Per NASA Asteroid 101955 Bennu shown as 0.00 distance from earth 9-24-2186

a reply to: SeaWorthy

8) Magnetic reversals lead to extinction events.
9) Magnetic reversals may cause biblical floods.

Wrong and Wrong.
There is no evidence of this. There have been over 100 magnetic pole reversals in the last 20 million years and there are no catastrophic events linked with them. The source of your information on this is a fringe wannabee 'official' reference with no official scientific credentials.

Where did the NASA tracking data go for 2019 thru 2186? It is no longer on the NASA Sentry webpage. Does anyone have the yearly tracking data on this asteroid?

LINK -only to 2135 tho..

-Driver

a reply to: UKTruth

ISIS
Impactor for Surface and Interior Science (direct .pdf link)

Looks like this portion of the mission is still only concept.

originally posted by: charlyv
a reply to: SeaWorthy

8) Magnetic reversals lead to extinction events.
9) Magnetic reversals may cause biblical floods.

Wrong and Wrong.
There is no evidence of this. There have been over 100 magnetic pole reversals in the last 20 million years and there are no catastrophic events linked with them. The source of your information on this is a fringe wannabee 'official' reference with no official scientific credentials.

The papers are listed I have read the science reports.

Did you click the links? I will look up the actual science and put it on when I get time.

Oxygen escape from the Earth during geomagnetic reversals: Implications to mass extinction

Author links open overlay panelYongWeiabcZuyinPubQiugangZongbWeixingWanaZhipengRenaMarkusFraenzcEduardDubinincFengTiandeQuanqiShifSuiyanFubMinghuaHonga a Key Laboratory of Ionospheric Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beituchengxilu #19, 100029, Beijing, China b School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, China c Max-Planck Institute for Solar System Research, 37191, Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany d National Astronomical Observatories, CAS, 100012, Beijing, China e Center for Earth System Sciences, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing, China f Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy and Solar-Terrestrial Environment, School of Space Science and Physics, Shandong University at Weihai, 264209, Shandong, China Received 19 November 2013, Revised 8 February 2014, Accepted 10 March 201

4, Available online 1 April 2014.

VIDEO CITATIONS Oxygen Disaster at Reversal: ac.els-cdn.com... -Weakening Magnetosphere- 2003 BBC Magnetism Article: news.bbc.co.uk... 2004 NatGeo Magnetism Article: news.nationalgeographic.com... 2006 NatGeo Magnetism Article: news.nationalgeographic.com... 2008 NASA Magnetic Breach: science.nasa.gov... 2011 ESA Magnetism Article: www.esa.int...) Magnetic Field Animation: wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp... -Pole Shift- 2003 NASA Pole Shift Article: science.nasa.gov... 2008 Kyoto Pole Shift Animation: geomag.org... 2010 Kyoto Pole Shift Visual: wdc.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp... 2011 Discovery Pole Shift Article: news.discovery.com... -Cosmic Rays and Clouds- Direct Link Between GCR and Clouds: earthshine.dmi.dk... Solar Activity Linked to GCR and Clouds: www.sciencedaily.com... Cloud Condensation Nuclei: www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.ne...... Further Confirmation: scitech.au.dk... Cosmic Rays vs Sunspots: neutronm.bartol.udel.edu... NASA's Cosmic Energy Effect: science.nasa.gov... U-Del: Cosmic Rays v Sunspots: neutronm.bartol.udel.edu... -Grand Cycle Paper- Choudhuri 2013: arxiv.org...

PDF

CATACLYSMIC POLARITY SHIFT IS U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY PREPARED FOR THE NEXT GEOMAGNETIC POLE REVERSAL? by Tyler J. Williams, Captain, USAF

apps.dtic.mil...

NEWS 09 JANUARY 2019 Earth’s magnetic field is acting up and geologists don’t know why Erratic motion of north magnetic pole forces experts to update model that aids global navigation.

www.nature.com...

dbl

Carl Hergenrother was one of the two students who first observed Bennu in 1996 and now he is employes as the Astronomy Working Group Lead & Strategic and Tactical Scientist on the OSIRIS-REx mission.

solarsystem.nasa.gov...

www.newscientist.com...

If the government was “protecting” the public by withholding information about a Bennu impact event - the OSIRIS-REX team and more specifically Carl Hergenrother would know the truth.


a reply to: jadedANDcynical

a reply to: Buvvy

I don't necessarily think it's a matter of the government withholding the information about the asteroids orbit. I mean, look at the information available that has been posted in this thread. It's more a matter of the public being distracted by all of the other shiny objects and having the average attention span of a goldfish.

Anything that's not right in the face of most people doesn't get consideration.

Thank you for the link!

On 6/23/2018 John Weirich, Post-Doctoral Research Scientist at Planetary Science Institute, posted: The Japanese are getting closer to Ryugu with Hayabusa 2! Two others and myself are helping the Japanese with their shape model (mentioned in passing in the article below), so this is good practice for when OSIRIS-REx starts getting images of Bennu in November. So far Ryugu looks a lot like the shape we used for our more "extreme" testing. Those large boulders all over the asteroid are more difficult for our automated software to represent accurately, so we might have to do a lot of "manual" work. Overall though, Ryugu looks a lot like what we expect to see at Bennu. Check out spaceflightnow.com...…/asteroid-ryugu-revealed-by-ap…/ if you want to know more!

Wonder what kind of “extreme” testing he was referring to?




a reply to: Z32Driver

Agreed. However, the news coverage really downplayed what OSIRIS-REx was attempting and why they were targeting Bennu. Even NASA downplayed it. solarsystem.nasa.gov...

I know this isn’t as dramatic as the plot of the Bruce Willis film Armageddon; however, NASA does appear to be considering an experiment to alter Bennu’s trajectory in 2021.

NASA doesn’t know what will happen if they “push” Bennu into a new orbit. What if Bennu splits into two pieces? What if they push the asteroid into another one of the planets in our solar system (Venus is also a potential impact target)? Lots of ways that this “experiment” could go wrong.

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

a reply to: Buvvy

If this is accurate, then it is a good thing that we have taken the opportunity to get in early and make certain of our data where the structure of this body is concerned.


To those who have laughed off this threat, because their insignificant span of years will be over by the time a threat approaches, I can only say this:

I am glad your total apathy pleases you, and that history will forget your names and consider you not one iota. I can only hope that if you have spawned progeny, they make a better contribution to the story of this species, than you have been prepared to make during what I can only assume has been a deeply unfulfilling, waste of time of a life.

a reply to: TrueBrit

Sir Isaac Newton speculated about the end of times, estimating that this would occur near 2060.

There would have been quite a lot of evidence of previous asteroid activity available given the optics of the day.
My guess is that they counted craters on the moon and measured spin rates,angles to the ecliptic, tidal forces, even the earths magnetic field to determine the age of the moon. Then there are the old Earth crater atifacts and impact glass anomalies that beg the question. So there has likely been secret "end of the world as we know it" forecasting for millennia that never made the history books.

I don't have a paste-able link so of course it never happened.

Why did they wait so long before letting a third grader name Bennu?

originally posted by: Z32Driver

Where did the NASA tracking data go for 2019 thru 2186? It is no longer on the NASA Sentry webpage. Does anyone have the yearly tracking data on this asteroid?

LINK -only to 2135 tho..

-Driver

The distance projected for 2135 is between 0.00079 to 0.00358 AU, which is ~73,000 to ~333,000 miles That's a miss. However, a pass that close will mean that the Earth's gravity will change the asteroid's orbit. Without knowing the exact miss distance, it's impossible to calculate how the orbit will change with any precision. Thus, any post-2135 prediction made using current orbital data will not be accurate.

You do realise NASA aren't the only ones with telescopes? Any observatory around the world can track Bennu and calculate its trajectory and possible close approaches or impacts.

Anyhoo, it's too early to tell with any accuracy when Bennu would strike Earth... if it ever will. Each of Bennu's future close approaches will determine the next ones, as there are many gravitational variables at play.

Possible Earth Impact

Bennu will pass 0.005 au (750,000 km; 460,000 mi) from Earth on 23 September 2060. The close approach of 2060 causes divergence in the close approach of 2135. On 25 September 2135, the nominal approach distance is 0.002 au (300,000 km; 190,000 mi) from Earth, but Bennu could pass as close as 0.0007 au (100,000 km; 65,000 mi). There is no chance of an Earth impact in 2135. The 2135 approach will create many lines of variations and Bennu may pass through a gravitational keyhole during the 2135 passage which could create an impact scenario at a future encounter. The keyholes are all less than 55 km wide.

On 25 September 2175, there is a 1 in 24,000 chance of an Earth impact, but the nominal 2175 approach is in February 2175 at a distance of roughly 0.1 au (15,000,000 km; 9,300,000 mi). The most threatening virtual impactor is on 24 September 2196 when there is a 1 in 11,000 chance of an Earth impact. There is a cumulative 1 in 2,700 chance of an Earth impact between 2175–2199.

Long term

Lauretta et al. reported in 2015 their results of a computer simulation, concluding that it is more likely that 101955 Bennu will be destroyed by some other cause:

The orbit of Bennu is intrinsically dynamically unstable, as are those of all NEOs. In order to glean probabilistic insights into the future evolution and likely fate of Bennu beyond a few hundred years, we tracked 1,000 virtual "Bennus" for an interval of 300 Myr with the gravitational perturbations of the planets Mercury–Neptune included. Our results ... indicate that Bennu has a 48% chance of falling into the Sun. There is a 10% probability that Bennu will be ejected out of the inner Solar System, most likely after a close encounter with Jupiter. The highest impact probability for a planet is with Venus (26%), followed by the Earth (10%) and Mercury (3%). The odds of Bennu striking Mars are only 0.8% and there is a 0.2% chance that Bennu will eventually collide with Jupiter.

I know this isn’t as dramatic as the plot of the Bruce Willis film Armageddon; however, NASA does appear to be considering an experiment to alter Bennu’s trajectory in 2021

I am sceptical that an experiment of this kind will be conducted. Trying to change the orbit of an asteroid 114 years before a predicted VERY close approach would be an extremely dangerous thing to do. Bennu has a mass of around 70 million tons, so adjusting its trajectory would be no easy task. Any slight miscalculation (or unpredictable outcome) could nudge it onto a collision course with Earth. Much better to study its orbit for decades, determine its exact orbital characteristics (including how it is affected by the Yarkovsky effect over an extended period of time), and then take action if the probability of a future impact becomes virtually certain.

a reply to: wildespace

I am pretty sure it has been agreed that the public would not be told if something devastating is imminent, that would include all observatories being told not to make such info public.

So how much warning will we really have if an asteroid is about to hit Earth? The answer is pretty grim. "With so many of even the larger NEOs remaining undiscovered, the most likely warning today would be zero," NASA informs us. We would see nothing at all until suddenly, just as the impact occurred, we noticed a "flash of light and the shaking of the ground as it hit." Then poof.

2013

David Ewalt reports on asteroid 99942 Apophis, a hunk of space rock discovered back in 2004 that astronomers said had "a small chance" of collision "with the Earth in the year 2029, causing an explosion equivalent to 1480 megatons of TNT–nearly 30 times larger than the biggest hydrogen bomb ever detonated."

We had a "close pass" with the asteroid yesterday---veering around 9 million miles close to our planet. According to Ewalt, scientists are now claiming the asteroid is about 20% bigger than they first thought, and even though it's still not likely that Apophis will collide with our planet, if it did the impact would be even more dire. The near pass should help scientists project collision likelihood well into the future

www.forbes.com...

When the moon was struck no warning

NASA scientists captured an earlier terrifying 56,000 mph collision on video – believed to be the biggest Moon collision ever. The footage was used by NASA scientists to highlight the catastrophic danger planet Earth faces from similar meteors – was caused by a space rock weighing no more than 88 lbs (40 kilos). Despite the meteor’s tiny proportions – about the size of a small boulder and the weight of an average 10-year-old boy – the impact damage was colossal and the explosion shone with the brightness of a magnitude 4 star.

A similar strike against a city on earth would create a crater 65feet (20m) deep and create a devastating kill zone equivalent to TEN Tomahawk cruise missile striking in exactly the same place

www.express.co.uk...

originally posted by: SeaWorthy
a reply to: wildespace

I am pretty sure it has been agreed that the public would not be told if something devastating is imminent, that would include all observatories being told not to make such info public.

Sources, please? I have not seen any such agreement or any such notion in the astronomy community. Who is this entity that controls what the world observatories can or cannot say?

Not telling the public of an imminent large impact is different from not knowing about it until it's about to happen or has already happened.

originally posted by: wildespace

originally posted by: SeaWorthy
a reply to: wildespace

I am pretty sure it has been agreed that the public would not be told if something devastating is imminent, that would include all observatories being told not to make such info public.

Sources, please? I have not seen any such agreement or any such notion in the astronomy community. Who is this entity that controls what the world observatories can or cannot say?

Not telling the public of an imminent large impact is different from not knowing about it until it's about to happen or has already happened.

Why would they tell and be ordered NOT to tell? If they could not move millions what would be the point. The reasons would be the same as hiding aliens, people panic. People panic even if they get a sniff of possible disaster that is why people are called names like "scare Monger" for even wanting to discuss the possibilities!

People go crazy if the power goes out!

A little logic.

originally posted by: SeaWorthy

originally posted by: wildespace

originally posted by: SeaWorthy
a reply to: wildespace

I am pretty sure it has been agreed that the public would not be told if something devastating is imminent, that would include all observatories being told not to make such info public.

Sources, please? I have not seen any such agreement or any such notion in the astronomy community. Who is this entity that controls what the world observatories can or cannot say?

Not telling the public of an imminent large impact is different from not knowing about it until it's about to happen or has already happened.

Why would they tell and be ordered NOT to tell? If they could not move millions what would be the point. The reasons would be the same as hiding aliens, people panic. People panic even if they get a sniff of possible disaster that is why people are called names like "scare Monger" for even wanting to discuss the possibilities!

People go crazy if the power goes out!

A little logic.

That's not logic, that's just your assumptions and imagination.

Asteroids can be tracked using amateur telescopes, too.

a reply to: Slichter

Well, if you had said that he predicted the end of times somewhere around 2160, then we might be onto something. A hundred whole years out though? I don't know. That does not seem like something the man who invented differential calculus would have failed to pin down to within five years of error, rather than one hundred.

As for waiting a long time to give a mere name to an object? My best guess at an answer is that it doesn't matter why, because its not likely to be important in the slightest bit.

a reply to: TrueBrit

As I postulated much of the data Newton would have used to date some future major asteroid disaster would have come from moon observations.

Rebecca Ghent, study co-author and planetary scientist at the University of Toronto, determined the rate at which rocks break down into soil. She also discovered that older craters are covered by fewer boulders and rocks than younger craters. This is because tiny meteorites hitting the moon help to grind down the boulders over time.

More recently we have obtained better resolution for this activity.

www.cnn.com...

Asteroid Bennu apparently has not made any close passes near the sun where the heating would create a comet tail of debris that could be easily seen from Earth in Newtons day. I agree the name Bennu could be some loose reference to the myth of the Phoenix bird rather than a critical date event such as Caesar's Comet and the fall of Rome.

This being a conspiracy forum Bennu might have potential UFO implications though.

Mark Twain went out with the Haley Comet and the MSM had a new tool in radio broadcasts to replace the columnists.
Hale Bopp took out Applewhite and his Heavens Gate followers in 1997 after the Art Bell talk show and the internet meme.

The Benben stone is an object found in the mythology of ancient Egypt. It is a stone with a conical shape and, according to some theorists, may be of extraterrestrial origin.

I haven't really thought about this much but asteroid Bennu orbits along a path that is close to the plane of Earths and other major planetary orbits.
Here is a conspiracy angle:
What if Pioneer 10 encountered Bennu back in the 1970's and they never told us?