Congress warned North Korean EMP attack would kill '90% of all Americans'

a reply to: Zaphod58

i know that but some people were convinced that similar such weapons were used a few times so you never know.

a reply to: namehere

Some people are convinced it was a nuclear weapon any time there's a large explosion.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: namehere

They used conventional weapons designed to take out power systems in Iraq.

Hell of a lot slower to get back to a working condition, compared to electronic boards and software.

a reply to: Xtrozero

It also allows for much more selective targeting.

90% mortality rate does indeed sound high. However...

-the 2008 EMP commission report focused on the effect of an EMP on America's pipelines. The bulk of our domestic crude is shipped to refineries on a pipeline. At least every 3-10 mile (sometimes for a thousand miles or more), there is a pumping station and pressure control valves. Rendering that equipment inert will shut down the pipeline. And all the valves have to be fixed to pipe oil or gas again. With no refining going on, the repair trucks will run out of gas.

-Most of your food comes from 100+ miles away. This is true for most folks living in rural areas and small towns. Those who live in food producing areas tend to live in monoculture; i.e., one crop is produced, say corn or potatoes or cattle. Without irrigation (fueled by natural gas from a pipeline), farm yields will plummet. And without fertilizer plants and transport networks, food production will plummet even more. Not to mention the tractors that plow the land, and the harvesting equipment that will come to a screeching halt. There aren't enough horses to harvest the grain with animal power. US corn yields will drop from 120 bushels/acre back down to 40 bushels/acre, and acreage will shrink to what a family can gather with their hands before the crop rots in the field.

-without electricity-powered refrigeration, every type I diabetic will be at risk. That's 1.25 million Americans, right there. And without insulin, their clock is ticking. Probably another 5-8 million Americans use portable oxygen tanks. More than 15 million Americans are cpap dependent. All of those people will be at risk.

-without more gasoline, ambulance and fire trucks will be seriously (or totally) curtailed. So every fire is a potential mass inferno. Every fall, every broken limb, is a potential death-spiral. And without a fully stocked pharmacy nearby, there is no more pre-sterilized bandages, no antibiotics, no cough syrup. Every instance of what had been a minor ailment is now a potential killer. Every surgery will be high risk at that point.

-as sewer systems fail, people will start crapping on the ground, in out of the way spots. But after the first big rain, typhoid, cholera, dysentery, etc as people haul water in buckets from nearby lakes and streams. How many people will not wash their hands after pooping, with no running water? And how soon before your local lake is polluted by the neighbor kids pooping while they fill their buckets at the shoreline. Most American soldiers have died of camp sickness, not combat. That's because soldiers in the field are in a survival situation...

Many folks have fireplaces in their homes; but those are largely ornamental, and often decrease the winter temperature inside, by sucking cold air into the home as they vent hot air out the chimney. Many domestic fireplaces can only heat one room, not a house. And the next winter, how many people will fell a cord of wood, without a chainsaw? and once most of the nearby trees have been felled for fuel, people will have to walk further and further for their next war fire.

a lot of older Americans are only alive because of reliable air conditioning. Even a brief heatwave can kill dozens on its march across the US. No more AC means that life expectancy will drop in the southern USA.

These ideas don't really apply to ATSers, who are a bunch of preppers who have already moved out of the city and already grow the bulk of the food they eat. But the rest of America, say, the other 90%...?

originally posted by: tovenar

90% mortality rate does indeed sound high. However...


These ideas don't really apply to ATSers, who are a bunch of preppers who have already moved out of the city and already grow the bulk of the food they eat. But the rest of America, say, the other 90%...?

Wow sounds really bad...BUT, it isn't! Not Really...here's why...

The scenario you speak of depends on taking out the electrical power grid across an entire continent...not as easy as you think. Firstly, there are three power grids; Eastern US, Western US, and Texas (I live in Texas)

An EMP, no matter the size / strength, cannot change the laws of physics..so while that nuclear power plant is off-line, along with the gas fired one, all of the Hydroelectric power plants will still work, and while not enough power for everybody, they can still power a FAST rebuild...and really, all that needs to be done is to perform what will probably be minor repairs to grid switching equipment...and all power is restored...in just a few weeks.

There will still be plenty of fuel for cars, trucks, etc. in storage tanks all over the country...Oh I know, you're thinking "no power = no pumps"...NOT TRUE! Right along with the "no power" issue...basically non-existent.

In our home we depend on electricty, I'm a retired Electrical / Software Engineer, and truly love my technology...none of that will be affected by NK's EMP! Why? I have backup power available from devices that an EMP can't harm...a currently off-line AC generator (technically thats an alternator..) IF we were to loose power for an extended period, and there was little hope of a fast "restore"; we could use that genny to power our entire home...that backup system would be completely unaffected. Such back-up systems are common...even a nuclear power plant has one, so that they can have local control while "off-line".

Our "this century" car and truck might have difficulty, but my much older sports car should run just fine...as long as we have fuel.

Basically, all the EMP doom porn is a very large load of BS. The reason is because of HOW an EMP works; In my Electrical Engineering education we learned that a current can be induced into a conductor either by moving that conductor through a magnetic field, or, by moving the magnetic field over the conductor. An EMP works by producing a "pulse" which "moves" over conductors. All kinds of conductors...most of them very short, thus a smaller current induced. Some of the induced current will cancel other induced currents. The long and the short of this is that much of the existing technology will not be damaged as the popular thought is, but will only be rendered inert due to no electrical power. And, as I have tride to point out, that isn't really much of a problem as a significant amount of power will be unaffectedd, and only require the "resetting of circuit breakers" to restore grid power.

So...how many of us old folk, down here in the south are going to be in danger?

originally posted by: majickJimi

The scenario you speak of depends on taking out the electrical power grid across an entire continent...not as easy as you think.

.

A 75 megaton warhead, disguised as a satellite, detonated 100 miles above central Kansas, would disable every pipeline network in the Midwest; cutting off all of chicago, much of New York, and about 80% of Americas refining capacity---and all her means to transport it across the interior by rail or pipe.

so while that nuclear power plant is off-line, along with the gas fired one, all of the Hydroelectric power plants will still work,

But with all transformers blown, no way to transmit power in high voltage lines....

and while not enough power for everybody, they can still power a FAST rebuild...and really, all that needs to be done is to perform what will probably be minor repairs to grid switching equipment...and all power is restored...in just a few weeks.

Actually, every transformer in the affected area will need to be replaced first. and in the meantime, no new gasoline or diesel being refined....

There will still be plenty of fuel for cars, trucks, etc. in storage tanks all over the country...Oh I know, you're thinking "no power = no pumps"...NOT TRUE! Right along with the "no power" issue...basically non-existent.

The "strategic reserves" owned by the US govt could not cover hurricane Katrina knocking out every refinery on the gulf coast one summer. The price of gas went up a dollar a gallon--in 2005 dollars. How about when national capacity is permanently reduced by 80-90%?

If the Tulsa and New Orleans/Houston pipe networks go offline simultaneously....

In our home we depend on electricty, I'm a retired Electrical / Software Engineer, and truly love my technology...none of that will be affected by NK's EMP! Why? I have backup power available from devices that an EMP can't harm...a currently off-line AC generator (technically thats an alternator..) IF we were to loose power for an extended period, and there was little hope of a fast "restore"; we could use that genny to power our entire home...that backup system would be completely unaffected. Such back-up systems are common...even a nuclear power plant has one, so that they can have local control while "off-line".

What does your home generator run on, when it's on-line? Natural Gas? From a utility, via a pipeline? Or maybe you have a positive pressure gas well in your yard?

Basically, all the EMP doom porn is a very large load of BS.

Conjecture on your part, as much as the opposing viewpoint is on my part.

What is the price of being wrong?

The long and the short of this is that much of the existing technology will not be damaged as the popular thought is, but will only be rendered inert due to no electrical power. And, as I have tride to point out, that isn't really much of a problem as a significant amount of power will be unaffectedd, and only require the "resetting of circuit breakers" to restore grid power.

every wire will act as an antenna in that moment. The longer the wire, the more powerful the pulse. All those high voltage and super high voltage lines don't have a surge protector of that magnitude for every transformer. Like a lightning bolt hitting a transformer.

So...how many of us old folk, down here in the south are going to be in danger?

Hopefully, you'll never know.

I'm prepared to pay the price of being wrong about an EMP. Hours of effort and couple of hundred bucks wasted. Needless time spent practicing with the wife and kids, camping, gardening, hunting and preparing our own food. Teaching the kids to be independent. Getting EMT certification...

On the other hand, What about if you are wrong--are you ready to pay that price?

originally posted by: tovenar

A 75 megaton warhead, disguised as a satellite, detonated 100 miles above central Kansas, would disable every pipeline network in the Midwest; cutting off all of chicago, much of New York, and about 80% of Americas refining capacity---and all her means to transport it across the interior by rail or pipe.

Well actually, not so much as you thing. An air burst that low will have a relatively small area of effect. So, while Kansas will do down, and prolly the Western power grid...the rest of us will simply say "Damn, sucks to be them!" Mainly because the Eastern US and ALL of Texas will be un affected, well except for the terrible news about the disaster up in Kansas.

And, yeah, pipe lines across the Midwest may take a hit, but, it will be small except for the loss of electrical power. The trains? Won't care a whit!

But with all transformers blown, no way to transmit power in high voltage lines....

What transformers? Except for a very few IN KANSAS (only) the grid will go down due to a cascade effect, most of the equipment is designed to handle such a failure, and thus won't take significant damage. The positive thing here is that your 100mi detonation will be fully recovered from in probably less than 8 weeks.

Actually, every transformer in the affected area will need to be replaced first. and in the meantime, no new gasoline or diesel being refined....

Actually, partial power can be restored immediately, and, only those relatively small areas / locals where equipment was actually damaged will take some time...only an inconvenience!

The "strategic reserves" owned by the US govt could not cover hurricane Katrina knocking out every refinery on the gulf coast one summer. The price of gas went up a dollar a gallon--in 2005 dollars. How about when national capacity is permanently reduced by 80-90%?

If the Tulsa and New Orleans/Houston pipe networks go offline simultaneously....

Well I wasn't referring to the "strategic reserves", but rather the fuel already in the ground at gas stations ALL OVER...hell I live in a small town and I've kind of sure you will find 10's of thousands of gallons of fuel right here...And, so what if the price of gas goes to over $4.00, we would be in a state of national emergency, it almost seems reasonable!

The ability to produce fuel both in Texas and Louisiana would be almost entirely unaffected by your proposed scenario. The detonation is far too low in altitude (4 times that altitude and you can start talking ).

And while Tulsa may have power issues (that damn cascade thing), Texas, and Louisiana will not, and the production of fuel will go on with little affect.


Oh, and those pipelines? They will not be damaged, and will only be off-line. Replace a few transformers, and its all good.

What does your home generator run on, when it's on-line? Natural Gas? From a utility, via a pipeline? Or maybe you have a positive pressure gas well in your yard?

My generator run on good ole gasoline
, no natural gas, no pipeline, no unnecessary BS required, y'all know how long one of those will fun on 55 gallons?

"Basically, all the EMP doom porn is a very large load of BS.
"

Conjecture on your part, as much as the opposing viewpoint is on my part.

Well, actually, far less conjecture on my part, and a whole lot more science and engineering.

every wire will act as an antenna in that moment. The longer the wire, the more powerful the pulse. All those high voltage and super high voltage lines don't have a surge protector of that magnitude for every transformer. Like a lightning bolt hitting a transformer.

It is true that every wire will act as an antenna (though "conductor" would be more appropriate than "wire")
, the thing is though, most of the "wire" we use in our electronic devices (from your phone to your PC, to your car, etc.) have conductor lengths that are short enough to remove most of the threat of an EMP...these devices simply won't care...
and will keep functioning normally.

As far as the transmission lines go; they most certainly DO have surge protectors capable of handling the electric field reaching the ground, but then these surge protectors are designed to protect from lightening, and not the relatively low voltage associated with an EMP (and an EMP at 100 miles would produce approximately 50k - 100k volts / m, not really much compared to a lightening strike that may be in the millions of volts)

On the other hand, What about if you are wrong--are you ready to pay that price?

Pay the price of being wrong? I've been prepared for that my entire life! But, on the other hand, I've also spent a great deal of time learning, and practicing my profession, just so that I won't be wrong (Electrical / Software Engineer 45+ years). That maybe works sometimes. sometimes not so much.

The thing is; all the doom porn around the EMP is not supported by science.

Now, IF you were to move that detonation to say 300miles, then you could have a serious issue...but, that would have global effect. For instance communications on a global scale would fail as many to most satellites would be destroyed, and that would have as much affect on the attacker as on the attacked...lots of very good reasons NOT to do such a thing.

Oh, and at that altitude...it would still only take out the power grids, most cars, trucks, trains, etc. would keep running, most of our ground based communication would continue to work (at least "local" phone service including cell service), almost all of our electronic devices would continue unaffected. Long distance telephone calls, international calls, Internet; very problematic, and spotty.

Here is an article y'all should read: Nuclear Electromagnetic Pulse

And as for all that perp, training you speak of...been there, done that, had fun...that was half a lifetime ago.

Had a buddy, A Marine in a special position, years ago spill some secrets when we went out and he got tanked.
Was a story of a division of soldiers, located in the mountains near the east coast. Top Secret of course. Their sole mission was to take out leadership of groups in a disaster scenario to guarantee continuity of government. He was a real honest guy.

Just thought this fit here

originally posted by: liejunkie01
I guess it's a good thing I live in the middle of corn fields.

So the 90% deal is city folk right. You know the ones against the second amendment. Or is it wrong of me to assume that?

But isn't this whole article, story, warning an assumption?

On the other hand, I guess the Amish will be just fine.

Do you have flood irrigation? Most here require deep wells.

a reply to: TinySickTears

I once spoke with an old S.W. Pacific warrior. Long pig won't put meat on your bones, but you won't starve, either.

a reply to: majickJimi

I thought an EMP would damage all the transformers?

a reply to: majickJimi

If you actually read the EMP commission report, the authors are the ones who bring up SCADA networks collapsing and taking out pipelines, and production in Texas and Louisiana.

As far as the underground fuel tanks at your local gas station, how often do they have to be refilled? Because that's how long they'll provide fuel---24 hours to 5 days...

Most of your arguments are along the lines of "it wouldn't be that big of a deal" because you NEED it to not be a significant problem.

a reply to: tovenar

No worries.
North Korea no longer poses a threat.

a reply to: seasonal

81% of the population live in cities in the US. Without electricity for food preservation and fuel production to transport food into cities this 90% is fairly accurate.

The only question is, does North Korea have the capability to EMP the entire power grid?

An EMP is the least of my worries considering this:

The 1859 Carrington Event

Man can be stopped..... the Sun not so much

originally posted by: tovenar
a reply to: majickJimi

If you actually read the EMP commission report, the authors are the ones who bring up SCADA networks collapsing and taking out pipelines, and production in Texas and Louisiana.

As far as the underground fuel tanks at your local gas station, how often do they have to be refilled? Because that's how long they'll provide fuel---24 hours to 5 days...

Most of your arguments are along the lines of "it wouldn't be that big of a deal" because you NEED it to not be a significant problem.

Well firstly, I don't need the "EMP Commission" report to know the reality of the science and engineering behind and EMP.

Abd, my arguments are strictly from an engineering point of view. The hard reality is that even a 75MTdevice detonated at 400km would still not affect anything but the power grids, and, with the protections already installed, they would likely only need to be reset (lots of "thrown" breakers).

Small electronic devices from your watch, phone, pc, right up to your car will be mainly unaffected by such a pulse. What will be affected is anything with long conductors...power grids...primarily. Your pipelines won't be affected except as far as external electrical power is concerned, the dame goes for virtually every other electrical device.

Space systems will also be affected, since the detonation is so high (altitude) many space borne systems may be damaged, though mostly from the explosion...solar arrays may not fare so well either.

Your SCADA network; will probably need to be reset though once power is restored. And, BTW, it is unlikely that an EMP could take out all three power grids at once, and most of the damage would be from cascade effects on given grids.

The restoration of "primary" power would only take hours to perhaps days, secondary power perhaps longer. But, we already know what it takes to rebuild a power grid that has suffered more damage than an EMP can deliver...so...

originally posted by: vonclod
a reply to: majickJimi

I thought an EMP would damage all the transformers?

Endanger all transformers, however, many (though not the one on your house) have surge protection. Though that is mainly to protect the power generation plants, and their interface to the power grid.

a reply to: majickJimi

Small electronic devices from your watch, phone, pc, right up to your car will be mainly unaffected by such a pulse

False.
You seem to be confusing the E3 pulse (the geomagnetic "heave") with the E1 pulse (the high energy blast of electromagnetic radiation). The E1 is bad for unhardened electronics.
www.futurescience.com...

It is true that the E3 pulse (like a geomagnetic storm) will not affect electronics (unless they happen to be plugged in at the time). But the real problem with E3 and power grids is not the voltage surge (not all that much, a few hundred volts maybe) but that it is a very low frequency current, essentially DC. DC currents cause havoc with our AC power grid. About the only thing that can be done about that is to shut the power down before the heave hits. With a geomagnetic storm that's feasible. With a nuclear EMP, not so much.

Lol, 90% of dead Americans from EMP blast will be Americans killing each other. So they say. Good job Government. GJ.