Analysis of Brexit

originally posted by: DigginFoTroof
-Progressive (liberals) in Britain want to remain in the EU

I don't know why you think those who want to remain in the EU are "progressives". Arguably, people who want to leave - or want a different EU - are the progressives.

Anyhoo. The EU's insistence in the Northern Ireland Backstop is hugely divisive, and an indication that they (the EU) are content to hobble the UK in future trade deals by threatening to break up the UK. The more I see of the EU Commission and the scant disregard for the common good of both the EU and the UK, the more I see that the Brexiteers were right - and here I am a person who voted to stay.

With friends like the EU, who needs enemies, eh? Certainly, in the way the Republic of Ireland is acting I would completely review relations post Brexit, including tearing up some of the previous arrangements - like preferential treatment of citizens of the Republic.

originally posted by: paraphi

Anyhoo. The EU's insistence in the Northern Ireland Backstop is hugely divisive, and an indication that they (the EU) are content to hobble the UK in future trade deals by threatening to break up the UK.

The backstop is not the favoured policy of the EU it is a last resort an

insurance policy? Only to be used when the UK gets out of the EU line.....



Anyone who believes ^^^that^^^ needs to be sectioned for their own safety

a reply to: DigginFoTroof
It's more complicated than that though because Scotland wants to stay in the EU.
We could see the break up of the UK over Brexit.
I'm easy if the Scots do one, won't affect my life, and royal navy ships will be built in SW England again instead of Scotland so my local economy will benefit.

a reply to: CornishCeltGuy

I'm easy if the Scots do one, won't affect my life, and royal navy ships will be built in SW England again instead of Scotland so my local economy will benefit.

The difficulty with that though is the skills base.

The ship yards on the Clyde have a long history of building advanced warships that means that they then also have a skilled work force that are able to build these ships. A lot of ship building in SW England was lost in the 1980's but its still very active up in the Clyde. You couldn't just magic up those skills so there would be a very long transition period where new ships would probably need to be built with the assistance of the Clyde. Furthermore these are not government owned facilities they are owned by private enterprise who I don't think would be too keen to move.

Lastly and most obviously, the UK has just had two massive air craft carriers built in the Clyde so your not going to be getting a massive contract like that any time soon.

Bit of a pipe dream to think that Scottish independence then would instantly revitalise shipping in England.

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin
The Royal Navy has never commissioned ships from a foreign nation, so if you leave you can kiss goodbye to those contracts.
I'm just looking at the potential benefits for my part of the island...and I'm correct seeing it that way...the skill based will just move south from Scotland.

Aye, sorry OP, that's a very bias perspective. And I'm afraid it's factually incorrect on a number of issues.

Which is understandable, the Leave campaign told a vast number lies, so there's a huge amount of misinformation out there.



> -Progressive (liberals) in Britain want to remain in the EU



It was a very close result remember. 48/52. So you're describing 48% of the people as 'progressive liberals'? That's simply not the case.

And you say 'progressive liberals' like that's an insult? Being progressive is a good thing. And liberals love freedom for everyone. The opposite of 'progressive liberal' is 'regressive authoritarian'.


-The result of the Brexit negotiations resulted in a horrible deal for Britain thus making leaving the EU VERY distasteful if not painful - probably to make an example.



No, that's because there is simply no good deal for leaving the EU. There is absolutely no deal that is better than our current membership deal.

And this is one of the core lies of the Brexit campaign. They promised a land of milk and honey where everybody would be richer and things would be easy to arrange and everything would be awesome.

But the truth is, there is no 'good' brexit deal. Every scenario of Brexit results in the country being worse off. That's just... how it is.

We can't leave a club, and expect to keep all the benefits of membership of that club. Brexiteers promised we could. But, they lied.



> -Negotiations may have been sabotaged by both parties (EU and progressives in Britain)


From day one the EU were very clear what they could and could not offer. They've not sabotaged anything. They've just consistently said 'This is what we can do. This is what we cannot do.'

If anybody sabotaged the negotiations it was David Davis, whose time as Brexit minister was marked by almost criminal levels of incompetence, as he boasted about not bothering to do his job, and how funny it was that he didn't need to do anything.

And who was David Davis? A hardcore brexiteer.



>From the outside this really looks like "we didn't like the way the first vote went, so we will drag our feet,



No, it's just that Brexit promised we'd build a cheese submarine, which is clearly a bonkers idea, but here we are as a nation, trying to build a cheese submarine.



> they won't accept election results but when the shoe is on the other foot, they are vicious if there is any questioning or >
>dissension (to the point of pushing law suits).



Again, very untrue. The massive pro EU demonstrations have all been very peaceful and polite.

By contrast, look at the tiny Brexit march recently, where just 3000 people turned out. And many of them were BNP types.



> I know there are major issues with the financial markets, residency (for both EU and GB citizens), border w/n Ireland >and a number of other things.



Teensy understatement there. Those are indeed major issues, and so far not a single Brexiteer has offered a single sensible solution to any of these problems.

Instead they just shout 'WE SHOULD JUST WALK AWAY WITH NO DEAL!' which is just... beyond stupid.

a reply to: CornishCeltGuy

Well its all hypothetical but the Clyde is where the Navy build their ships, thats where that skill base is principally located. If Scotland leave thats not going to change, you can't just magic up a skill base like that over night or hope that a few thousand lads from Glasgow will head down to do the job because even if they did do that they would then just be pinching all those jobs you were hopping for....

kind of a dead end argument this one mate.

originally posted by: paraphi

originally posted by: DigginFoTroof
-Progressive (liberals) in Britain want to remain in the EU

I don't know why you think those who want to remain in the EU are "progressives". Arguably, people who want to leave - or want a different EU - are the progressives.

Anyhoo. The EU's insistence in the Northern Ireland Backstop is hugely divisive, and an indication that they (the EU) are content to hobble the UK in future trade deals by threatening to break up the UK. The more I see of the EU Commission and the scant disregard for the common good of both the EU and the UK, the more I see that the Brexiteers were right - and here I am a person who voted to stay.

With friends like the EU, who needs enemies, eh? Certainly, in the way the Republic of Ireland is acting I would completely review relations post Brexit, including tearing up some of the previous arrangements - like preferential treatment of citizens of the Republic.

What exactly do you mean when you say the way Ireland is acting?

What exactly have they done apart from insist Britain recognises it's legal commitment in the Ireland peace treaty to no hard border?


Do you feel it was appropriate for the British conservative to threaten to 'starve Ireland into submission' if they didn't start being more supportive of us? Given the history of Westminster starving Irish people into genocide?

Do you feel having threatened to starve their people into submission, that the people Ireland should be polite to us in return?

originally posted by: eletheia
The backstop is not the favoured policy of the EU it is a last resort an

insurance policy? Only to be used when the UK gets out of the EU line.....

It will be used to threaten the UK to conform to what they want. Can you imagine discussion on fisheries. The EU will say "...this is what we want and if we don't get it", then voila it's the Backstop, or "...if we don't get this, that or the other ". It's putting the UK in a disadvantageous position in any trade negotiations, by introducing a gun to the head.

a reply to: DigginFoTroof

-Country voted to leave
-EU doesn't want anyone to leave b/c that would set a precident for nations leaving the union
-Progressive (liberals) in Britain want to remain in the EU
-The result of the Brexit negotiations resulted in a horrible deal for Britain thus making leaving the EU VERY distasteful if not painful - probably to make an example.
-Negotiations may have been sabotaged by both parties (EU and progressives in Britain)
-Terrible exit package is resulting in a call for a new "Brexit" vote to see if people still want to leave after seeing what may lie ahead -Possible new vote to continue Brexit or remain

That pretty much sums it up for me , except for the Progressive (liberals) bit , I think that's a bit simplistic.

It wouldn't surprise me to find the chaos is by design to frighten the population into having another go at giving the correct answer .... we love our EU overlords.

In Juncker and Tusk we trust.

originally posted by: Painterz
What exactly do you mean when you say the way Ireland is acting?

I said the Republic of Ireland and not "Ireland".

Do you feel it was appropriate for the British conservative to threaten to 'starve Ireland into submission' if they didn't start being more supportive of us? Given the history of Westminster starving Irish people into genocide?

That was a bit of fake news, as detailed by the Irish Indie

All Patel had said to a reporter, when commenting on a leaked UK government document showing that Irish GDP could fall 7pc in the aftermath of a hard Brexit, was: "This paper appears to show the government were well aware Ireland will face significant issues in a no-deal scenario. Why hasn't this point been pressed home during the negotiations? ."

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin
Scotland will not build another Royal Navy ship if you leave the UK I can tell you that with certainty.
People at the top are adamant.
...and so what if you Jocks move down here with the new jobs in SW England? Still a boost to the economy more people earning and spending cash.
I'd welcome your ship building people, the Clyde will be #ed though lol

originally posted by: DigginFoTroof
So this is what Brexit looks like from an outside perspective.

-Country voted to leave
-EU doesn't want anyone to leave b/c that would set a precident for nations leaving the union
-Progressive (liberals) in Britain want to remain in the EU
-The result of the Brexit negotiations resulted in a horrible deal for Britain thus making leaving the EU VERY distasteful if not painful - probably to make an example.
-Negotiations may have been sabotaged by both parties (EU and progressives in Britain)
-Terrible exit package is resulting in a call for a new "Brexit" vote to see if people still want to leave after seeing what may lie ahead
-Possible new vote to continue Brexit or remain


From the outside this really looks like "we didn't like the way the first vote went, so we will drag our feet, not do our job(s) and see if we can't make people loose heart/interest in this scheme". I'm not knocking Britain or the people there (even the politicians) as we seem to have people of the same mindset in the states - they won't accept election results but when the shoe is on the other foot, they are vicious if there is any questioning or dissension (to the point of pushing law suits).

It really shows their true colors doesn't it.

Is that a fair analysis of what is going on? I'm sure there are more details involved, I know there are major issues with the financial markets, residency (for both EU and GB citizens), border w/n Ireland and a number of other things. But overall, what I outlined seems an apt description. Can anyone comment on this?

Just to comment on 2 of your points.

Brexit isn't a left/ right issue, it crosses the political spectrum. Amongst MPs the most pro and most anti EU tend to be in the right wing conservative party.

In terms of the negotiations being sabotaged I have seen this statement a number of times but no one ever seems to suggest what an acceptable compromise deal would be. What ever form of leave is agreed there is going to be far more people who disagree with than support it.

a reply to: CornishCeltGuy

Scotland will not build another Royal Navy ship if you leave the UK I can tell you that with certainty.

No actually you can't.

You also can't say that they will move down.

Dude its not even an argument its just the way the world works, SW England does not have the skills base anymore nor the infrastructure to suddenly start building Royal Navy War Ships in the event Scotland leave the union.

You can argue it until your blue in the face but it does not change the reality.

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

Dude it is the policy of the Royal Navy that all ships are built domestically.
The Clyde will never build another UK ship if you leave the union.
Unlucky.

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

Lastly and most obviously, the UK has just had two massive air craft carriers built in the Clyde so your not going to be getting a massive contract like that any time soon.

Bit of a pipe dream to think that Scottish independence then would instantly revitalise shipping in England.

Royal Navy contracts expected to be worth more than £1bn have been awarded to three UK shipyards.

Defence Minister Stuart Andrew announced the deals covering 17 ships to support marine services jobs in Birkenhead, Falmouth and Tyneside.

The successful companies will service and fit the ships with the latest equipment and systems, he said.

Cammell Laird is set to receive £620m to support Royal Fleet Auxiliary tankers and £240m to A&P in Falmouth.

A further £150m has been earmarked for UK Docks in Tyneside to support two survey ships and an ice patrol vessel.

Chief executive of the Merseyside ship building and repair yard, John Kennedy, said winning two 10-year contracts was a "massive boost".

www.bbc.co.uk...


Not dead in the water yet

a reply to: ScepticScot

I'd like to know how much weight the PES umbrella membership carries within the Labour party . The PES were against Brexit , they probably would stop it if they could , as well. Maybe that's because they imagine that all that European power they helped develop by sitting at certain tables could be wielded for socialist ends , I don't know ?

originally posted by: CornishCeltGuy
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

Dude it is the policy of the Royal Navy that all ships are built domestically.
The Clyde will never build another UK shipping if you leave the union.
Unlucky.

Yes and they can have that policy because they have the skills base on the Clyde to ensure that they can manufacture their own warships domestically but if you remove that infrastructure and skills base then its gone and you are forced to accept that you have to continue to develop on the Clyde until such a time that infrastructure and skills are in place. There is a commitment from BAE to to have ships built on the Clyde that basically says they are fully booked up to 2030 thats doesn't change if Scotland goes independent because those contracts are in place.

Again you are wrong on this.

Just face it.

You cannot magic up a skilled work force and infrastructure over night.

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin
Dude its not even an argument its just the way the world works, SW England does not have the skills base anymore nor the infrastructure to suddenly start building Royal Navy War Ships in the event Scotland leave the union.

While warship manufacturing has been centred on the Clyde, there are facilities and skills elsewhere in the UK. A&P, Cammell Laird, Harland and Wolff to name but three locations. Submarines are manufactured in Barrow-in-Furness. In fact, the new Type 31 frigate may not be built in Scotland at all, regardless of the politics.

a reply to: eletheia

The point is this.

BAE have the Clyde fully booked basically until 2030, that doesn't change if Scotland go independent.

You can't just magic up a new ship yard over night to make up for that shortfall.