (figured the Dems would take the house)
Tariffs coming on line
Political instability in Europe with Brexit
Political instability in the US because of ongoing investigations into the executive
10 year (or so) cycle of boom/bust or growth/recession in US
Projected Fed Interest rate hikes

And now we have the partial shutdown.
I don't see the market as rational. I see the markets as the combined efforts of a bunch of irrational individuals who tend to run like panicked herds when frightened. Those who see the markets as rational are not rational.

That being said, I still subscribe to broad index funds based upon the S&P and the DOW. I am only a few years out from retirement, so I pay more attention to holding what I have. I had to leave a few stock indexed funds where they were, because they are in different 401Ks and would cost me an arm and a leg to move. So I am feeling some pain.

I think I will wait at least another month before even considering a move back into stocks. I want the China trade deals to get worked out, the US govt. to fully open, and for some closure on interest rates. I think that is what the market brokers would like to see, and so I am trying to guess what they are thinking.

It is an rational effort to understand the actions of an irrational group of traders.

Good luck!

originally posted by: infolurker
a reply to: toysforadults

They may be onto something:

www.deagel.com...

Throwing a bit more into food and metals.

Ive been doing the same, but I do have a some concern about gold and silver. That's why I have also put away a bunch of food. Lots of wheat berries, and a nice electric/ hand op Magic Mill. I may get more gold later, when a loaf of bread will buy a bag of gold

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

That isn't the point of currency.

If studied objectively, currency is nothing more than a communication of value between people and entities.

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

originally posted by: Slickinfinity
I think this will be great for crypto as it might be seen as a hedge against fiat currency and stocks.

All currency is fiat including crypto.

You need to make a correction there.... No they are not.

These are currency, and they aren't fiat....

originally posted by: AugustusMasonicus

originally posted by: projectvxn
Crypto, on the other hand, is traded in an unregulated market. It doesnt get more independent than that.

It's still fiat, it has no intrinsic value.

Very few things have intrinsic value. At least the ones used to represent human labor, which all currency ultimately attempts to represent. Unlike barter - I give you corn, you give me potatoes, Currency, gold, silver, jewels, etc have little practical use. Gold and silver are used for some industrial applications, like circuit boards or special chemical processes, and diamonds are very hard. By and large though, it is all in our heads. As long as we agree (or most of use agree) that the currency is valuable, it is. If someone says that fiat is worthless, let us watch how they behave when a armored car tips over on the highway, spilling "worthless" fiat currency all over the road....

They will just keep driving by that worthless fiat currency, right?

a reply to: FilthyUSMonkey


It isn't looking great at all, all the stats from the department of commerce are unavailable because of the shutdown, which is handy for some. All the major manufacturers are cutting staff, which means all the subcontractors will be struggling as well. We are the little people so its wise to ask, "What are the big people doing" ? and why has an unstastainable business model gained so much traction when the inevitable end result will be obvious. If it was obvious then its been planed all along.

a reply to: FilthyUSMonkey

you may actually benefit from waiting because the market SHOULD gap down at least somewhat to adjust for reduced projected consumer market spending

but so I have found out SHOULD and do are very different

originally posted by: anonentity
a reply to: FilthyUSMonkey


It isn't looking great at all, all the stats from the department of commerce are unavailable because of the shutdown, which is handy for some. All the major manufacturers are cutting staff, which means all the subcontractors will be struggling as well. We are the little people so its wise to ask, "What are the big people doing" ? and why has an unstastainable business model gained so much traction when the inevitable end result will be obvious. If it was obvious then its been planed all along.

I'm worried about Q4 data

a reply to: visitedbythem

can I have those please?

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: visitedbythem

can I have those please?

No, but wanna see some more?

a reply to: visitedbythem

rofl, I'm actually getting ready to buy some silver myself

originally posted by: projectvxn
a reply to: Bone75

I should probably buy some stuff like that too. I don't smoke anymore and I don't drink, but I wouldnt mind keeping some around just in case I need subsistance trades.

Plenty of guns and ammo, plenty of silver and gold, got crypto too.

Learning how to distill alcohol is a simple skill to acquire, and only requires some basic equipment. Forget the old copper still in the woods. A very large graduated flask, a good thermometer, a hot plate (or other controlled hear source, like a small fire), some food grade 5 gallon pails, 50 ft of food grade plastic hose, a few stoppers, some yeast and an elevation chart that shows the boiling point of ethyl alcohol at your elevation is all you need. Oh, and some burned wood (charcoal) for filtering. Under $75 bucks.

Do not keep this assembled in the US unless you have a license to distill alcohol. This is stuff to keep in your garage, basement or attic in separate pieces until the final balloon goes up. You can make the initial "beer" from most any organic stuff - sugar, berries, apples, grain, grass seed, any kind of plant that produces starchy stuff like potatoes, etc. Boil the stuff, put it in your 5 gal bucket, add yeast, cover and wait a week. Then pour the "beer" into your flask, attach your hose (run/coil it though a garbage can of cold water/steam/snow if you can) and capture the drippings (after filtering with charcoal - simple can with an opening at one end filled with crushed charcoal and a hole in the bottom) when the temp is right for ethyl alcohol at your elevation, and you are done. You can add more water to re-distill to further improve your product.

Ethyl is good for drinking, medical uses, and can run small engines. You can use it for cooking, heat and lighting. Most importantly you can trade ethyl, and folks will think you are valuable to your local community of post-apocalyptic MAD MAX mutants in future world.

That is all.

a reply to: toysforadults

but so I have found out SHOULD and do are very different

Theoretically the people that have the most (correct) insider information have the best chance of beating the odds.
For example there are absolutely huge pools of money under pyramid scheme management that we don't know the status of..
There are also emergency shut down protocols implemented when these pyramid schemes are identified as hostile.
Looks like gambling in all but the longest terms and I'm not sure how much longer the baby boomers are going to continue to contribute?

My question is, how will gold and silver fare in a deflationary period?

a reply to: CharlesT

Good. Fed will probably respond by dropping rates again which will increase inflation